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Eagle’s Geopolitical Eye

Nadir Mir presenting his book, 'Gwadar on the Global Chessboard to the Ambassador of Turkmenistan H.E Atadjan Movlamov 

Russian celebration of Great Patriotic War

Nadir Mir with Russian Ambassador H.E Alexey Y. Dedov and General Sallahuddin Satti
Nadir Mir presenting his book 'Geopolitik Pakistan' to Russian Ambassador H.E Alexey Y. Dedov
With Russian Diplomat and Defence Attaches

Brigadier Nadir Mir at Punjab University.

Middle East War and Pakistan
Nadir Mir
A new war is brewing in the Middle East. Some analysts have compared it to 1914 commencing into the Great War. This Great War of the Middle East may engulf adjoining regions and will certainly influence most of the world. Pakistan of course would be affected in multiple ways and simply cannot afford to be a silent spectator. The Middle East Geopolitical environment is quite complicated. Unlike other wars, the belligerents, alliances are not cast iron. The battle lines are frequently blurred, friends and foes are at times overlapping with fluid alliances. A host of state actors both regional and global are involved besides ever increasing legions of militant non state actors.
On the Eastern flank of the Middle East and outside the mouth of the Gulf, most strategically located is Pakistan. It is not merely a South Asian Nation but Pakistan is the central state of many regions (Middle East / West Asia, Central Asia, China and South Asia). Geo-strategically Pakistan is the ‘Bridge State’ but also ‘Interposing State’ of multi regions. This concept has been explained at length in both my books, ‘Gwadar on the Global Chess board’ and ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’.
The soldiers and people of Pakistan are united to defend Pakistan, its interests and allies. COAS Pakistan General Raheel Sharif had aptly said that the entire nation stands with the Armed Forces. The internal enemies, terrorists are being systematically defeated in Pakistan. The soldiers of Pakistan are the defenders – saviours led by the brave chief. Pakistan has the potential of not only guarding itself but as the defender of Saudi Arabia and protector of peace along with Turkey in the region. Pakistan is a strategic ally of Saudi Arabia/GCC; therefore it cannot be pragmatically neutral in any conflict. It is Pakistan’s national interest to support Saudi Arabia/GCC. The millions of Pakistanis workers in the region remit billions of dollars which are part of Pakistan’s economy and livelihood of tens of millions within Pakistan. The evacuation of Pakistani and other nationalities from Yemen is an indicator of Pakistan’s proactive role in West Asia. Pakistan is determined to contribute for peace in the region.
Middle East Multiple Wars
The first problem in the Middle East is that multiple wars have been fought simultaneously with many of them overlapping. Unfortunately, ‘Everybody is virtually fighting with Everybody!’ 
First, it is a clash involving major state actors – Saudi Arabia / GCC, Iran, Israel, Egypt, Turkey, left over Syria – Iraq, Yemen and others. Second, a bewildering array of militant non state actors has sprouted over previous decades. Hizbullah, Hanmas, Al Nusrah, Al- Qaeda, ISIS (non state actor – state actor combined), Houthis to name a few. These ‘Instant Armies’ though asymmetrical are supported by various groups of local populace, regional state actors and extra regional powers. Third, though the Cold War is over for over two decades, US and Russia – China are frequently on opposite sides in the Middle East.  
America’s Middle East Policy
USA is playing multiple games in the Middle East. American policy in the Middle East was based on three pillars, oil – Israel and conservative Arab States. All three have taken a jolt. The old American Middle East narrative has not been replaced by a new narrative. Besides the Middle East environment has become more complex than ever. America’s two Gulf War in Iraq, destroyed the old order without creating a new one. The Arab Spring has partly fizzled out or deflected into civil strife. US – Israel relations have nosed dived. President Obama’s Nuclear Deal with Iran is vehemently opposed by PM Netanyahu of Israel.
Oil, while still critical for USA and the world is at a remarkably low price. Conjectured that the aim of low oil prices is to deprive Russia, Iran not to fill their coffers till the brim. Shale gas advent in Continental USA may have also marginally reduced the appetite for Middle East oil. The conservative Arab Regimes were also shocked by the Arab Spring. The main Middle East dictatorships in Iraq, Egypt, Libya have vanished. The monarchies are now under threat. The Pentagon led by prudent General Dempsey is implementing President Obama’s policy of avoiding misadventures. In any event, the American public opinion is more riveted on the need to contain Islamic State than elsewhere.
Unintended consequences (read Bush Administration) blunders at Geopolitical Chess are quite evident. In fact, President Obama has correctly tried to bring USA out of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Perhaps former Defence Secretary Robert Gates’ warning of ‘not getting involved in Land War in Asia’ is being heeded. The reluctance to commit US boots on ground to fight ISIS in Iraq or Houthis in Yemen may be due to war weariness and financial constraints. Else the US ‘Of Shore Balancing’ strategy using Naval Forces, Air Power, Special Forces while employing local land forces or allies for Geopolitical ends is in practice!
US – Iran Nuclear Deal
It may satisfy US – EU and Iran but may not convince Iran’s other foes.
-        Israel is preparing to strike Iran supported by pro Israel US lobby. Republicans are hoping to take the White House in 2016. Even if they don’t the Congress remains Pro Israel.
-        Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and smaller Arab States would seek their own nuclear arsenals or at least a nuclear umbrella. The only nuclear protector can be Pakistan. A nuclear armed Iran suits no one, not even Iranians. A Nuclear Iran will lead to a denuclearizing war against Iran by Israel and others.
The Arab States fear US – Iran nuclear deal. They dread that it will free Iran to make the bomb due to no sanctions but more funds. Iran’s foreign policy is also perceived in Arab Streets and capitals as aggressive.
Arab View – Neo Persian Empire?
This majority Arab View is that Tehran’s Realist Foreign Policy (rivaling Washington in its Real Politik) is using Shia militants/proxies as spearheads. An Arab World View sees the ultimate and ulterior inspiration of a new Persian Empire with Shia colouring. This ancient Arab – Ajami (Persian) clash seems to be rekindled by both regional and extra regional forces. The double pronged Iran backed militants fighting in Iraq and Yemen raises the specter of strategic encirclement in Riyadh. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Commander General Solemani was reportedly leading the charge in the crucial battle of Tikrit. The fall of Tikrit to Iranian backed Iraqi forces and the aftermath of looting – anarchy has redoubled the fears of the Arabs in the Arabian Peninsula.
The threat from the Gulf is unabated in Saudi minds. A fresh Iranian sponsored militant offensive is feared with Bahrain as the spring board. Boastful Iranian claims of controlling four Arab capitals, Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sanna confirmed the Saudi Arab view of a Neo Persian Empire rising. A Shia minority dominating the larger Sunni Muslim world is their spectre. Even though later responsible Iranian leaders rejected such claims the damage has been done to widen Arab – Persian Schism. At its peak, the Old Persian Empire stretched from Egypt and Greece to China. Any such inspiration today will lead to a larger Middle East War. Iran has multiple and powerful enemies. An attempt by Tehran to dominate the region will draw a backlash. Saudi Arabia and Israel will strike back (Saudi Arabia and Israel conflicting with Iran will be an utter failure for Tehran’s Geo-strategy). Ultimately USA will join Israel even if it does not join Saudi Arabia’s war with Iran. China – Russia will support Iran but not go to war for it. In the final analysis, Iran may find itself alone, with non state actors, militants confronting the Arab World, Israel, USA and EU. This is a worst case scenario from Tehran’s point of view. Iran must temper its ambitions and cannot engage in a great Middle East War which will lead to its utter grief.
Saudi Arabia
The proverbial sleeping giant is awakening, still it needs support. Saudi – Pakistan fusion can be pure synergism. As per an Indian author, ‘A match made in Heavens! (The Indians are always petrified by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia aligning in any capacity). The ‘Salman Doctrine’ is proactive. The young Defence Minister determined to defend Saudi Arabia.
‘Still the proud and noble Arabs, with their great sense of honour, are a force for global temperate. The time honoured rustic wisdom of the Bedouin is the recipe and not conflicting, alien, adventurist Geo-strategy!’
(Extract from the book, Geopolitik Pakistan by Nadir Mir)                                                                                                      
Saudi Arabia is rightfully determined to maintain balance of power. (Guaranteed with Pak – Turk affinity). Even if Riyadh considers Uncle Sam the ultimate supporter, it is not the initial protector any longer!
Tehran has been wise to conclude the nuclear deal. ‘Next War Iran’ (my article previously published from Pravda Moscow) has been postponed for now. Removal of sanctions will improve economic condition in Iran. Still Pakistan – Turkish diplomacy should be accepted by Iran in the interest of peace and stability. Pakistan even while defending Saudi Arabia is not Iran’s foe. In fact the Shia – Sunni is a non issue, because all citizens of Pakistan are equal. Those who target Shias in Pakistan are terrorists and the Pakistan State will defeat them. However, Iran’s ambitions have to be checked is not only an Arab, Israel, Western view but larger global opinion. Tehran must leash all militants destabilizing the Middle East and help usher in peace. Pakistan’s diplomatic cooperation should make Tehran realize that distance from India is in its interests. India remains Pakistan’s existential enemy; therefore Iran should not strategize with Delhi. Pakistan can mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia and even US – Iran to an extent.
The first threat to Turkey is Kurdistan. Those who sponsor Kurdistan also destabilize Pakistan’s Baluchistan. Turkish – Pakistan alliance will further cement for mutual benefit. Both will defend Saudi Arabia; mediate for peace in Iran and stability in the larger Middle East. Turkish – Pakistan Kardeshlik (brotherhood) is now evolving into a greater strategic consensus. The contours of a triple alliance between Saudi Arabia/GCC, Pakistan and Turkey are visible. It may have been unthinkable considering the Ottoman Empire legacy (Lawrence of Arabia peddling) but Geopolitics has its own logic. In any case, Pakistan is the strategic linkage for both Saudi Arabia and Turkey.   
Israel’s War with Iran
Israel has been planning, preparing and rehearsing to launch strikes against Iran’s nuclear projects for ages. The nuclear deal has been rejected by Israel.  Tel Aviv demands Tehran’s recognition of Israel, which the Iranians finds anathema and are loath to do. The nuclear deal makes it difficult but not impossible for Israel to provoke a war with Iran.   
Tel Aviv will provoke Iran, lure it with stratagems into a wider conflict with Arab States and raise a bogey of a Neo Persian Empire as threat to Israel and Arabs alike. If the culturally rich Iranian let the flames of the Middle East spread, then Israel will launch disarming strikes (on Iran’s nuclear projects). Even if Israeli strikes are a failure, Iran’s retaliation will start a larger war. US Congress will ensure that USA joins the war against Iran. So the thinking may go in parts of Tel Aviv.
Yemen is both a political and Geopolitical issue. It is a tribal and power struggle rather than a sectarian issue. Yemen is basically not a Shia – Sunni conflict. It is turning into a contest between Saudi Arabia and Iran contesting as they are on the larger Middle East Chessboard. Loyalists of President Hadi, even previous leader Saleh, Houthis, Al-Qaeda, militant forces were all fighting. In early April 2015, Yemen’s capital Sanna and strategic port Aden are in Houthis’ hands. Saudis Air Force along with coalition had enforced no fly zone and now both Saudi and Iranian Naval Forces are posturing around the Red Sea. Any Houthi or other militant attempt to attack Saudi Arabia should not be acceptable to Pakistan and Turkey. While Pakistan will defend Saudi Arabia, diplomacy with Iran is also underway. In fact, Pakistan’s policy is balanced. A twin track strategy to use military instruments to defend Saudi Arabia and diplomacy with Iran for peace and stability in the larger Middle East. Russia and China both stands for peace in the Middle East and should be co opted in Pakistani diplomacy.
The New Thirty Years War or Ralph Peter Map?
A chorus of mostly western voices is terming the Middle East inferno with various analogies. Richard Hass President Counsel of foreign relations had labeled it ‘The New Thirty Years War’. Other thinkers have followed suit. It may suit some extra regional forces to see the Middle East Muslim World at war with itself. The Thirty Years War (1618 – 1648) was a struggle over political – religious order of Central Europe. It resulted in the treaty of Westphalia and led to the emergence of modern nation states.
The infamous Ralph Peter’s Map of a balkanized Middle East may have suited Neocons and globalists but does not suit peace and stability in the larger Middle East.
Skeptics warns of the notion of ‘Controlled Chaos’ converting into ‘Uncontrolled Chaos!’ An arc of destabilization may have been planned from Nile to Indus (Egypt to Pakistan). By the same token, today the pillars of stabilizing the greater Middle East will now be Pakistan and Turkey (the flanking powers of the region). The conflict being waged from Basra to Bruit and in Yemen will have to conclude. The 1916 Sykes Picot agreement was to carve out British, French spheres of influence at the cost of the Ottoman Empire. Even if imperfect the nation states of Middle East today cannot be left to the vicious appetite of militant non state actors.
Imperfect partition was also the fate of the subcontinent. The British Radcliffe Award should have awarded Gurdaspur – Pathankot region to Pakistan. Kashmir and a part of East Punjab which were denied was Pakistan’s due share at partition 1947. This would have brought peace in South Asia.
Pakistan stands for Peace and Stability in the Middle East  
Essence of Pakistan’s Geo strategy
(From the Book Geopolitik Pakistan by Nadir Mir)
·         Defend and stabilize Saudi Arabia / GCC
·         Strategize with Turkey and China
·         Diplomatic parlays with Iran
·         Develop Gwadar and coast to become a maritime power and protector of Gulf States
·         Build full spectrum, maximum assured nuclear deterrence
·         Pakistan statecraft should make it a key Gulf and Middle East player.
Pakistan is destined to rise as a Regional Power and Great Nation.
Brigadier Nadir Mir (R) is author of the books “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard” and ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’
His blogs are, Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics.
Blog on Face book, ‘Revolutionary Pakistan’
He is working for the national cause.



Brigadier Nadir Mir as a guest speaker and co-author at book launching. 

Nadir Mir with Brigadier Ghazanfar, Brigadier Farooq Hameed, VC Mujajid Kamran and Mr. Niazi.
Brigadier Nadir Mir with Nawab Barozai


Brigadier Nadir Mir at Express Forum

Geopolitic India

Posted by Nadir Mir on Nov 13, 2014 in Special Studies Opinion Maker

Geopolitic India

by Brigadier Nadir Mir

Modi’s Hinduvta, old Indian dream of Akhand Bharat and recent obsession of Global India have all combined. The result is a new India, characterized by false over confidence, a grandiose (but unrealistic) global vision and unbridled regional hegemonistic ambitions. All this fusion by a Hindu religious – military – industrial – intelligentia complex, which equates Delhi with Washington, Beijing, Moscow and Tokyo. India’s self aggrandizement knows no bounds!
Buoyed by its rocket’s reach to Mars, the Indian leadership fancy themselves as a rising super power. Hopeful of a multi polar world in future, India seeks to dominate a ‘Greater South Asia’ zone of influence, even while contesting with the other great powers across the globe. For all these neo imperialist dreams to come true, the destruction of the first obstacle to India’s rise is paramount – Pakistan.
Yet for all its fault lines, post 9/11 suffering, political disarray and economic deprivation, the resilient nation of 200 million Pakistanis has stood steadfast like a rock. Sandwiched between US and NATO occupied Afghanistan and belligerent India, Pakistan has in fact proved to be an Interposing State.
Brave Pakistani nation spearheaded by its gallant army and is led by bold and brilliant Army Chief, General Raheel Sharif. After a protracted struggle of 13 years, US and NATO are withdrawing from Afghanistan. Pakistan’s professionally launched military operation Zarb-e- Azb is securing its western frontiers and aimed at internal peace and tranquility.
Unnerved by US withdrawal from Afghanistan, ISIS and other Islamic militant forces are reportedly planning attacks on India, even as Kashmir is boiling again. The heroic Kashmiris refused Indian aid despite super destructive floods. Militancy in Kashmir and Khalistan is likely to start again as Kashmir needs to join Pakistan and Khalistan seeks independence from the Indian Political Union. The stage managed and much trumpeted Modi’s visit in USA was also significant by the joint Kashmir – Khalistan protesters in USA against Indian tyranny and oppression.
Soon after Modi’s brief sojourn from across the Atlantic, Indian Army unleashed its fire power on innocent Pakistani civilians across the LOC and working boundary. The Indian guns only fall silent when Pakistani Forces retaliate in kind. China’s complaint of a new Indian road construction in disputed border region has been brushed aside. Delhi claims, it is too powerful to be warned by China. Recently, the Modi Regime in a huddle with top Indian military brass is upgrading its ‘Two Front War Plans’. Preparations for these two fronts and green light for further destabilizing Baluchistan and retarding Gwadar project had been given. And so it appears!
Unfortunately some among Pakistan’s political elite have not fully grasped the existential threat posed to Pakistan by India and now taken to the next level. It would be a revelation and instructive to fathom the real intent of the powers that be in Delhi.
Pankaj Mishra writes in New York Times in his article, ‘Modi’s Idea of India’,
‘Narendra Modi, India’s new Prime Minister and main ideologue of the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janta Party, is stroking old Hindu rage and shame over what he calls more than a thousand years of slavery under Muslim and British rule. Earlier this month, while India and Pakistan were engaging in their heaviest fighting in over a decade, Mr. Modi claimed that the “enemy” was now “screaming.”. . . . . . . .  . . . . .  . . . . . . . .  . . .  . . . .  . . . . . . . .  . celebrating the tests in speeches in the late 1990s, including one entitled “EK Aur Mahahharata (One More Mahabharata) . . . . . . . . . . . . . One can only hope that India’s democratic institutions are strong enough to constrain yet another wounded elite from breaking out for geopolitical and military manhood.”
The Chinese leadership in their great wisdom should be realizing that India is not peace seeking but plans on war waging! The Pakistani political elite should also realize that Pakistan does not need an ‘India Policy’ but Islamabad does need an ‘Anti India Policy’!!
India and Geopolitics
‘India is contained geologically by the Chinese – Pakistani coalition’.
(From the book, ‘Grand Chess board’ by Zbigniew Brzezinski)
This was conventional wisdom. But now India faces a three front scenario.
‘The reality is that India will face three front scenario, if it continues on its present course. India’s internal, militant, centrifugal, independence, separatist movements are gathering momentum. Its hostility with Pakistan and Cold War with China will further aggravate its internal discord’.
                                                                    (From the book, Geopolitik Pakistan by Nadir Mir)
India Faces Three Fronts
China, the Rising Giant in the north, India’s explosive internal front in centre and independent Pakistan in the west. Still even as India is likely to be overstretched on three fronts, Delhi’s neurotic obsession is hostility to Pakistan.
India’s think tanks, strategic intelligence community have different options for China’s growing power or India’s own restive, conflicting, centrifugal forces within India.
For Pakistan there is only one option – a policy of veiled confrontation.  Out of this Indian policy of confrontation, flows Delhi’s punitive strategy applied across the spectrum against Pakistan.
Diplomatically India tries to isolate Pakistan. Delhi’s diplomatic dance with USA, Japan is followed by an attempted tango with China, even while trying to maintain the old affair with Russia.
In Afghanistan, the American drawdown from Kabul is viewed as an opportunity to establish a second front against Pakistan with Delhi’s backing. Even the US – Iran détente, further bonded by the ISIS threat is seen by India as an opportunity. Delhi aims to build Chah Bahar Port, attempting to out flank Pakistan’s Gwadar Port and reach into Central Asia.
On the military front, India’s war preparations are rising and viewing 2016 – 2018 as possible war period with Pakistan. In the next 2 – 3 years, India is planning to upgrade its defensive – deterrence capability against China. Simultaneously, it develops proactive strategy and the tide of Hinduvta has blended to make some sort of ‘Cold Start’ doable in future, (a capability India clearly lacks in 2014). In India’s strategic thinking, China might not directly enter in to an Indo Pakistan War but Pakistan will enter in to an Indo – China War.
The 1962 Indian military debacle was a clear opportunity lost by Pakistan (even if Pakistan Army was not fully geared up then). 2015 onwards after US withdrawal from Afghanistan, America will be confronting Putin’s Russia in Europe. Likely to remain embroiled with ISIS and affiliates within larger Middle East – Africa. USA’s residual Geo-strategy will be taken over by Washington’s pivot to Asia. La containment of China or bolstering an anti China alliance in Far East along with India and Japan.
India may seek a military conflict with Pakistan in an upgraded version of Cold Start. India is clearly preparing for war with Pakistan in the near future, 2 to 3 years time frame. Else this war may come about by gross Indian miscalculation or provocation!
India’s most dreaded scenario
India’s most dreaded scenario is based on a multi front threat to India which is well within the realm of possibility. This is a combination of a military threat from Pakistan and China, coupled with an asymmetrical, militant Jihadi onslaught, plus the specter of rekindled freedom movements in Kashmir, Khalistan, Assam, Tamil Nadu and elsewhere.  Indian Muslims recoil at Hinduvta while Maoist’s rebel against unbridled capitalism.  A war India is destined to lose!
In essence, the indicators could be:
  • Pakistan Army’s Zar-b-Azb secures its western borders. US withdrawal from Afghanistan is replaced by pro Pakistan powers.
  • Gwadar is developed and Baluchistan stabilized. China’s investment and involvement in Baluchistan creates a new balance of power in Pakistan’s favour.
  • Pakistan Army relatively freed from its western border concentrates on Pakistan’s eastern border.
  • Kashmir is globalised and Pakistani nation mobilized for Kashmir’s liberation.
  • Kashmir and Khalistan freedom movements are synergized and have domino effect in Assam, Tamil Nadu and elsewhere in India.
  • Indian Muslim Militants inspired from bases in Afghanistan and Iraq wage struggle in India.
  • Pakistan selectively responds to India’s military buildup. In the next couple of years, PAF fighter jet fleet is augmented, even as Pakistan Navy acquires new submarines building up second strike capability, while Pakistan Army enhances its fire power and missile assets.
  • Pakistan and China strategize on a joint two front war against India.
  • Pakistan maintains friendship with USA, the western world even while cozying up with Russia. With China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, Pakistan’s strategic consensus increases to the next level. Relations with old friends like Indonesia are rekindled. The recent visit of
Pakistan’s COAS, a land mark in this context. The Pakistan Army Chief’s crucial visit to USA secures Pakistan’s national security interests.
Myth of Global India
The concept of Global India is a myth waiting to be exposed. The notion of India’s rise as a super power is simply not doable. The factors of geography, history, economy, demography and other Geopolitical aspects, all constrain India from bearing the mantle of a great power.
  • Geography: India is hemmed in.

‘If the north of India faces the majestic Himalayas and mountains, west of India faces the ‘Great Wall of Pakistan’.
 (From the book, ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ by Nadir Mir)
The ocean in the south and East Asia in its east shackle India’s geography. Before stepping out of the region, India has to neutralize Pakistan and China. Since Delhi does not have the capability of conquering either, the only other suave policy option is accommodation of both. This traditionally has been anathema for the Indian elite. Now Hinduvta infused thinking has set India on a collision course in its north and west. This will further embroil Delhi in the region and retard India’s extra regional ventures.
  • History
In the last 1,000 years, India has been invaded and conquered up teen times. Never did an India Army win a victory in any foreign land. All the invaders and conquerors of
India came from Afghanistan, Central Asia, West Asia and Turkic regions, except the British. All these regions combine to make up Pakistan’s identity, since Pakistan is not merely a South Asian State. The soldiers and people of Pakistan will defeat Indian bid for hegemony in the region. This is the past and future history for South Asia.
  • Economy
India’s much acclaimed economic growth has been down sized. Modi’s capitalist formula is in any case to benefit the Indian elite and not its masses. Despite being one of the big economies, India is services based, rather than manufacture based. A part of the IT sector and India’s Diaspora abroad have greatly contributed, while the bulk of Indian economy is not a world leader. India does not match either Germany or Japan in technology and nor China in exports. It cannot match USA in economic terms. Russia and EU have many advantages compared to India. Even Brazil and South Africa are developing better than India as members of BRICS. Dozens of the nations of the world will have a quality of life much better than India, so Global India will remain a myth.
  • Demography
“India’s exploding demography may tear it at the seams. . . . . . . . . .  . . . . . . . . out of this over 800 million people below poverty line including 500 million existing in sheer squalor and abject poverty. . . . . . . .  . . . it is only peace in the neighbourhood which can free India to become prosperous and secure.”
                                                                                         (From the book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ by Nadir Mir)
Pakistan’s War of National Survival
Pakistani Nation is united to defend Pakistan. The war against India is Pakistan’s war of national survival. The brave soldiers of Pakistan are supported by the entire nation. Pakistan’s conventional military strength and asymmetrical prowess can defend Pakistan and even finish the war on a favourable note.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal  
In the final analysis, Pakistan’s heroically guarded nuclear arsenal remains supreme. The world respected SPD, under the competent and bold General Zubair Hayat remain ever ready to deter Indian chauvinism. In case, Delhi strategically invades, then Pakistan’s massive nuclear and multiple assured delivery means will unleash ‘Armageddon in the East’.

The Guns of August to India – Pakistan War

The Guns of August to India – Pakistan War

By Brigadier Nadir Mir (R)

Sialkot Border
Was World War I (1914 – 1918) which started with the ‘Guns of August’ inevitable? Then Second World War (1939 – 1945) may appear as preordained. These and a thousand questions probe the historian’s mind. Yet peace in our times is the need of citizens all over the world. If war in 1914 destroyed an entire generation, a great war in 2014 would be much graver for all humanity.
A Third World War is not needed! Nuclear War between India and Pakistan alone would destroy many regions, kill, maim, stricken and sicken almost 2 billion people (including a billion people who would die from starvation in the famine to follow).  If a reckless, hubris filled India attacks Pakistan, it would be a fatal blunder. Pakistan would be defended by its brave soldiers led by their Army Chief General Raheel Sharif known for his professionalism, patriotism and courage. The people of Pakistan would support their Army to destroy the aggressor at any price!
Numerous other flash points for confrontation exist on the planet. Small scale conflicts are galore, more so in Southern Eurasia. The Middle East is in turmoil and parts of Africa explosive. Still no major state actor seeks war with Israel (which enjoys nuclear monopoly).  Hence, any conflict in the Middle East would remain small, confined and limited.
A US – Iran War (prospects now extremely remote) would ultimately have been a one sided affair. Even if the Iranians had sunk a US carrier and struck American bases in the region besides blocking the Strait of Hormuz, main land America would have remained strategically invulnerable. Iranians, despite their national courage, would obviously have come to grief. Yet even mighty USA shied away from such an expensive war effort. The conflict brewing in Ukraine has led to a mini cold war between USA led west and Russia. Still a major war between NATO and Russia is unlikely (with Moscow increasingly aligned with Beijing).
Today, there is no model of major state actors fighting a war surpassing the ‘Guns of August 1914’ or even the Blitzkrieg of September 1939, except one. An India – Pakistan War can become a Total War in front of which even the First World War pales. Ironically, there are some similarities between the environment of 1914 in Europe and 2014 in and around South Asia. A brief glance at the tragic First World War before returning to the prospects of a even more horrific and catastrophic India – Pakistan War would be in order.
First World War
The real reason for the ‘Guns of August 1914’ was European Geopolitics. The murder of Austrian Archduke Ferdinand by a Serbian assassin was a tiny spark to a giant powder keg on the European Geopolitical Chessboard. 37 days later, Europe was at war. This month plus proved futile for diplomatic endeavours to avert war. The much quoted military – political – diplomatic gap ensured that the guns would speak. This Great War commenced almost a century after the last great conflict ending in Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo June 1815.
Thus, a far of tussle, Austria – Serbia instigated the great powers to the war path. Rising Germany under a militaristic Kaiser Wilhelm, goaded by an aggressive chief of staff Moltke (junior) were confident of the Schlieffen Plan. Borrowing a leaf from Napoleon’s operational strategy of the central position to the European scale, Count Schlieffen had devised a military strategy of fighting France and Russia sequentially. In essence, Germany would mobilize its forces and with the bulk manoeuvre to out flank Paris and force capitulation of the French Army; while holding the slowly mobilized Russians at bay with lighter forces. Having defeated France the might of Germany would be concentrated on the vastness of Russia.
The British Empire initially neutral, subsequently threw in their lot on the side of France. The Schlieffen Plan based German manoeuvre was to roll into France violating Belgium’s neutrality. This, the British were loath to accept. The acquisition of Belgium’s coast and possible defeat of France by Rising Germany would make the British Isles vulnerable and so thought London.
For centuries British Geopolitics under the notion of balance of power, was averse to any rising power dominating Europe. In this case, the rise of German Navy anathema to the Royal British Navy, German quest for colonies of Africa and a dozen other reasons ensured war on the continent. The causes of the First World War by Historian AJP Taylor are an apt study on the subject. Winston Churchill as first lord of admiralty was among the British hawks (later landed the British and Australian forces in disaster at Gallipoli Turkey).  The cousin relationship between the British monarch and German Kaiser could not prevent war, nor limit it.
The Russian Empire under the house of Romanovs was falsely confident of its military prowess.  Having defeated Napoleon in 1812 and Cossacks entering Paris in 1814 had given delusions to the Czar. Russia would lose the initial battles against Germany at Tannenberg and subsequently face revolution at home in 1917, capitalized by Lenin and fore told by the Siberian monk Rasputin.
The Austrian Empire was tottering. The Hapsburgs rightly fearing war would lose their empire on the side of Germany. So would the Ottoman Empire face defeat and disintegration as Germany’s allies. Except Mustafa Kamal Pasha, the hero of Gallipoli, who would rise phoenix like from Anatolian heartland as founder of the modern Turkish State. America entered the war on Anglo French side towards the end and helped shift the logistical and military balance against Germany, forcing it to capitulate.
First World War Conclusion
The Schlieffen Plan failed. Even as German mobilization was near perfect (25,000 trains moving on time), the German juggernaut was halted outside Paris. Muddy trench warfare shackled strategy and tactics alike. Millions died on both sides and not much was achieved. The German Empire was exhausted, the Russian Empire in revolution, the victors Anglo French Empires greatly weakened. The Austrian and Ottoman Empires disappeared!
While the valour of millions dutiful soldiers on all sides is saluted hundred years later, the war was a total disaster.   It weakened Europe’s global primacy. It led to the rise of Hitler’s Germany (Treaty of Versailles among other causes) and caused the Second World War. After which global power shifted from European Capitals and was contested between Washington and Moscow.
Who really won this war? What would have happened had it been fought with nuclear weapons?
It is now time to draw some lessons for an India – Pakistan War.
India – Pakistan War
Some over confident and conceited Indians are comparing themselves with ‘Rising Germany’ of 1914.  Others are talking of two front war with Pakistan and China. An Indian Ali Ahmed writes in ‘South Asia echoes from across a century’ of Schlieffen Plan as India faces a two front war. The Modi regime does not even accept Kashmir as a dispute, leave alone settle it. Already an Indian policy of confrontation with Pakistan is quite visible. Delhi’s wasteful military shopping spree is meant to achieve military supremacy over Pakistan while deterring China. The current Indian worldview seeks military dominance of Greater South Asia and India’s emergence as global economic power.
The debate in Indian strategic circles is who to fight and defeat first, Pakistan or China? In this absurd strategic dilemma, Indian wannabe Clausewitzs, Mahans, Manstiens and Rommels vie in their dim witted illogic. In their level of miscalculation, they beat the Neo cons of America hollow, who thought invading Afghanistan and Iraq would be a picnic. This quixotic worldview of Delhi is fantasy, self pleasing and yet self destructive.
India has obviously been emboldened by a terrorist campaign on Pakistan’s western border (now being eliminated by Pakistan Army). India supports terrorists but failed to embroil the Pakistan Army. The recent political activism in Islamabad provided Delhi minor space to ferment trouble in Kashmir.  India is overestimating its military power and underestimating Pakistan’s military potential!
The fact is the Pakistani nation is united with its armed forces to defend Pakistan. Even while controlling militancy on its western border, Pakistan Armed Forces are ready to defeat anything from adventurism to full scale Indian invasion on the eastern border.
The analogy of First World War is in fact misleading. India is no Rising Germany. Pakistan is neither Serbia nor France. It is in fact a nation awake and proud of its national independence. Pakistan is defended by an Army which is battle hardened, and prepared to fight full spectrum war including asymmetrical, conventional to total nuclear war. PM Modi’s claim about Pakistan of not having the conventional military capability to fight India is hollow in the extreme. Pragmatically speaking Pakistan has evolved the military concept of dove tailing sub conventional, conventional, nonconventional war waging to achieve ends of strategy. Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence includes tactical nuclear usage to strategic nuclear exchange which will leave few survivors in India.
On the contrary, India’s Cold Start – Proactive Strategy is not really doable. The equipment, level of training, command control for an Indian Krieg of ten battle groups with air and missile superiority is not yet available. The notion of Cold Start remaining short of Pakistan’s nuclear threshold is simply illogical. With a part of its military force (Cold Start mode) India cannot defeat Pakistan. In the event, Pakistan may yet finish the war on a favourable note.
In case, India was to go for full scale war mobilization la 2001 Escalation Mode, it would need 2 to 4 weeks giving Pakistan ample time to fully mobilize and blunt the Indian offensive. A strategic stale mate in South Asia would be deemed as Pakistani victory, considering Delhi’s penchant of claiming global India status. India’s much acclaimed economy would obviously also be doomed.
A two front war with India fighting both Pakistan and China is a big joke!!
‘India cannot even defeat Pakistan in a short conventional war. The Pakistan military is motivated and ready for battle to defend Pakistan. India’s Cold Start offensive is likely to prove a total disaster. Pakistan’s Air Force one of the finest in the world, always remains at high alert. Pakistan’s versatile missile arsenals can strike earlier in India than India’s land offensive into Pakistan.  Pakistan’s quick mobilization and defensive response could include tactical nuclear usage, leading to counter value and counter force nuclear exchange.
No matter how the Indian military wages a two front war, it cannot win, except in Bollywood!’
                                                                                                 (Extract from the book, ‘Geopolitk Pakistan’ by Nadir Mir)
The lesson of First World War and today’s India – Pakistan war is simply one. Peace is the only viable option for all. Conflict resolution starting with return of Kashmir to Pakistan is the key. India must also relent on its ambitions in Afghanistan where it can never win.
Strategic balance in the subcontinent is a prerequisite for strategic stability, till resolution of disputes ‘Cold Peace’ should prevail!!

The Limits of Western Geo-Strategy

Posted by Nadir Mir on Jul 8, 2014 in Opinion |

The Limits of Western Geo-Strategy

By Brigadier Nadir Mir (R)

President Obama, a smart American President is realizing the limits of Western Geo-Strategy. In fact, the culmination point of US Geo-Strategy had already been reached. Even as a unipolar world fades a multi polar era is not emerging. Rather a non polar or zero polar world order is quite visible.
‘USA is globally preeminent but not predominant. It may lead the world, but cannot control the world.’
Geopolitik Pakistan
Nadir Mir
President Putin has repositioned Russia to restore global balance. Moscow is not only globally respected but once again a major player in the Middle East. While China’s share of the global GDP increases all the time. Pakistan under its dynamic and bold Army Chief General Raheel Sharif is proactive to eradicate terrorism. By the same token, defending Pakistan in its full spectrum is his article of faith. Pakistan will emerge as a key player for multi regions.
America is lucky to be led by President Obama, who remains cautious of embroiling USA in new misadventures. The top American military man General Dempsey appears suave enough not to send young Americans in harm’s way for little reason. The mirage of the Iraqi deserts and treacherous ravines of Afghanistan would be an eye opener even for novices, military professionals should know better.
Western Geo-Strategy
Alexander the Great may have been the first wave of western Geo-Strategy marching east till the Indus Valley. Yet the Crusades commencing in 1st millennium may have been more effect creating. Islamic counter stroke by Salahuddin Ayubi in the epic victory at Battle of Hattin 1187 and capture of Jerusalem may have set the stage. Centuries later, after the First World War, when British and French generals arrived at Salahuddin’s grave, they reportedly exclaimed – ‘we have returned’!
The US invasion of Iraq, Arab Spring and later US withdrawal has created a new environment. Out of this mayhem and disorder is emerging ISIS and namesakes. It was claimed Al-Qaida was eliminated; rather new forces and more radical ones are emerging, sweeping across the Middle East, and even Africa. Their Battle cry is “The Caliphate”! ISIS is now converting into the Islamic State. The locomotive of Western Geo-Strategy is America. The problem is that America has more propagandists than Geo-strategicians! One reason Geopolitical problems remain unresolved.
The solution for western Geo-Strategy is to respect great powers like Russia, China and support key states like Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. If non state actors are the predicament, then the remedy obviously lies in augmenting critical state actors.
Sykes – Picot
In the aftermath of the First World War which bleed Europe white the Ottoman Empire was carved up by greedy imperialists. A century later the lessons are coming home to roast. Sykes Picot the English – French master minds created the new map of Middle East which lasted nearly a century!
In the last decades two critical events have changed the Middle East Geopolitical landscape. Firstly the western, US led invasion of Iraq, Afghanistan and its aftermath. Secondly the Arab Spring and winds of change. The US exodus in Iraq has brought the old order down. The Pan Islamic Caliphate seeking militants are on the march. Nationalists and key state actors like Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and most critically Pakistan is the other choice.
The American led western strategy had destroyed the old order in Central Middle East creating a power vacuum. A strategy of ‘Controlled Chaos’ is converting into ‘Uncontrolled Chaos’. It is ironic that American Colonel (R) Ralph Peter’s ‘Blood Borders’ and the ISIS agenda has much in common. They may be mutually inspirational even as avowed enemies. Much more inexplicable that Bathists and Islamic militants including Shias and Sunnis confront USA, after over a decade of US occupation.
Now US faces the predicament of reentering the Arena of Iraq. Falluja ironically hailed by US marines had already become an ISIS strong hold.
Limits of American Geo-Strategy
Iraq is lost and may divide into Shia, Sunni and Kurd regions. Afghanistan may follow suit. After spending trillions of dollars, thousands of causalities and protracted conflicts of well over a decade, the situation may be worse than before. What the world needs is the Geopolitics of peace. Global peace demands accepting Russia’s rights, absorbing China’s rise and resolving key disputes of Kashmir and Palestine.
Pakistan – the Future Decisive Weight
The larger Middle East is on the boil. The central portion of Syria, Iraq is already in flames. The fervour of militant sweep may affect Jordan to Saudi Peninsula.  ISIS and affiliates are likely to confront Iran. The two pillars of stability in a future inferno are Pakistan and Turkey.
Pakistan is the decisive weight for many regions. Its status as a bridge state between the larger Middle East and South Asia, Central Asia and South Asia, China and West Asia / Indian Ocean places it on a unique central position. Pakistan’s interposing capability promises its Geo-Strategy clear advantage over other state actors and all non state actors.
Even as the Middle East turns more unstable, America withdraws from Afghanistan. Pakistan has launched a comprehensive military offensive in North Waziristan. The brave and professional Pakistan Army supported by the nation is determined to secure Pakistan.
Afghanistan was the previous war while the one brewing in Iraq – Syria is the future one. Both the Shias and Sunnis in Syria – Iraq blame USA. Washington needs Pakistan not only for Afghanistan’s stability but help bring peace in the greater Middle East. A Shia – Sunni clash is not preordained. Pakistan along with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran can help contain the fires of hell. Pakistan is the only State which has China as a Strategic Ally, USA as an old friend and Russia as a new friend.

Full Spectrum Nuclear Deterrence – Pakistan

Posted by Nadir Mir on Jun 9, 2014 in Indo-Pakistan |

Full Spectrum Nuclear Deterrence – Pakistan

By Brigadier Nadir Mir

Pakistan Nuke Range

Pakistan must forge ahead towards full spectrum nuclear deterrence. The era of minimum credible nuclear deterrence is fast coming to an end. Pakistan’s Geopolitical environment is shifting radically. In the East unbridled ‘Hinduvta’ is the new creed. Towards North West in Afghanistan, the Americans are leaving. This strategic climactic can create vacuum and may beacon hostile forces.

“Nukes central to our defence strategy” had been aptly enunciated by Army Chief General Raheel Sharif. While the proud and professional defenders of Pakistan are prepared to deal with multi faceted threats, the environment is unpredictable. Post 9/11, US occupied Afghanistan is giving way to the post US military presence in the region.

Pakistan faces internal security threats and yet the new regime in India may lead to another confrontation with Pakistan. Even while the government of Pakistan seeks peace with India yet conflict can occur due to numerous factors. In essence, political overtures are welcome but Geopolitics is the key to real peace.


Pakistan – India competition in Afghanistan will become more pronounced in 2014 onwards and may lead to conflict.

‘For New Delhi, realism dictates that a major military effort in Afghanistan is not sustainable …………..  only to fail ………………………….. set in motion events that could potentially lead to – a nuclear confrontation with Pakistan.’    
                                                                                    Michael Scheuer (Ex CIA, now Historian)       
                                       Will India, Pakistan come to blows Over Afghanistan?
After US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Kashmir is likely to ignite again. Pakistan is determined to resolve Kashmir (unfinished agenda of partition). Delhi may become even more hawkish under it’s new regime which any way wants to revoke Jammu and Kashmir’s special status. This may lead to local clashes in Kashmir which can spiral out of control. Kashmir remains the flash point.
The Indian elite has convinced itself that any act of militancy in 1.3 billion people living in India is related to Pakistan. Cold Start or surprise invasion of Pakistan within 72 hours (no matter how disastrous a strategy) is the recipe for a greater war.
Surgical Strikes
Some Indians are fixated with a notion of carrying out surgical strikes against perceived militants (US / Israeli fashion) in Pakistan. Fanatical Indians even talk of carrying out – a ‘Bin Laden’ (nabbing of some militant, supposed to be living in Pakistan).
Obviously such reckless strikes will ignite the flames of an all consuming inferno in South Asia.
Chah bahar and Gwadar
Previous friction between India and Pakistan was generally related to land and air borders. Pakistan’s major base Karachi and Indian Naval base Mumbai were quite distant in peace time. Now as Pakistan’s Gwadar develops and India’s interest in Chah Bahar, naval friction, posturing is likely to enhance. India has a penchant for sailing in other people’s waters. In South China Sea and in Gulf near Pakistan, naval presence of India would lead to turmoil.  
Indian Mindset
With global India ambitions, ‘Two Fronts War Plans’, against Pakistan and China, a jingoistic outcome can be expected. In many Indian think tanks and papers the response for Pakistan is mostly the same – punitive strategy. In essence, Delhi’s mindset is that of a school master (India) punishing an uncompromising and independence minded student (Pakistan). More recently, the hawks close to power in Delhi, would love to see Pakistan destroyed. If a future war takes place, the Indian mindset varying from hegemony to dominance would be the principle culprit.
Nuclear Scenarios
War between India and Pakistan is expected to go nuclear at the outset. A large number of realistic Nuclear War Scenarios can be conjectured. The war environment will dictate whether a graduated nuclear escalation takes place or a one rung nuclear escalation ladder unfolds. Both sides are likely to practice escalation domination (in simple language, issuing credible and bigger threats to each other or a one up in nuclear brinkmanship).
Cold Start leading to Nuclear War
Surprise nuclear strikes are possible but not pragmatically doable. Clashes on LOC of Kashmir can spread but could be contained. Even conflict of interests in Afghanistan may not lead to a general war situation. Pakistan seeks peace and has adopted strategic restrain so far.
The most likely nuclear war scenario is related to Cold Start, proactive strategy or simply a surprise conventional invasion of Pakistan which the Indian military dreams of. This could unfold in many ways. By design or by default the decision makers of Delhi on any pretext, perceived or imaginary could take the fateful decision of going to war. Having absurdly convinced themselves that there is space available for conventional war under the nuclear thresh hold.
The assumption that Pakistan would not respond with full force would be a fatal error committed by the adventurous Indians!
Nuclear War by Miscalculation 
The greatest chance of nuclear war in South Asia region is likely to be based on miscalculation.  The two contenders are unlikely to unleash nuclear first strikes in peace time. Some form of nuclear stability or nuclear deterrence prevails is the orthodox view. Brass tacks 1986, Kargil 1999, Escalation 2001, Mumbai 2008 are cited as war prevention due to the nuclear shadow. Some salient miscalculations are as under:
  • War or no war?The first Indian miscalculation is obviously that it can wage limited war, damage or punish Pakistan and get away with it. This view is likely to enhance in an atmosphere of ‘Global India’ hubris. It is further compounded by Delhi’s aim of bearing a mantle larger than British India. The advocates of the ‘Indian Century’ consider Pakistan as a stumbling block to India’s larger ambitions. It is this grandiose obsession which may steer India towards the war path. India is also irked by rising China with whom it hopes to compete. Before confronting China, it may opt to deal with what it terms as the ‘Arch Rival on the Indus’ called Pakistan (even as it prepares for a two front war).By contrast Pakistan can also miscalculate in the opposite sense. Many Pakistanis confident of its nuclear prowess believe there is no chance of war. In case of conflict, this could prove ominous – ‘a Nuclear Ardennes’. Historically, Pakistan being peace seeking has been miscalculating India.Whatever Pakistanis may have miscalculated in 1965, 1971 or kargil is no longer a luxury available to us. Needless to say Pakistan cannot afford to miscalculate in a war likely to go nuclear.
  • Tactical or Strategic Nuclear WarPakistan’s strides in tactical nuclear weapons, Nasr and beyond have caused consternation in Indian strategic circles. Battle field nuclear weapons in Pakistani hands are considered as an antidote to Indian Cold Start Strategy. The Indians have launched a tirade or propaganda campaign against Pakistan’s tactical nukes. Besides numerous other feeble notions, the Indians lament nuclear war cannot remain tactical and lead to strategic nuclear war. The fact is that Pakistan is working towards full spectrum nuclear deterrence. Logically this includes both tactical and strategic nuclear responses.Escalation Domination“Shayam Saran convener of the Indian National Security Advisory Board – its nuclear retaliation will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage on its adversary. The label on a nuclear weapon for attacking India, strategic or tactical is irrelevant from Indian perspective’. In essence, for a perceived militant strike in India, it would launch surprise war with armoured spear heads supported by Indian Air Force into Pakistan. In case of Pakistani tactical nuclear usage in its defence, Delhi threatens all out strategic nuclear attacks to annihilate Pakistan. Pakistan in turn can reduce all of India to radioactive debris. Mutually Assured Destruction stage had already been reached, but Delhi is in a state of denial!! Pakistan’s nuclear retribution to an Indian nuclear attack will leave few survivors in India.”
    (From the book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ by Nadir Mir)
  • Pakistan’s Nuclear Developmental StrategyNuclear Pakistan’s detractors, critics, propagandists, term it as the fastest growing nuclear programme. Besides a legion of Indian propagandists, some lobbyists in the western world like Bruce Riedel, Fredrick Kagan, are not amiable to Pakistan. Fact of the matter is that nuclear Pakistan is what ensures stability in many regions and keeps Geopolitical mayhem at bay. Delhi may once again destabilize deterrence as it did by introducing nuclear submarines and missile defence in the nuclear equation. ‘Indian Nuclear Doctrine – Stirrings of Change’ by PR Chari has noted that India’s ‘No First Use’ pledge may be revoked. More so, India’s ‘Nuclear Triad’ efforts make a mockery of limited credible nuclear deterrence.Pakistan’s SPD now brilliantly and boldly led by DG Lt General Zubair Hayat is building a nuclear arsenal among the best in the world. Pakistan’s nuclear developmental strategy needs to cover all range of nuclear threats, ensuring its own security and with guaranty of launching ‘Massive Assured Retribution’. Under a suave and professional joint chief General Rashid Mahmood, Nuclear Pakistan will remain responsible, secure and not to be trifled with.Pakistan should not to be the first to start a war but cannot be the second to launch Nuclear War!

International Maritime Symposium at Navy War College

Talk with Think tanks
 Talk on 'Geopolitik Pakistan' at Navy War College

logo Friday, 24 January, 2014
A topsy-turvy world 
Nadir Mir
The planet is moving towards a non-polar world, rather than a multi-polar one. After World War Two (1945), the world was split into two camps or ‘bipolar era’ (the Cardinals of the Kremlin and Grand Masters of the White House). The demise of Soviet Union in 1991 left USA as the undisputed global master. America’s ‘overstretch’ abroad, contested by numerous quarters and capitalism going wild, exhausted it within two decades.
China emerged as an economic peer, Putin’s Russia as a strategic rival and elusive Islamic militants embroiled Americans in Islamic lands, even as the Arab Spring created a new equation. Meanwhile, EU faced economic crisis, while global wealth partly shifted into the ‘Petro Gulf’, Asian Tigers and Central Asian cities. The new entrants into the global economic arena included Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and even Mexico.
America had waged protracted, unwinnable wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. With a war weary public at home, the culmination point of US unilateralism had been reached. Even Robert Gates, the previous Secretary Defence, had warned that ‘USA should no longer get involved in land wars in Asia’.
In 2013, when USA was prevented from attacking Syria, it sought diplomacy with Iran (to the annoyance of Israelis and Saudis), and found Karzai reluctant to sign BSA. Kabul did sign agreements with India and Iran and would probably later with USA. But the world had changed for Washington. Even as the US made Asia Pacific its pivot with Air Sea Battle plans against China (akin to Air Land Battle against Soviet Union), its Middle East influence was slipping. Discovery of shale gas at home, besides difficulties abroad also reduced US’ appetite and penchant for Middle East energy reserves. The cumulative effect of all this and much more is that America remains pre-eminent but not predominant. In essence, US may lead but not control the world.
So, now that brings us to the non-polar world. ‘There is no need for conflict between America and China now that global dominance is no longer achievable’. Zbigniew Brzezinski Giants, but Not Hegemons (NY Times Feb 13, 2013)
The emerging non-polar world or zero-polar world has already cast a shadow on Middle East, South Asia and Central Asia confluence. Regional Geopolitics may be taking a new turn.
And now, we move onto regional geopolitics. Now the clock is ticking in Afghanistan. By next year, most US combat forces are expected to leave for home. Afghan war is already a forgotten story in US. Except for small vested lobbies, mainstream America wants an end to this war. Some Afghans living on US dole want US troops to ferry them along to the home of the brave. Some quarters in Pakistan are in a state of denial as to how and why should US leave Afghanistan (perhaps they never heard of US withdrawal from Vietnam). Delhi is petrified by the very idea of US leaving Afghanistan. US – Iran détente is possible, yet the geopolitics of the regions is extremely complicated. Normal relations between the two foes will take some time and are also hostage to future American Administration and their worldview.
The emerging non-polar world and regional geopolitics are positive trends for Pakistan. A unified Pakistan putting its house in order is a prerequisite. By combining its virtues, both as a ‘Bridge’ state and ‘Interposing’ state of multi-regions, Pakistan would guard its national interests. With peace at home and pursuing a nationalistic policy, Pakistan can achieve its rightful place on the map.

Brigadier Nadir Mir (r) is a geopolitician and defence analyst.

The Army Chief and Future Geopolitics

By Nadir Mir

The Army Chief, General Raheel Sharif, has assumed command at a critical juncture in Pakistan’s history. Fortunately, he is uniquely balanced in being bold and elegant, soldier and gentleman, amiable and resolved. A patriotic lineage, and martyrs from his family history evoke both inspiration and aspirations from soldiers and citizens alike. His military grooming and nationalistic vision both are aptly suited to deal with internal security dynamics of Pakistan and regional Geopolitics.   

Globally Pivotal and Nuclear Armed Pakistan. The reason COAS of Pakistan Army is rated among the powerful, influential men of the world by Forbes and other global estimates, is because General Raheel Sharif heads a large, powerful and professional Army. Moreover, Pakistan being globally pivotal is also the reason. Its national security is influenced by South Asia, Central Asia, West Asia, China and Indian Ocean. In turn Pakistan influences the Geopolitics of many regions, because it is not only a South Asian entity but truly multi regional. This concept of Pakistan as a ‘Bridge State’ and also ‘Interposing State’ is presented in my recent book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’. Pakistan’s military power influences not only Afghanistan and India but its nuclear power is globally reckoned.  Pakistan’s expanding nuclear arsenal enhances its deterrence capability, and also elevates the strategic stature of Pakistan’s COAS.      

National Security Challenges.

  • East. India remains Pakistan’s main and perpetual existential threat. As the world’s largest arms importer, build up of nuclear war fighting triad, augmented by outer space forays, trigger happy Cold Start preparations and seeks to enforce a two front scenario on Pakistan. Delhi not only tyrannizes Kashmir, aspires to destabilize Pakistan through Afghan bases but also works on a sinister plan to enhance friction between Iran and Pakistan. In essence, while threatening from the East, undermine from within and strategic encirclement from West of Pakistan is India’s design. Even more ominous and deceptive are peace, cultural and friendship claims by the disciples of so called ‘Global India’. 
  • North West. US – NATO deinduction from Afghanistan in 2014 is a Geopolitical climactic. The future security environment in Afghanistan will be radically different from today. The Kabul regime, former Northern Alliance supported by India may battle the emboldened and augmented Taliban. Even if the Americans leave a rear guard manning nine bases, their stay will become inhospitable after some time. India will try to arm terrorists for strikes on Pakistan even as it fails to invoke Pashtun and Baloch nationalism to weaken Pakistan. A negotiated settlement involving Afghan Taliban, Pakistan, US and Kabul (minus India) could prevent an Afghan Civil War. Pakistan holds most cards and is poised as a winner; still it cannot permit India to consolidate its hold on Afghanistan, even as Delhi builds an inhuman wall to convert Kashmir into a ‘Giant Prison’. 
  • South West. US – Iran interim nuclear deal may be a harbinger of things to come. By end 2014, US draw down of forces in Afghanistan may also be linked to a new understanding with Iran. Unless the nuclear deal fizzles out, leading to more sanctions by USA on Iran or Israel strikes Iran which escalates into a greater regional war. In any event, India is investing in Chah Bahar Port aiming to bypass Gwadar, encirclement of Pakistan and access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Delhi may enjoy the benevolence of Washington in this unholy nexus. Still Iran is expected to remain friendly to Pakistan and not fall into this trap, rather build energy links with Pakistan.
  • Internal. Pakistan faces multi pronged terrorist campaign. This has been a combined product of internal adverse dynamics and hostile Geopolitics. The Pakistani Taliban in KPK and Baluch militants in Baluchistan, have created mayhem. Besides tragic loss of lives and limbs, the economy has been ruined. Pakistan needs internal peace at the earliest. The Pakistani Taliban and Baluch militants need to be pacified, employing all elements of national power. Fortunately, the federal government is already seeking peace with both forms of militancy.
  • Indian Propaganda. General Bikram Singh Indian COAS expects cooperation from Pakistan on LOC (to India’s advantage). Indian Army Lt General Syed Ali Husnian (R) too wants General Raheel Sharif to keep LOC in Kashmir quiet. (While India builds the great wall of oppression).In essence Indian propagandists as per their desires want Pakistan Army further embroiled in the Western Border even after Americans leave Afghanistan. Delhi wants Pakistan Army imbalanced on its Eastern Border, further duped by cultural and trade gimmicks. Unfortunately for the Indians, Pakistan Army fully comprehends Indian stratagems and COAS General Raheel Sharif is very competent to give a befitting reply.
  • National Security and Democracy. Even while ensuring national security, democracy will be supported by the Army. Indeed the time has come to overcome this civil – military divide. The Army Chief with his confident personality is well suited to bring harmony in soldiers and citizens for the security and prosperity of Pakistan.
  • Future Endeavours. A complete response to national security challenges merits, a research paper. The contours of some salient’s can at best be listed here:
  • National Unity The Army and nation are united and this needs to be further cemented in all ways. Peace within Pakistan will free the Army for its main job, defending Pakistan from India and to maintain balance of power in the region.
  • Full Spectrum Nuclear Deterrence Full spectrum Nuclear Deterrence must be built up. It is nuclear weapons power which puts Pakistan on the global map, besides ensuring regional nuclear deterrence. Pakistan must resist FMCT and keep building its nuclear arsenal.
  • Modern War Machine Even though strategy drives technology but technology also drives strategy. The two are interdependent. Despite paucity of resources a modern war machine is indispensable for Pakistan. China and Turkey are strategic partners and great conduits for military technology.
  • Single Front The Pakistan Army must concentrate on a single front – Eastern Frontier. Peace within Pakistan, facilitating Exit Strategy for USA from Afghanistan, is paramount. Hostile ‘Game Plan’ of embroiling Pakistan Army on the Western Frontier must be defeated. Pakistan Army should be gracefully shifted from Western to Eastern border in 2014 onwards. 
  • Kashmir LOC Pakistan Army must remain pro active in Kashmir LOC and vigilant on its Eastern Border. Indian aggression in Kashmir must be responded, tit for tat. India’s wall making in Kashmir should be resisted in the disputed land. 
  • Conclusion The Army Chief General Raheel Sharif is in command when new opportunities will present themselves. With his astute strategic sense, he knows that time is on the side of Pakistan. The Americans are greatly thinning out of Afghanistan, and Pakistan should reap the fruit of sacrifices of a decade long war. Indian Geo-strategic game plan is failing in Afghanistan, even as occupied Kashmir becomes more insecure. Under dynamic leadership, Pakistan will not only defend itself but attain its rightful place in the regions around. Pakistan will triumph in future!!

Pakistan’s Weltanschauung (World View) By Nadir Mir
Posted by Editor on Nov 11, 2013 in Book Reviews

Geopolitik Pakistan


Pakistan’s Weltanschauung (World View) By Nadir Mir

By Editor

The book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ is a major contribution on the Pakistani intellectual scene. This seminal endeavour on Geopolitiks from Pakistani perceptive is even more astounding. The book aims to introduce a critical subject with new thinking for the benefit of Pakistani nation and the world at large.  Pakistan’s Weltanschauung or world view is indeed a pioneering Geopolitikal work of the author Brigadier Nadir Mir (R). His first book was ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ which was on Geo economics and greatly contributed to rekindle the Gwadar Project.

Pakistan’s Weltanschauung or world view is the abiding theme rather than foreign imported concepts and ideas. Geopolitik, in this book is a combination of National Security Policy and Foreign Policy. It commences with an appraisal of Global Geopolitikal environment which is heading towards a Non Polar World rather than an imminent Multi Polar World. In essence, even as the western world’s dominance recedes no new hegemon would be globally dominant. The critical importance of Geopolitiks for Pakistan and the subject’s evolution are discussed thread bare initially.

The Geopolitiks relating to Afghanistan, Pakistan – India’s Geopolitikal rivalry and likely India – China Cold War are dealt at length and convincingly. Future Geopolitik 2013 – 2020 is an apt description of critical players in the global world. This is a fascinating Geopolitikal world tour.

Aspects of Geo-Oceanic Politik and Geo-Demographic Politik, relationship of Politiks and Geopolitiks, Great Games and BRICS future are extremely well presented.

The book contains 13 chapters, 283 pages and it is summed up in its Crux Chapter, to craft Geo-strategy and Geo-economics for Pakistan. The maps, sketches and illustrations make the book graphically comprehensive and illuminate the bigger world picture.  Despite the Pakistani origin of this work, over all the global vision is perfectly apparent. ‘Geopolitks of Peace’ is the solution to the world’s problem. US – China amity is in global interest and Pakistan in fact proved a Geopolitikal bridge for initial US – China contacts. Russia has a great role to play for global peace and balance. Even as new powers Turkey, Brazil, South Africa are rising and contributing to the world’s prosperity. The same way, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and others have historical, cultural and multi links with Pakistan. This work portrays Pakistan’s potential both as a bridge state and an interposing state. ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ is an effort to highlight Pakistan as a unified, powerful and prosperous rising power, its current troubles notwithstanding. Pakistan needs change and the change should be democratic, reform revolution based.

The book is very well researched. A rare combination of history, geography, economics, strategy, ideology, emotions and a lot more to make it real Geopolitiks. It covers the historic past, deals with present day issues and projects the future pragmatically. This propagates Pakistan’s new National Security Narrative and Foreign Policy which projects Pakistan’s National Cause. While suggesting peace with India, Indian hegemony is to be resisted and Kashmir remains central to Pakistan’s Cause.

All told, the book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ is a surprise gift from this beleaguered nation. Any reader would be influenced by the historic truths, geographical realities, pragmatic deductions and logical yet suggestive narration. Certainly, a book of sound ideas and great authority for every chapter being virtually conclusive.

The author, as a pioneering Geopolitician has contributed immensely to the National Cause of Pakistan and for global peace. He is initiating Pakistan National Reform.

The author Brigadier Nadir Mir has written articles on Geopolitics, they have been published in Pravda ru (Moscow), China Daily (Beijing), EU Times, The Nation Pakistan and many think tanks.

Brief of Book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’
§  This book has been authored by Brigadier Nadir Mir (R). His first book was ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ which has greatly contributed to rekindle the Gwadar Project.
§  The author Brigadier Nadir Mir has written articles on Geopolitics, which have been published in Pravda ru (Moscow), China Daily (Beijing), EU Times, The Nation Pakistan and many think tanks.
§  This book introduces the subject of Geopolitks from Pakistani point of view. Pakistan’s Weltanschauung or world view is the abiding theme rather than foreign imported concepts and ideas.
§  Geopolitik, in this book is a combination of National Security Policy and Foreign Policy.
§  It commences with an appraisal of Global Geopolitikal environment which is heading towards a Non Polar World rather than an imminent Multi Polar World. The critical importance of Geopolitiks for Pakistan and the subject’s evolution are discussed thread bare initially.
§  The Geopolitiks relating to Afghanistan, Pakistan – India’s Geopolitikal rivalry and likely India – China Cold War are dealt at length and convincingly.
§  Future Geopolitik 2013 – 2020 is an apt description of critical players in the global world. This is a facinating Geopolitikal world tour.
§  Aspects of Geo-Oceanic Politik and Geo-Demographic Politik, relationship of Politiks and Geopolitiks, Great Games and BRICS future are extremely well presented.
§  ‘Geopolitks of Peace’ is the solution to the world’s problem. US – China amity is in global interest.
§  And lastly, the book is summed up in its Crux Chapter, to craft Geo-strategy and Geo-economics for Pakistan.
§  The book is very well researched, historical, geographical but also futuristic. Propagates Pakistan’s new National Security Narrative and Foreign Policy which projects Pakistan’s National Cause. While suggesting peace with India, Indian hegemony is to be resisted and Kashmir remains central to Pakistan’s Cause.
§  The author, Nadir Mir, as a pioneering Geopolitician has contributed immensely to the National Cause of Pakistan.

Book Launching of ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’

The Nation Newspaper Pakistan
Balochistan and the Pakistan Army  by Nadir Mir
The enemy in Balochistan is neither the Baloch, nor the Pakistani army, but international hostile forces and their allies. The problem in the province is a deep sense of deprivation, alienation, grievance; the cycle of violence, underdevelopment of a sparse demography spread over vast spaces and, of course, geopolitics. Many Balochis claim to be fighting for their rights; however, a minority is either backed by foreign powers or seeks their intervention.

Against this backdrop, the six points enunciated by Sardar Akhtar Mengal should not be compared with Sheikh Mujibur Rehman’s infamous six points. The environment in Balochistan is pragmatically different from the tragedy of East Pakistan. Pakistan has come to stay, much to the chagrin of its enemies. In fact, it will rise as a great nation. Those predicting its balkanisation must be rebutted vigorously.

By the same token, the angry and aggrieved Baloch should be welcomed back into national mainstream. The COAS has aptly and timely supported the political process (within the constitution) for achieving peace in Balochistan. The army and ISI while bravely defending Pakistan are keen to stabilise Balochistan. The army has launched and supported numerous economic development and educational programmes for it, which are creating a positive environment. Despite this, there is a need to involve other political forces to resolve the Baloch issue.

Sardar Akhtar Mengal, Nawab Talal Bugti and other Baloch leaders have toured the country to muster support for their cause. Talal has repeatedly stressed on the loyalty of Baloch with Pakistan. The major political parties, PML-N, PTI, JI and others, have wisely embraced the Baloch Brothers. These are happy tidings that can help to create an environment leading to a remedy for the malaise in beautiful Balochistan. Also, the Supreme Court has, to an extent, accepted the Baloch petitions as an aggrieved party. Hence, Baloch grievances should be heard and resolved in Pakistan, rather than in foreign courts and hostile lands.

Indeed, it is time to end the blame game and maintain permanent peace and stability in Balochistan. Nawab Talal Bugti, Sardar Ataullah Mengal, Sardar Akhtar Mengal and other veteran Baloch leaders must be supported in a national reconciliation effort.

The geopolitics of Balochistan

Sinister forces appear to be at work to sever the Pakistani and Iranian Balochistan (called Seistan). It seems that this balkanisation agenda is part of a larger geopolitical design. An appropriate West Asian strategy is being chiselled by hegemonic powers. Reportedly, Nooruddin Mengal from Pakistan and Naseer Balodi from Iran in a three-day session recently briefed the EU Parliament. Both launched a tirade against Pakistan and Iran, besides pleading for foreign intervention (à la Libya, Nato-style intervention?). Before that the US Congress had introduced a bill to sever Balochistan from Pakistan. Coming on its heels, a UN mission on Balochistan had even suggested disciplinary action against military officers for alleged excesses. These may be the contours of a foreign intervention case.

A part of the so-called liberal media (foreign funded?) in Pakistan and liberal puppets living on foreign dole are already blaming the Pakistani state. These ‘Trojan horse’ tactics in the information age smack of shaping the battlefield. Their aim is to demonise the army, the ISI, divide the people of Pakistan, create political confusion, and galvanise terrorists so that mayhem abounds, leading to the paralysis of the state. After defaming and psychologically isolating the army and ISI, the stage would be set for a unilateral declaration of independence by a few foreign sponsored Baloch. The foreign forces could then be employed in intervention of Balochistan.

The Pak Army, therefore, supported by all patriotic citizens, must become proactive for the resolution of problems faced by Balochistan.

The solution of Balochistan

A holistic solution for Balochistan must include the following:

National Unity: The need of the hour is national unity. The Baloch leaders, mainstream political parties, judiciary, armed forces, civilian government, media and civil society have to combine their efforts for a peaceful and prosperous Balochistan. Pakistan and Balochistan belong to all Pakistanis.

Reconciliation: The army must take an initiative, along with the government, to accommodate the angry and affected Baloch. The PML-N, under the leadership of Mian Nawaz Sharif, is most well placed to placate the Baloch leaders. This scribe had suggested this to Nawaz Sharif in the Gwadar Conference 2012.

Baloch Aspirations: The Baloch sense of injustice needs to be removed. All Baloch leaders and others in Pakistan seek justice for Nawab Akbar Bugti’s killing. The perception of injustice must be eradicated. The Baloch youth needs a special national package of free education and employment.

Economic Cycle: Balochistan has numerous treasures, which should benefit first the people of the province and then the rest of Pakistan. The greatest potential is in Gwadar concept amply highlighted in my book titled “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”. This can bring prosperity and also change the destiny of the Baloch and other Pakistanis.

Security: The first act is to freeze the cycle of violence. An understanding based on reconciliation is the basis of security. While the army remains in its garrisons, the Frontier Corps should be more biased towards the western borders. A new internal security force for Balochistan may be considered with the bulk from Baloch areas.

Information Warfare: The media can help positively resolve Balochistan problem by encouraging reconciliation with the Baloch and discouraging foreign interference. Also, the army can further augment its information warfare capabilities. The ISPR has recently become more effective in projecting the army’s viewpoint. It should concentrate more on Balochistan solution with army’s positive contribution. The ISI while brilliantly guarding Pakistan needs to expose the foreign agendas and hostile agencies fishing in Balochistan’s troubled waters. A serious effort to retrieve the missing persons must be well projected.

Blocking Foreign Interference: Pakistan’s Foreign Office and the army under the government must present a unified case for blocking foreign interference in Balochistan. All forms of foreign interference, including propaganda, funding, training, and arming of insurgents or succour for their leaders abroad, must be dealt with firmly.

Even while blocking foreign interference through all elements of national power, the key to peace in Balochistan lies in national unity and reconciliation. Thus, all Baloch leaders have to be brought on board to maintain peace, prosperity and stability in the province. It should be remembered that Balochistan is as much part of Pakistan as Punjab or any other province. The military backed by people will defend Balochistan like the rest of Pakistan.

The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a book tittled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard. Email:


The Nation Newspaper Pakistan

The enemy and Pakistan Army by Nadir Mir

The obvious answer is India! The reason this question needs to be answered is to clarify the hazy image of national security. Indeed, a security policy built on mixed views is bound to fail. And “if the policy is faulty, even a brilliant strategy will flounder.” Existential threat here means a threat posed to the unity, demography and integrity of Pakistan. The very basis of the state or its physical existence stands challenged.
No army can successfully fight on many fronts. Napoleon’s army and Hitler’s Wehrmacht both fell victims to imperial overstretch. Pakistan’s army is already facing numerous threats: India’s Cold Start strategy, USA’s de-nuking agenda, foreign sponsored separatists in Balochistan, Indian rekindled Sindhudesh movement, Karachi based ethnic/mafia groups, militants in Pakhtunkhwa and spill over of war in Afghanistan.
The army’s primary task is to guard the borders against foreign threats. This essentially means deterring an Indian attack or a de-nuking attempt by any foreign power. The rest of the threats mentioned above need to be dealt with politically and with the support of the security forces. An internal security or specialised anti-terror force needs to be established. Therefore, the army should not be employed to solve political or economic issues; or tasks that are meant for specialised forces.
From 1947 till 2001, the existential threat from India was clear. The muddying of waters began after USA’s invasion of Afghanistan. Although the 11-year long war was waged in that country, Pakistan had to bear the brunt. It converted Pakistan into a battlefield. ‘AfPak’ was meant to create the perception of a war zone on both sides of the western border. Buzz words like GWOT, non-state actors, al-Qaeda, Haqqanis, Blackwater and terrorists served as a ‘Strategy of Deflection’. First, the US aim was to use Pakistan’s assets to help defeat the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Second, shift Islamabad’s strategic orientation away from New Delhi so that India could be pampered to compete with China and also entrench itself in Afghanistan (both were part of the neocon geopolitical wish list).
The Indians played along. After the 2001-02 military standoff, India pacified Pakistan’s eastern border, but inflamed its western border. In the bargain, it established a network of consulates in Afghanistan to destabilise Pakistan. The corrupt and nonchalant Pakistanis took peace with India seriously; they saw their salvation in friendship with it.
A decade long bombing terrorist campaign further confused the issue. The Taliban, al-Qaeda, Blackwater, Indian agents were all blamed. The lethality of terrorist strikes mostly indicated a high degree of sophistication with some being run-of-the-mill crude attacks. There was method in the madness. Apparently, multiple forces were involved conveniently labelled as Taliban.
Apparently, the Taliban have two basic motivations. First to eject the occupying forces from Afghanistan; and second to impose their version of Islam. Since Pakistan was perceived to be a US ally, hatred towards it has grown into a ferocious militant bombing campaign. Simultaneously, separation seeking Baloch militants are being supported and financed by foreign intelligence agencies, while the Sindhudesh militant leader, reportedly, seeks succour in Kabul.
The US, while partially withdrawing from Afghanistan, wants to embroil our army further into the hornet’s nest. Washington’s mantra that Pakistani army is fighting its lost war is endless. The Indians, too, are keen to get it bogged down on the western border through operations in North Waziristan. So the Malala incident is being exploited and misdirected. An orchestrated Indo-US media campaign, supported by liberals in Pakistan, aims to lure the Pakistani army. Their baited gambit seeks to launch it against its own people. This could create a massive backlash and terrorist campaign, further destabilising the state.
With our army engaged in an endless war in Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and Sindh, the stage will be set for coup de grâce. This could set in motion Pakistan’s denuclearisation and balkanisation; plans that were conceived in hostile foreign lands. Perhaps, a perfect time to initiate the Cold Start strategy or denuclearisation campaign. Even a limited version of this scenario aims to pit our army against the Taliban and those fighting the foreign troops in Afghanistan. With the Americans leaving and the Indians vulnerable in Afghanistan, they seek to diminish Pakistani influence in Afghanistan. Our enemies want war in Pakistan and clamour for peace in the region. But Pakistan needs peace at home and peace abroad.
The American geopolitical wish list was endless and frequently not doable, which resulted in an 11-year long war in Afghanistan. In addition to an exit strategy from Afghanistan complicated by USA’s desire to leave India - not Pakistan - as the winner. America is now perceived in some circles as the most dangerous threat to Pakistan. Yet logically speaking, hostility is an insane option for both USA and Pakistan. Islamabad and Washington can be friends again after the US leaves Afghanistan. Pakistan’s alliance with China, new friendship with Russia and old ties with the Taliban can help bring balance and peace in Afghanistan.
Nevertheless, the threat to Pakistan from India commenced long before 1947. The Indians wanted to replace the British Raj and were loath to see the subcontinent divided. Unable to prevent the partition, they conspired to ensure that a moth-eaten Pakistan comes into being. Since 1947, their strategy has been to harm the country in every conceivable manner. India’s hegemonic agenda and its support for terrorists and separatists in Pakistan have spoiled their relations. Hence, the present existential threat to Pakistan is mainly from India.
The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard. Email: Blog:wwwpakistangeopolitics.
The Nation Newspaper Pakistan
Kashmir is Pakistan! by Nadir Mir
  Kashmir dispute is a bone of contention between Pakistan and India. If the Indian held Kashmir (IHK) was a part of India, then what is the issue? Nevertheless, the dispute is that Kashmir, which should have been part of Pakistan, is illegally occupied by India.
A recent statement issued by Pakistan’s Interior Ministry, reportedly, equates Kashmir and other troubled regions in India with Balochistan; it is, indeed, despicable. Whether it was a misstatement or misunderstanding is unknown. However, it is culpable; the statement needs to be clarified. The Kashmiri freedom fighters cannot be equated with militants of different hues in Indo-Pakistan or elsewhere.
Firstly, the IHK (about two thirds as one-third was liberated in the 1948 Kashmir war) is the leftover legacy of 1947. The ‘unfinished’ business of partition - the main dispute between Pakistan and India is Kashmir and its river waters.
People: The Kashmiri people are akin to Pakistanis. Their right to join Pakistan was to be decided through the democratic method of a free and impartial UN sponsored plebiscite, which is tragically denied till date.
Geography: From a geographical viewpoint, a look at the map confirms Kashmir belongs to Pakistan. In the imperfect partition of 1947, the regions of Pathankot-Gurdaspur were mischievously taken by India. Otherwise, India would have had no access or land routes to Kashmir. It would have simply been part of Pakistan.
River Waters: Pakistan’s river waters emanate from Kashmir. Without water, Pakistan’s agriculture, and perhaps demography, is simply not sustainable. India on account of its size and diversity has other water sources, but Pakistan has none! The next war may be a water war. A peaceful solution to a nuclear conflagration is in everybody’s interest.
Secondly, Kashmiris have been struggling against the Indian tyranny since 1947. Historically, their freedom movement has much earlier roots. The Kashmiri freedom fighters are waging a just struggle for national liberation. India’s plans to equate Kashmir with the militants was facilitated by the 9/11 terrorism syndrome. The freedom fighters include not only men, but also women and children. India has been inflicting all sorts of atrocities on the hapless Kashmiris.
The Indian forces, reportedly, committed genocide by killing thousands of Kashmiris. An estimated over 25,000 Kashmiri women have been raped or injured by them. Widows in Kashmir are in thousands, while children have suffered the most. By repeating the mantra of ‘cross-border terrorism’, India has tried to blame Pakistan for its crimes in Kashmir. Mass graves of over 2,000 people have been discovered in Kashmir. Yet, the flame of freedom cannot be extinguished, since the Kashmiris don’t want to be a part of India.
The question, however, is: how can the Indian government commit such excesses and claim Kashmir to be its toot ang? Even worse, how can Pakistan forsake the support to Kashmiris for the sake of keeping New Delhi in good humour?
Thirdly, Pakistan’s Kashmir policy has not changed. Nor can it be changed for anyone, including some ill-informed government officials. The reason is simply that Kashmir is not a part of India. In case, anyone has doubts, a referendum can be held in Pakistan on Kashmir being given to India. In a democratic Pakistan, the people decide on key national issues - Kashmir being primary. The people and soldiers of Pakistan are nationalistic and believe that Kashmir has to return to Pakistan. And no sane political leader in Pakistan will relent on the Kashmir cause, as complete national consensus prevails.
Finally, all kinds of stratagems have been tried, but failed to break the will of Kashmiri people. India has fought numerous wars, near wars and even risked nuclear exchange with Pakistan over Kashmir. The world is partly aware of the Kashmiris’ plight and needs to be further galvanised. India supported militants in Balochistan partly as a ‘Strategy of Deflection’ to embroil Pakistan on its Western borders. Else to equate trouble in Balochistan with Kashmir. Hoping to achieve leverage or quid pro quo, New Delhi strives to equate Pakistan’s internal matters with India-Pakistan interstate disputes.
The tragedy of Kashmir cannot be neglected for long, nor is there any viable solution other than the withdrawal of all Indian security forces from Kashmir. The Kashmiris want freedom from India and will settle for nothing less. Pakistan and the world at large must support their right of self-determination. The US, which stands for human rights, should support the Kashmiri people’s struggle for freedom.
Pakistan and India need to resolve the Kashmir dispute on priority basis, rather than relegate it for a later, albeit explosive, timeframe. It is just a matter of time before the Kashmiri people will be masters of their own destiny.
The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard. Email: Blog:
 The Nation Newspaper Pakistan
National interest and Pakistan Army by Nadir Mir
Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s recent statement was apt, timely and thought-provoking. It is a positive contribution that evoked a lively media debate. Vested interests tried to portray it as the “clash of institutions”. However, difference of opinion is not at all a sign of “clash” between state organs, especially in a mature and democratic society.
Pakistan today is neither run by a dictator, nor solely governed by foreign diktat. Indeed, national interest is supreme; and wisely the army is not claiming monopoly of it, neither can any other individual or group!
At the moment, Pakistan’s environment is internally diverse and externally demanding. National political power in the state is shared between multiple power centres and is passing through a “defining phase”. The military, judiciary, national and provincial governments, political parties, media, civil society and even reformers are all stakeholders. However, the COAS address was appreciated in numerous quarters; both the PPP and the PML-N responded positively.
The army has and should further distance itself from previous military dispensations. It belongs to the nation and is adored by the people of Pakistan. Similarly, the ISI, while bravely defending the nation, has further improved its image. In the forthcoming elections, it is not supporting any political party, as was the perception some time ago.
The previous mistakes committed by all in the country, including the army, can be accounted individually, since no one is above the law. Undoubtedly, the Supreme Court is revered by all Pakistanis. By the same token, ‘army bashing’, as appears in a section of the sensationalised media, is unwarranted. In fact, when seen in the light of hostile geopolitics, it betrays the sinister aim of an alien game plan.
Today, some of the major geopolitical and national issues concerning Pakistan are:
Afghanistan in post-2014 period: President Barack Obama’s re-election means that the 2014 exit strategy for USA is reconfirmed. Pakistan does not need to fight a war, which the US is itself aborting. The Americans are leaving (even if a rear guard is left behind), while the Talibans are staying in Afghanistan. Pakistan needs peace in Afghanistan and peace on the Pak-Afghan border. Pakistani army needs to be freed from war on its western border. This already enjoys the broad consensus of Pakistanis and the army is contributing heroically to that end.
Balochistan and foreign intervention: Balochistan is in turmoil due to past mistakes and hostile geostrategy. The Indians are keen to block Gwadar and Americans agree; in addition, they want to isolate Iran. A so-called West Asian strategy is being chiselled to create independent Balochistan.
Reportedly, Dr Waheed Baloch, an immigrant, requested the US administration to intervene in Balochistan through the CIA (a la Libya and Syrian model). This was an attempt at balkanising both Pakistan and Iran by alien forces. This was initially a neocon-sponsored balkanisation project. It is hoped that a re-elected President Obama will maintain friendship with Pakistan, rather than allow wildly dangerous misadventures in his second term. China and Russia support Pakistan and Iran; nevertheless, they are also striving to reach the Indian Ocean from Balochistan.
The Baloch have to be brought on board so that Pakistan is united for a national purpose. All Pakistani citizens must support a new amiable army as well as political initiative for peace in Balochistan.
Peace with India and Kashmir: Peace with India is logical, since both countries have nuclear weapons. The nuclear powers cannot afford direct confrontation, simply because it is totally destructive and unaffordable. Pakistan’s nuclear strides cannot be taken lightly, nor can peace be one-sided. Even as Pakistan seeks peace with India and trade flows multiply, India should reciprocate. Instead of planning ‘Cold Start’, Kashmir needs to be resolved.
Economic cycle: Pakistan needs to revive an economic national cycle. This warrants social, political and economic reforms that will boost its growth. In addition to augmenting its traditional economic base, Pakistan needs to embrace geo-economics. Its pivotal geography and diligent demography, can convert the Gwadar dream into a reality. Peace and prosperity go together!
Today, the army is ready to defend Pakistan and its national interests. The people, through both rustic and intellectual wisdom, understand the national interests. Needless to say, the army supported by the nation will defend the country against all odds.
The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard. Email: Blog:
The Nation Newspaper Pakistan
Pakistan-Russia geopolitics by Nadir Mir
Pakistan-Russian amity is natural. It was forsaken at the altar of the Cold War. Moreover, America’s quest for Soviet Union’s containment and Pakistan’s need of support against bellicose India resulted in the Pak-US alliance.
Today, the world has changed geopolitically in favour of Pakistan. The time has come for Pakistan-Russian friendship to be solidified. Pakistan’s Chief of Amy Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s visit to Russia was timely and historic. Even earlier, Pakistani Air Chief Marshal had visited Russia.
The geopolitics of Pakistan has often been misunderstood; the time to remedy that has also arrived. In my book, entitled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard, I have already projected the nation’s identity.
Pakistan is a multiregional state and not only South Asian. South Asia is Pakistan’s eastern linkage that is Punjab and Sindh provinces. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is the link to Afghanistan and Central Asia, while Kashmir to the northern areas to China and Central Asia. Balochistan is linked to Iran, Turkey, Gulf - Saudi Peninsula and Western Asia.
Its location is globally pivotal. It is located at the crossroads of the historical empires. It is geo-economically a bridge state and geo-strategically the interposing state between multi-regions. A friendly Pakistan is a blessing and a hostile Pakistan is a disaster for any world power with interests in these regions.
To ignore its geostrategic location, its youth bulge demography soaring towards 200 millions and its formidable military-nuclear forces is an act of imprudence. The Americans were the first, Chinese the second and now Russians also appreciate Pakistan’s geopolitical merits. Simultaneously, New Delhi’s propaganda of ‘Shining India’ is fast eroding. Needless to say, the most critical geopolitical state actor in these regions is called Pakistan.
Afghanistan: The US-Nato forces or bulk will be withdrawing from Afghanistan. To establish peace and stability in the war-torn country, the principal player – that is Pakistan – needs to be brought on board.
Meanwhile, the leftover US forces besides interests will be dependent on the Pakistani and Russian logistic supply routes. Indeed, Pak-Russia coordination can help bring peace in Afghanistan. Also, the Chinese are increasing their investments and stakes in it.
Against this backdrop, instability needs to be reduced in Afghanistan and militancy blocked from spreading into Central Asia.
The geo-economic and geo-strategic interests of Russia and Pakistan coincide. Energy should travel southwards towards Pakistan and drugs stopped from being smuggled northwards into Russia. Then leftover US- Nato military presence in Afghanistan do not suit Moscow, Beijing or Islamabad and certainly not Tehran for that matter.
India, which prays for US military longevity in Kabul, is at odds with Pakistan, Russia, China and Iran on that score. Simply because even a small foreign military presence there will keep Afghanistan on the path of war, rather than peace.
Gwadar and Energy – Trade, Transit Grid: The Chinese are arriving in Gwadar. The Russians are also keen to join in. For centuries, the Russians coveted these warm-waters. From my book, I quote: “The quest for warm-waters is a coveted aim since Czarist times.......Russia with its firm anchor in Gwadar can support the Asian hinterland development.” This can join southern Russia to the Arabian Sea.
From the Baltic Sea near Saint Petersburg, to Archangel in the north and Vladivostok in the east to the hemmed in Black Seaports, the Russians need warm-waters. The deep seaport Gwadar could fulfil an old Russian dream. In time, Russia’s gas giant Gazprom will join the energy grid of Asia at Pakistan’s Gwadar.
Russia through the Central Asian States can also use the seaport for trade and transit. Gwadar will bind Pakistan, China, Russia and the Central Asian States. The geo-economic interests of these state actors increasingly coincide with their geo-strategic interests.
A Pakistan-Russian friendship pact could prove to the world that both states stand for peace in the world. They seek prosperity for their people, share common values of equality for all nations, freedom for the people, from the Slavic Heartland to Indus River. Both abhor violence; can jointly fight terrorism, separatism, drugs and other evils.
Indeed, Russia under President Vladimir Putin’s leadership is striving for global peace. Pakistan, unfortunately, has suffered for 11 years due to the war on terror being waged in Afghanistan. Now, Pakistanis ardently seek an end to this long and pointless war. For this, Russia and Pakistan can jointly facilitate an American exit strategy from Afghanistan.
Against this backdrop, an understanding between Russia, Pakistan, USA and China can help achieve peace in Afghanistan. This will radiate peaceful waves from the epicentre of Afghanistan.
Russia and Pakistan can also help create consensus in the Central Asian and West Asian regions for peace and geo-economic bonding.
Pakistan-Russian geopolitical understanding is not directed against anyone. Pakistan can maintain its old friendship with USA and strategic partnership with China, while Russia has its traditional relations with India. Still new friendship between Pakistan and Russia will not only benefit both, but also contribute to peace and prosperity in the world.
The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard.
Blog: wwwpakistangeopolitics.
 The Nation Newspaper Pakistan
Inter Services Intelligence by Nadir Mir
ISI (Inter Services Intelligence) is Pakistan’s real national asset. It is the nation’s first line of defence. Globally acknowledged as one of the finest intelligence agencies by friends and foes alike. Yet in the past couple of years, it has been demonized at home and abroad. Demonization of ISI is part of the undercover war on Pakistan.
The history of the ISI would merit a great book. Suffice it to say that from its infancy and mushrooming growth, it was indispensable for Pakistan. The aftermath of bloody partition in 1947, India’s occupation of Kashmir, river water problems and a lot else was the inheritance of young Pakistan. Born truncated, moth eaten, denied of its defensible borders with millions of refugees, water problems aggravated by bellicose, larger India was the environment. A constant Indian threat needed to be met. Alliance with America, building the Pakistan Army and creating the ISI were three major steps to restore balance of power.
Every country needs a spy agency, but Pakistan’s environment demanded something much more than simply an intelligence agency. Pakistan needed the ISI. Once it was created besides classic intelligence agency role, its larger mandate meant to contribute and guard Pakistan’s critical national security.
The political role which periodically was criticized was mostly during the dictator dispensations in Pakistan. The after-math has been that dictators have gone but their infamous legacies persist. The ISI was not responsible per se for installing dictators in Pakistan. This was more due to political system failure and over-ambitious adventurers seizing powers. The ISI remained devoted and loyal to Pakistan and its people regardless of the nature of the regime in power.
Furthermore, to its credit the ISI was mostly right in its analysis, assessments and advice in the historical context. The inadequacies were far lesser than the successes.
Two more points merit considerations:
Firstly, ISI was almost always dealing with major or bigger powers and contenders. It was competing in conflict or matching bigger nations and their intelligence agencies with far greater technological, financial resources. Money is the prime factor in the intelligence game. Still the ISI was frequently more than a match, despite its known handicaps.
Secondly, the ISI’s major successes were strategic even geopolitical and influencing the globe. In the larger picture the ISI in the past and today is on the winning side. The animosity of hostile powers to ISI and recent sinister designs thus becomes apparent.
Ø India
Pakistan’s India problem was quite simple. India was hostile and also big. It was holding Kashmir by force. Kashmir without which Pakistan is incomplete, and without Kashmir river waters unlivable. The ISI monitoring the Indian army mobilization or build-up was professional and balanced. It was neither alarmist nor complacent. In essence, ISI neither provoked war nor let the guard down. In all cases, wars were averted. This contributed to a war avoidance policy which was in the interest of Pakistan and the world.
ISI has played a pivotal role in maintaining balance with India. Simply put, despite Indian preponderance it has not been able to impose its hegemony on Pakistan, the reason the pro-Indian lobby is full of venom about it.
Ø Afghanistan
ISI was fully involved due to two wars in Afghanistan.
§ Soviets in Afghanistan. The Afghan Jihad was supported by Pakistan. ‘The Strategy of Thousand Cuts’ resulted in Soviet withdrawal. After the fall of Berlin wall, a piece of the wall was presented to the brilliant DG ISI General Hamid Gul with the inspiration – ‘One who helped deliver the first blow’. Later the Taliban entrenched themselves in Afghanistan.
§ US NATO in Afghanistan. This was a complicated scenario. On the one hand, Pakistan was non-NATO ally, and on the other India and other hostile forces used Afghanistan to destabilize Pakistan. The situation has been handled deftly by ISI.
Ø Nuclear – strategic security
In the 1980s there was threat of Indo-Israel attack on Kahuta. The threat to Nuclear Pakistan still persists in other forms. ISI played an outstanding role in defending Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.
Ø Regional Peace and Balance
The ISI is striving for regional peace and balance. It is most ably led by senior officers groomed in the art. The DG ISI General Zahirul Islam is proving highly effective. His reported visit to Moscow as a sequel to COAS visit has opened new geopolitical opportunity for Pakistan. Rekindling of ties with USA also appears probable. America’s recent exemption of ISI leaders to US laws disappointed India and is a clear indicator of improving Pakistan-USA relations.
The ISI is not merely a spy agency but working to provide Pakistan the equalizer while dealing with greater powers.
Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard” Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.
The Nation Newspaper Pakistan
Change we need! by Nadir Mir
To begin with, Pakistan needs reforms. Historically all nations demand reforms. Ironically reforms have been planned and implemented by both evolutionary and revolutionary political systems in the world. The British evolutionary system (except for Oliver Cromwell) since Magna Carter till date has reformed itself continuously and constantly.
The French Revolution 1789, followed by the ‘Code Napoleon’ implemented reforms and the laws of France. Even earlier the American revolution of 1775 was actually a war of independence from the British Crown. What made this a real revolution were the numerous reforms which followed in the newly formed USA. Today, China and Turkey plus other successful economic models have reformed themselves. Both are brotherly states for Pakistan and sources of inspiration.
It is to be considered that Pakistan’s situation and environment is unique. Firstly, Pakistan’s geography is superb. It is pivotally located. The confluence of West Asia, Central Asia, China, South Asia and Indian Ocean is a unique factor. It has the potential of being a ‘bridge state’ or interposing state between these multi-regions. The geo-economic potential through Gwadar lies untapped as yet. Its mineral riches abound (Reko Diq riches alone are estimated at $1 trillion). Its variety of terrain and weather gives it numerous opportunities.
Secondly, Pakistan’s demography of 200 million (by 2015) has immense human potential. Its energetic youth is waiting to be tapped. The Muslim identity and culture synergize with numerous regions. Thirdly, Pakistan’s other assets include a long list of tangible or intangible factors.
Fourthly, Pakistan’s geopolitical situation is improving. Pakistan’s strategic and brotherly ally China is rising. USA is withdrawing from Afghanistan which should, however, rekindle friendly relations with America. Pakistan and Russia are befriending each other as well. Alongside peace talks, trade plans continue with India. Turkey, which is Pakistan’s fraternal ally, is also a rising power.
However, the internal dynamics of Pakistan present a different picture. The nation needs to be united; its political system reformed, economy built and elitism replaced by a welfare society. Militancy, law and order problems need to be resolved. The internal scene is often exploited by foreign hostile forces. In any event, Pakistan’s house needs to be put in order.
The question is what needs to be done and by whom? Pakistan needs to be reformed but who will do it? The conventional political parties with status quo mindsets claim it their democratic right. The change seeking political parties is the second group. Reform seekers form the third group. More revolutionary forces are likely to appear on the national scene in future.
Conventional wisdom holds that a great majority of Pakistani people seek change. Real change can come only through reform. Moreover, before reforms are carried out the basic ingredient of unity has to be achieved or else reforms will not be worth the paper written on.
The political system of Pakistan has two major problems. It is divisive and elections are simply money based. A common perception is that an election costs Rs 10 crore as a conventional estimate. In that case 99.99 percent Pakistanis cannot even dream of fighting elections. It is election by the elite, of the elite, for the elite! Even if some from the middle class do make it, the overall system is elite based. Such a political system is a travesty of democracy. In a true republic, as per the constitution, Pakistan belongs to all the people of this country. Two hundred million Pakistanis by 2015 are shareholders and stakeholders.
Elections are not the question. Who gets elected is the question. Political reform in Pakistan must seek to unify not divide people. Difference of opinion does not mean war within Pakistan. The nation needs peace and unity at home. Secondly, unlimited money spent on politics must be controlled through legislation, media and public opinion building. A vibrant, expressive civil society can prove helpful. If a one dish limit can be placed on wedding meals, some financial limit should be imposed on election politics. Furthermore, foreign funding sources for politics in Pakistan need to be scrutinized. The Pakistani middle class must have opportunity to participate directly in politics. So a more balanced political order could emerge.
Pakistan’s woes emanate mainly from political problems. So it is essential that political reforms are carried out first. Only then will Pakistan be able to emerge as a great nation!
n The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard.
Blog: wwwpakistangeopolitics.
The Nation Newspaper Pakistan
Strategic direction of Pakistan Army by Nadir Mir
What is Pakistan Army’s strategic direction? Is it to focus on western border, internal front/security, or eastern border? The simple answer to these questions is that existential threat remains from India and thus the primary focus must be on it.
The new army doctrine has done well to highlight the concept of deterrence and defence. Sub-conventional, conventional and nuclear tiers are the facets of warfare faced by Pakistan today. Yet, the Green Book and Pakistan’s new army doctrine are being misquoted, misunderstood and even exploited by sinister forces. The ISPR that is doing a good job needs to clarify again that the threat from India is increasing in terms of its military build-up, even as Pakistan deals with the post-9/11 non-state actors.
Western Border: By 2014, the US-Nato forces will be leaving Afghanistan, but the Taliban will be staying back! As they withdraw, it will be with the realisation that the use of military force proved inadequate. Also, the Afghan National Army that will be left on its own may collapse just like the South Vietnam Army did once the Americans left Vietnam. Even if Kabul does not fall for some time, the Afghan Taliban will emerge as a dominant force. So Pakistan’s army needs to build friendly relations with the Afghan Taliban.
Indeed, Pakistan has no conflict with the Taliban or other Afghans. A negotiated peace in Afghanistan facilitated by the ISI is in our national interest. After the withdrawal of the US-Nato troops from Afghanistan and reduced stress on the war on terror, the Pak Army’s focus on the Afghan border would reduce considerably. Therefore, logically the western border cannot be the strategic direction of our army in future.
Internal Front/Security: Terrorism has wrecked Pakistan’s internal fibre, economy, terrorised the society, resulted in thousands of deaths and untold tragedies. To deal with it, the state needs to pursue political, social and economic reforms. All elements of national power need to be harmonised to achieve synergetic effect against the terrorist malaise.
For the security component, an internal security force (perhaps under military command, but a separate organisation) must be established, trained and equipped. Globally, several internal security force models are available. The Pakistan Army was not created, nor is configured for policing duties. It should not be reduced to a glorified, elevated police force that is, probably, the intention of the state’s internal and external enemies.
Eastern Border: India continues to occupy Kashmir, the water issue has aggravated, resource clash with India rises. It arms feverishly and has become the world’s biggest arms importer. The Indian military developmental strategy (fleets of helicopters, high-tech airpower build up, etc) is to give teeth to its ‘Cold Start’ strategy. But the ‘Cold Start’ or attack within 72 hours of preparation cannot conquer Pakistan. Even the American view was that it could have mixed results.
In fact, now the ‘Cold Start’ offensive can lead to catastrophic effect. Pakistan’s defensive preparations, besides early mobilisation would be augmented by the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons Nasr against advancing Indian military forces. This, in turn, can lead to strategic nuclear exchange or an all-out nuclear war. A nuclear war will destroy the world in general, not just South Asia.
So a nuclear war must be avoided, which actually means that all wars between Pakistan and India need to be avoided. Peace is required between the two states. Diplomacy, trade and travel can prove helpful. However, absence of conflict can be the real guarantee of peace.
Nevertheless, Kashmir remains a flashpoint between India and Pakistan, and has to be resolved. A recent military clash in Kashmir could always escalate. If our army is oriented towards the western border and embroiled in the internal front, New Delhi will not even talk about Kashmir, let alone the desire to resolve it.
Peace with India: Peace talks with India, besides Kashmir, should focus on defence budget limits and military hardware inductions to ensure strategic balance. Both countries need to improve the quality of life of their citizens, rather than an open-ended arms race.
In future, the Pak Army will have to disengage from the western border, make peace on the internal front (Taliban, Baloch militants) and refocus on the eastern border.
After 2014, Pakistan Army will need to redeploy itself. This would add conventional deterrence to the ‘Cold Start’ and reduce the use of nuclear weapons, even though Pakistan’s credible nuclear deterrence would be in place.
However, peace with India can be achieved. For this, Pakistani statecraft should be backed by a lavishly nuclear armed, professional war fighting military machine called the Pakistan Army!
The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard. Email: Blog:
The Nation Newspaper Pakistan
Pakistan: revolution and war by Nadir Mir
Pakistan may face revolution at home and war on the border. The environment in Pakistan is charged, to say the least. This is a combination of internal dynamics and geopolitics, reaching critical mass.
For over a decade, the Pakistani nation has been squeezed on many fronts. Ever since the war on terror began, Pakistan’s western border has become a war zone; its economy has been ruined, inflation gallops and militancy prevails. On top of that Indian threats mount, even as America plans to withdraw from Afghanistan.
Against this backdrop, three major dynamics are combining. These include US drawdown from Afghanistan, Pakistani people’s demand for change and India’s overt hostility toward Pakistan.
Pakistan Revolution: In Pakistan, the people have been deprived of the basics of life. Law and order problems persist in the country. Many people, who joined the long march, merely wanted electricity, gas, affordable fuel, jobs, etc. Undoubtedly, they have been robbed and deprived of their basic rights for ages. Still the brave, frugal and patriotic people maintain great love for their country and faith in Allah for a bright future of their children.
Pakistan’s main problem is the corrupt and decadent elite that is self-serving and foreign influenced. They have robbed the wealth of this country and transferred it abroad. For this, they were either facilitated or blackmailed by the foreign powers. In power circles, thus, the elite continued to do their bidding for geopolitical ends. Resultantly, poor and middle income people are getting poorer, while the country is getting destabilised.
Certainly, the elite outlook is parochial and not nationalistic. They have entrenched themselves in lands, business, bureaucracy and other levers of power. They monopolise wealth and there is little trickledown effect. This has not only deprived the masses, but also marginalised and confused them. Every effort has been made to divide Pakistanis by our internal and external enemies.
But now they are awaking from their deep slumber. They are uniting for a new Pakistan; they are seeking their basic rights. The next wave of revolutionary fervour would obviously be much more radical. Of course, democracy is still the way out, and the elections must lead to a reformed Pakistan. In future, two hundred million Pakistanis must be shareholders and stakeholders.
War against Pakistan: Even as the Americans depart from Afghanistan, India has started beating the war drum. Pakistan had hoped for peace once the Americans had left Afghanistan, but the eastern border became hot. After the recent clashes in Kashmir, the Indian army and air chiefs threatened Pakistan. Even the Indian Prime Minister has changed his tone towards Pakistan.
The Pakistan Army, while bravely defending the country, has acted with restraint and prudence. Surprisingly, despite Islamabad’s sincere efforts for peace, New Delhi is moving away from it. In spite of the fact that recently no terror strike took place in India for which Pakistan could be blamed, India intends to increase military presence along the border.
There are three basic reasons why India could follow a policy of confrontation with Pakistan. First, the USA’s military withdrawal from Afghanistan is making it nervous. Second, India wants to exploit any turmoil in Pakistan before it regains balance. Thirdly, New Delhi itself was unnerved by the rape protests and the gloss being removed from ‘Shining India’.
Furthermore, Kashmir or other problems add to its internal woes. And then there is little point of being the world’s number one arms importer and having a big army, if the neighbours are not to be bullied.
Reform Pakistan: The time to reform Pakistan has arrived. In Pakistan, the elite-based society must give way to a welfare society. The new political future of Pakistan should be of a united, wealth-sharing, peace-oriented culture with nationalistic aspirations. In Turkey, for example, much has been achieved through free and fair elections, while Egypt represents the much-hyped Tahrir Square model. However, an elected government can reform the country; if not, then a revolution may be likely!
Cold Peace with India: Nuclear armed Pakistan and India must avoid war. By resolving the Kashmir dispute, permanent peace can be achieved. The Pakistani government should neither confront India, nor appease it. A middle course will be ‘cold peace’, which means “peace but not friendship.” Friendly relations, however, can be maintained between the two countries once the core issues are resolved.
Pakistan’s army is well prepared, but India can miscalculate. Spending billions of dollars for buying more arms or Rafale fighter aircrafts after the Kashmir clash is suggestive of New Delhi’s militarist intent.
In addition to enhanced nuclear deterrence, Pakistani army needs to build up conventional deterrence, even while avoiding an arms race. This implies peace on the western border and internal front to refocus in the east. While pursuing peace with India, Pakistan must be fully prepared to deter war.
Having said that, the Kashmir border escalation has been controlled this time. But will the war be avoided next time?
The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard.
Blog: wwwpakistangeopolitics.
 The Nation Newspaper Pakistan
Strengthen Pak-US friendship by Nadir Mir
Pakistan and America were and, perhaps, still are friends. Nevertheless, mostly this relationship has been a roller coaster ride, especially after the Afghan war that is the major cause of instability in Pakistan. Consequently, the economy is collapsing, militancy is increasing impacting Pak-US relations. Despite geopolitical bondage Islamabad and Washington blamed each other for it. Now with America’s planned exit from Afghanistan, there is a need to strengthen Pak-US friendship.
The US should be seen by Islamabad as a friend after its forces leave the neighbourhood, and Washington needs to get rid of its obsessive thoughts about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. It needs to realise that a strong, stable and economically vibrant nuclear Pakistan is required to bring about a nuclear balance in South Asia; it poses no threat to anyone.
Against this backdrop, Secretary of State John Kerry’s pragmatic and amiable views about Pakistan are a good omen. Hopefully, friendly relations with the US will develop in the future.
Pak-US Geopolitics: America is a global power, but also a non-Eurasian power. Washington has a long list of geopolitical concerns. Afghanistan should be on the wane, while Middle East and Africa are rising issues. The Afghan war has lasted too long. President Barack Obama, thus, has taken a bold and wise decision to drawdown the forces Afghanistan. Pakistan can facilitate America in its exit strategy and help stabilise the war-torn country after the occupation forces leave.
Having said that, Mali and Algeria and Africa at large would now be the US-Nato forces’ major concern. The turbulence in North Africa, West Africa and larger Middle East is linked. After all, the geographically and economically north and west Africa is closer to Europe than Afghanistan, and a greater concern of the western world.
Moreover, the United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM or AFRICOM) was established to ensure American interests. Now, Washington needs to outsource its security concerns to Islamabad to achieve a negotiated peace in Afghanistan. For this purpose, the Pak-US relationship should be improved.
Pakistan seeks peace at home and peace abroad. Washington must respect the aspirations of Pakistani people and coordinate with the army and ISI for a peaceful Pakistan and Afghanistan. The ISI has greatly contributed to regional balance. All this is to America’s advantage so that it exits Afghanistan without worrying about leaving behind an explosive region. The reality is that Pakistan’s army would be the only professional, powerful military force between River Oxus and River Sutlej after the US has left Afghanistan.
All things considered, Pak-US geopolitical interests should coincide in future, only if Washington respects our national interests.
Pak-US Geo-economics: America’s geo-strategy should give way to geo-economics in Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Central Asian Region.
The Central Asian energy and mineral resources can be easily piped through existing conduits through Afghanistan to the deep Gwadar seaport on the Arabian Sea. Pakistan is already coordinating with China and, perhaps, even Russia for geo-economic confluence. Yet, this is not a zero-sum game.
The USA can also be an economic partner, or part of a greater consortium. Energy and transit highways from Central Asia, the old silk route (China-Pakistan), and even the new silk route (Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) are all possible only through Pakistan. Therefore, it can serve as a bridge between the regions of Central Asia, West Asia, China and South Asia. This can be achieved in an environment of peace. Otherwise, Pakistan has the potential of acting as an interposing state.
Future Geopolitics: With Iraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s re-election, the chances of Israel-Iran conflict may rise. This may embroil the USA even if by default, while North Korea and USA’s relations can worsen. It seems that America is going to remain busy even after it departs from Afghanistan.
Pak-Afghan friendship and geo-economics ties are keys to regional peace. The training of the Afghan forces by Pakistan should go a long way in achieving the quest for stability. Islamabad can bring Kabul and Taliban on the negotiating table. On the whole, America, Pakistan, China and Russia can help achieve lasting peace in Afghanistan.
As Indian ambitions increase, there may be a divergence of interest with the US. Washington has leverage with Russia, China, the EU and other parts of the globe. On India, the main leverage is Pakistan. No matter how much New Delhi talks of ‘Shining India’, it would remain embroiled with Pakistan until it settles the Kashmir dispute.
Even as Israel, and even USA, come in conflict with Iran, a moderating and war-avoiding role can be played by Pakistan. Washington can benefit from Pakistan’s diplomacy that is not just limited to Afghanistan. By the same token, Washington should discourage centrifugual tendencies in Balochistan. Indeed, a united, peaceful, prosperous and nuclear-armed Pakistan is in the interest of regional balance and American efforts for a stable world.
The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard. Email: Blog:
The Nation Newspaper Pakistan
American influence in the Middle East slipping
September 29, 2012 |

      America’s image and influence has taken more of a beating within the Middle East, credit goes to the anti-Islam film. The movie, which appeared on YouTube has yet to be taken down. Meanwhile, both Iran and Israel are becoming increasing defiant of America’s calls for peace. Retired Pakistani General and author of the book ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’, Nadir Mir, told The Voice of Russia that Russia is the only player that might be able to help.

    YouTube, which is owned by Google, has refused to take down the video. Instead it decided merely to block the video from being accessed in the countries where protests have turned violent.

    YouTube released a statement saying; “This video, which is widely available on the web, is clearly within our guidelines and so will stay on YouTube. However, given the very difficult situation in Libya and Egypt we have temporarily restricted access in both countries.”

    While the film will still be shown around the world, because of YouTube’s refusal to take it down, some countries are planning to filter out the video or ban the website completely.

    One of those countries is Russia; it has been talking about blocking the video to help prevent the damage it has already caused from spreading further. Retired Pakistani General and author of the book ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’, Nadir Mir told The Voice of Russia “as Russia plans on banning sites hosting this film, they are heading in the right direction. Russia is rightly sensitive to its Muslim population’s sentiments and also those in Central Asia.”

    As other countries are currently looking into these bans, American interests have suffered because of the film, but it seems America may still be able to pick up the pieces and salvage its image.

    America will need to start promoting peace and, according to Nadir Mir, “America can make its embassies safe, not by adding walls and layers of security but by getting back to pure diplomatic work. The American embassies should be the abode of the State Department and not infested with every kind of special force and military contractor. In addition, America needs to respect Islam and Muslims instead of demonising them”.

    This will be a gigantic task for America to take on; Nadir Mir also added that the film was just one more nail in the coffin of America’s good relations in the Middle East, where there is ever-increasing anti-US sentiment. “The American image was already tarnished over decades of wars and empty promises. In fact, the film was one more catalyst of hate and there may be more to come”, he added.

    The fact that America’s influence is slipping in the Middle East can be shown by the fact that both Iran and Israel are becoming increasingly defiant of America’s calls for peace. Nadir Mir also hinted at the fact that the only player that might help is Russia. “This potential war will not only become a regional conflict quickly, but might even possibly lead to a World War III situation. Moscow’s efforts for peace must be appreciated, more than ever before.”

    The short-term damage that the blasphemous film has inflicted on the American image seems to be expanding into longer-term problems. Nadir Mir believes that America needs start backing off and should not provoke Muslim feelings any further. He also stated that President Obama has done a good job so far at just that. “It would not be prudent for America to provoke things further. In fact, President Obama’s restraint is seen as a prudent act as things begin to boil over.” He told The Voice of Russia.

    The road to recovery will be a massive undertaking for America, which is now faced with a huge damage control exercise. The challenge of regaining a certain influence in the Middle East might be harder than it sounds. America’s decisions will not only be essential on the path to peace but may also prove to be too much to take on. –Voice of Russia

    The Nation Newspaper Pakistan 

    Target - Pakistan Army

    By: Nadir Mir | September 25, 2012 |
    Apparently, Pakistan Army is the target. It is being assailed by friends and foes alike. The army, which has stood like a rock in the country’s defence, is the hurdle for its enemies. Our enemies believe that by weakening the army and demonising the ISI,Pakistancan be denuclearised and balkanised. This is, indeed, the illogic of imperialist-hegemonic powers. Yet, more astounding is the role ofPakistan’s civilian-political leadership, who seeks to shrink the army’s space in national affairs. Even while lamenting the ‘last military dictator’, it is the army that is facing the gauntlet. A case in point is the alleged NLC scam.
    The ISPR issued succinct comments on the subject. On the NLC issue, in essence, the army took some unprecedented steps. The matter was logically and legally against these retired senior officers. Even while due process of law is under way, misperceptions are being created that should be dispelled. The fact is that the ISPR has done a good job in clarifying the mist and the matter should not be politicised any longer. Even local newspapers have elucidated the ISPR’s viewpoint clearly and convincingly. It is true that there should be no holy cows and the law must take its course. By the same token, military systems all over the world also resort to institutional actions when required. In any event, premature disinformation is not warranted till matters have reached their logical conclusion.
    The army’s image may improve due to legal transparency, yet it should not become a precedent for witch-hunt. The officers of various ranks over the last decades have been performing multiple duties. These include, besides basic military duties, martial laws, involvement in civil affairs, intelligence tasks and, more recently, anti-militant operations. Opening a Pandora’s Box of alleged complaints will lead to lowering the military’s morale, besides other adverse affects. Except for multibillion scams or gross violation of the Constitution, other matters should be left to the army’s own internal accountability. In any event, selective accountability - whether of the army, politicians or any other group or institution - will do more harm than good. Reportedly, billions of dollars are stacked in overseas bank accounts by incumbents of previous regime. Accountability for all should be acceptable to all.
    The issue is not that the army is above accountability; nor the civilian supremacy is being challenged. The real issue is whatever mistakes were made by it (all armies make mistakes, including Napoleon’s Grand Armée, Hitler’s Wehrmacht and even US post-RMA hyper forces etc), they are being mixed up with anti-Pakistan stratagems of foreign foes. While historicallyPakistanfaces multifaceted challenges, the recent surge in information warfare onslaught is daunting.
    An unrelenting media campaign has been launched in foreign lands and withinPakistanagainst our national interests. The foreign hostile agenda is mostly geopolitically driven. The local component is either foreign sponsored or misguided and, in some cases, simply frustrated with the prevailing national order. Frequently though, the foreign plus local tirade is directed at the army.
    ISI: This fine institution (among the best in the world) deftly defending the nation, and most ably led, is the ire ofPakistan’s enemies. The non-state actors, Balochistan, the militants to the cyber warfare in India etc, are all bogey of the demonisation campaign launched againstPakistan’s first line of defence.
    Nukes:Pakistan’s strides in nuclear warfare haunt those who harbour animosity for this country. Of late,Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapon NASR with its 60km range, reflecting miniaturisation expertise and deterrence enhancer is the phobia of foreign think tanks.
    Balochistan: The solution to Balochistan’s problems lies withinPakistan(inclusive of Baloch viewpoint) and not with the UN or anybody else. While Balochistan merits urgent resolution, foreign meddling only spoils the issue.
    Untouchables: Foreign agents have become untouchables. Those who betrayPakistan, work for foreign powers and break local laws are being projected akin to heroes. After the May incident in Abbottabad, for example, Dr Afridi’s CIA sponsored polio campaign had resulted in an anti-polio campaign. Next, Hussain Haqqani after the memo debacle was offered succour byUSA.
    The need of the hour is national unity. Whatever shortcomings are present within the national system or grievances with any individual or group, they should not be directed at the army. Serious issues should neither be dogmatically preached, nor slanderously projected via media. They demand proper knowledge, analysis, and presentation that should not forsake the national cause.
    The Pakistan Army has heroically fought against multiple adversaries, even in overwhelming odds defendedPakistan. Its prestige is the prestige of the nation. All citizens must support the army in its sacred duties. It, in turn, must remain professional, apolitical, nationalistic and brave. It should further distance itself from the infamous legacy of the previous regime; the challenges ahead demand these virtues from the army. The Pakistan Army supported by the Pakistani nation can weather all storms.Pakistan’s real enemy is outsidePakistan, even if they harbour quislings within.
    The geopolitical winds favourPakistan:Middle Eastis ablaze with anti- Americanism in which the Americans will be embroiled even further. The Americans will be leaving with the bulk of their forces fromAfghanistan, resulting in reduction ofPakistan’s destabilisation. The Chinese will be arriving in Gwadar and bondingPakistanin an even tighter geopolitical economic embrace. The Russians will bePakistan’s new friend. The visit of Pakistan Air Chief, followed by the COAS toMoscowand President Putin inIslamabadopens new geopolitical options.
    Pakistan Army remains determined and prepared to defend the country. The nation remains prepared to support it!
    The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a book tittled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard. Blog:

    Windows to Russia

    Dear President Vladimir Putin,

    First of all congratulations for being elected as President of Russia.

    This is a historical period for Russia and critical for World Peace.

    My brief introduction is Brigadier Nadir Mir (Retired) from Pakistani Army. Now I am a writer, geopolitician and working for world peace. Some of my articles have been published in Pravda ru and Windows to Russia. In my book ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ I have urged the need for Russian cooperation at Gwadar. I am a strong believer of Russian – Pakistani friendship. Your dynamic and strong leadership is required by both Russia and the world. Your peaceful geopolitical efforts are restoring world balance. The people of the planet yearn for peace and prosperity and look up to you as a world leader.

    In Pakistan, we seek very close relations with Russia. Your visit to Pakistan is being eagerly awaited and I would like to work for Russian – Pakistani friendship.

    In the end I pray for your good health and prosperity for Russia.

    With best wishes and highest regards

    Brigadier Nadir Mir

    US drones strikes prompt Pakistan to strengthen ties with Russia

    Aug 9, 2012 14:09 Moscow Time

    As anti-American sentiment grows in Pakistan, one retired Pakistani General believes it is time for Pakistan and Russia to build stronger ties. With the war in Afghanistan spilling into Pakistan, Brigadier Nadir Mir believes America needs to stop overstepping its bounds. The recent drone attacks in Pakistan have put a strain on the very fragile relationship between the two countries.

    “The Drone strikes are not only an attack on land but also on Pakistan’s sovereignty. They lead to extremism and radicalism, as many innocent people get killed or injured. Pakistan has regularly warned the USA to end Drone strikes. The attacks have resulted in increasing Anti-Americanism. The strikes are counterproductive, they help produce more militants then they kill.” Brigadier Nadir Mir told The Voice of Russia.
    However, the general also believes that America and Pakistan can rekindle their ties, if only to a certain extent. He states that bringing peace to Afghanistan is in a great interest for both countries.
    “Pakistan and America can rekindle their ties to an extent; the strain in ties is due to US War in Afghanistan spilling over into Pakistan. Efforts should be made for negotiated peace in Afghanistan, a stable but unoccupied Afghanistan is in the interest of Pakistan, USA, Russia, China and everybody else.” He added.

    Will making a pact with Russia be fruitful for Pakistan? Brigadier Nadir Mir certainly thinks so. “Russia and Pakistan can help create consensus in the entire Central Asian – West Asian regions for peace and Geo-economic bonding.”
    Pakistan clearly is looking to become a major economic player in the world as it aims to bring in support from China and other neighboring countries.
    China has already spent hundreds of millions in developing Pakistan, creating new trade routes into their own country as well as spreading their own influence.
    According to Brigadier Nadir Mir, Russia is the obvious step in creating a new world power for Pakistan. “By joining a pact with Pakistan, Russia and China can establish an economic power house.”
    Brigadier Nadir Mir also states “Pakistan is located at the crossroads of empires. Geo-economically it is a ‘Bridge State’ between multi regions, geo-strategically; it is the ‘Interposing State’.”
    According to Brigadier Nadir Mir, America’s war is not the only reason for Pakistan seeking stronger ties with Russia. The fact of the matter is, America is an ocean away, and Russia is logically a powerful neighbor that they wish to embrace.
    “For decades Pakistan has been an American ally which is oceans away, Russia is much closer. Moscow and Islamabad need to build a stronger relationship.” He added.
    No matter how we look at this, America seems to be losing its influence around the world. As China and Russia pick up the pieces, America will be trying hard to rekindle any ties it had with Pakistan as well as other countries in the Middle East and South Asia.

     Interview with Pakistani Brigadier Nadir Mir (R)
    Interview with Brigadier Nadir Mir (R), SI (M) ndc, afwc, fsc (T), psc, qsl
              Soldier      to       Scholar
    By D.S. Hurrell
    Dallas College
    Q1: Your book ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ outlined the economic and strategic potential this port has for Pakistan. For those who have not read your book, could you elaborate on this strategic port?

    A1: A vision of the planet’s pivotal geography in fusion with Pakistan is the concept– a geo-economical concept, potentially becoming one of the most important city in the world. “Gwadar is the next Dubai”. Many think-tanks are of the opinion that the imminent control of the Chinese spells the creation of a new Dubai in Pakistan. Or as the American author Robert D Kaplan writes, “At the intersection of Empires, the Port City of Gwadar could become the new silk route nexus”. My aims of writing this book: ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ are Firstly
    •To project Gwadar’s great potential – a major economic alternative, to begging for funds.
    •Gwadar Concept is not limited to the Mekran Coast. It is in fact an Economy Changer for all of Pakistan.
    A Bonanza for Baluchistan.
    •China the world’s second biggest economy needs to be fully linked to Gwadar.
    •Pakistan needs an economic and cultural bonding with multi-regions. This includes China, Central Asian States, Russia, West Asia- Iran, Saudi Arabia – Gulf States, Turkey and Africa.

    •Gwadar though vital has been neglected – victim of negative politics and hostile Geopolitics.
    •Baluchistan’s problems (Exploited by India and foreign powers) demand attention and resolution.
    •The Geo-Political indicators favour Gwadar Development.
    The Gwadar Concept
    •The Global Chessboard is dynamic and evolving. Global economic balance is shifting. Pakistan should initiate a pro-active Geo-economic policy.
    •Optimize Pakistan’s Multiregional Geography for Geo-economics gains. Pakistan’s economic bonding with China, Central Asian States – Russia, West Asia – Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Gulf States and Africa.
    •Gwadar Port is concept based. The concept is to synergize Pakistan’s multiregional (Geo-Strategic) location, Open Sea Board for Oil – Gas Pipelines, Energy Centre, Transshipment, Transit, Trade, and Finance Generation.
    •Gwadar is the Future of Pakistan.

    Q2: Is there a link between unrest in Balochistan, the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline and the Gwadar Port?

    A2: There is a clear Geopolitical link between unrest in Balochistan, the Iran Pakistan gas pipeline and the Gwadar Port.
    Firstly, the Balochistan unrest is Pakistan’s internal problem. This issue must be solved as per Pakistani (including Baloch) aspirations but without foreign meddling. Secondly, reportedly, USA is chiseling a West Asian Strategy. This includes war against Iran and destabilizing Pakistani Balochistan and Irani Seastan. In my article ‘Balochistan and Geopolitics’ published in Pravda ru (Moscow) and Nation (Pakistan), I had highlighted some of these aspects. The Americans want to sever Pakistan Iran (including gas pipeline), block China from reaching Indian Ocean at Gwadar. With Pakistan’s new friendship with Russia, even curtail Moscow’s influence at Gwadar in future. Recent American writings betray their Geo strategic designs. One article is quoted below:
    ‘To counter what China is doing in Pakistan, the United States should play hardball by supporting the movement for an independent Baluchistan along the Arabian Sea and working with Baluch insurgents to oust the Chinese from their budding naval base at Gwadar. Beijing wants its inroads into Gilgit and Baltistan to be the first step on its way to an Arabian Sea outlet at Gwadar.’
    Selig S. Harrison
    “Chinese Cozy Up to the Pakistanis”
    The Indians have been trying to destabilize Balochistan for ages. If India was not so hostile, it would have remained in the Iran – Pakistan – India (IPI) gas pipeline project, despite American pressure. A quote below is self-evident; Stable Pakistan Not in India’s Interest

    The fact is that there is no need for confrontation. Pakistan seeks peace and prosperity of which Gwadar is one manifestation. If the Chinese and Americans can do business in Dubai, USA and China, then why not at Gwadar? A global consortium can be proposed by Pakistan, addressing US concerns and Chinese requirements. As my book ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ highlights that Gwadar is not a zero sum game. Gwadar can connect South Africa to China, Russia through the shortest routes and can bring peace and prosperity to dozens of nations. All can benefit from this gift of nature.

    Q3: We have seen Property prices in Kabul drop as a result of the expectations that chaos will follow the withdrawal of American forced from Afghanistan in 2014. How do you think the withdrawal will affect Pakistan?
    A3: The fall of property prices in Kabul may be an indicator of future events. In fact Afghanistan needs peace like the rest of the world. Consider the fact that the last three decades have seen only war. First the Soviets then the Muhahideen, later Taliban and now Americans/NATO. The Americans are withdrawing but plan to leave behind between 10,000

    and 30,000 troops. (Mostly Special Operation Forces). The war will continue, at some level. The Afghanistan War will not end till all foreign military forces withdraw and the majority Pakhtoons (including Taliban) are part of the solution. This implies a negotiated settlement, which leads to durable peace. This is possible but only if Pakistan is the peace maker and sponsor. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan and peace prospects are ideal for Pakistan. A tiny fraction of the elite has prospered from the Afghan War. The rest of Pakistan has suffered enormously from the war next door. Over 40,000 causalities estimated 80 billion dollars in losses suffered, National fiber weakened and Pakistan destabilized. US Drone strikes act as a catalyst for extremism and radicalism. Therefore, in essence US military withdrawal followed by peace should be very welcome in Pakistan and the region.
    A new leaf should be turned. US Geo strategy should be replaced by Geo-economics. Landlocked Afghanistan should be linked to Pakistan’s – Gwadar. The Americans are welcome as investors – businessman (they are even welcome in Vietnam where they fought a long war). Pakistan and America were friends before the US War in Afghanistan. They should remain friends after America leaves Afghanistan.

    Q4: A lot of mention is made of Pakistan’s weaknesses, the enormous strains pulling the country apart. My impression of Karachi when I visited in 2011 was that of a city under siege, perhaps a symbol of the country as a whole. Can you tell us about Pakistan’s strengths?

    A4: Pakistan’s strength is the most pertinent question, but often neglected. Thank you for asking it.
    Pakistan’s Geography
    Its location is super. The location is globally pivotal. If North of it Is the famed Mackinder’s Heartland, itself a part of Spykman’s Rimland. It is located on the Cross Road of Empires. It joins Central Asia, West Asia, South Asia and Indian Ocean. Geo economically it is a ‘Bridge State’ between multi regions, Geo strategically, it is the ‘Interposing State’. West of it is oil rich Gulf, North West energy rich Caspian Sea/Caucasus. River waters, glaciers in the north, Arabian Sea – Indian Ocean in the South.
    For a medium sized state, it has all kind of terrain, deserts plains, coast, hilly, snow mountain regions and all four weathers. Its natural treasures abound (though mostly untapped or utilized so far). Reko Dik Gold Reserve in Baluchistan estimated over $ 1 trillion. Thar Coal Reserves in Sindh have energy estimated equal to Saudi Arabia – Iran oil energy output combined. A lot else to follow. Only Kashmir and its river waters occupied by India is the problem.

    •The second is demography
    By 2015 Pakistan’s population will be 200 million of which 65 % or 130 million will be youth. This energetic – nationalist youth bulge is Pakistan’s future and strength. Pakistan’s national character includes ‘faith in Islam’, ‘love for Pakistan’, ‘courage and spirit of freedom’.
    •Thirdly, Military and Nuclear Strength
    Pakistan’s Military is strong, professional and motivated to defend Pakistan. Its nuclear strength is robust and sophisticated. This is to ensure deterrence as Pakistan believes in peaceful resolutions of all disputes. Pakistan cannot be conquered by anyone.

    Q5: What advice would you give the young future leaders of Pakistan?

    A5: My advice to young future leaders of Pakistan is as under:
    •Firstly, unite all Pakistanis on one nationalist platform and achieve consensus for national interests.
    •Secondly, a reformist agenda to rid Pakistan of major ills. Build Gwadar and revive a national economic cycle.
    •Thirdly, a pro people welfare system for ensuring decent basic living to the nation.
    •Fourthly, stressing on all forms of education for human resource development of the youth bulge.
    •Last yet not least, ensuring national sovereignty and security at all costs.
    Pakistan Zindabad!

    Brigadier Nadir Mir author of ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ is a veteran of the Pakistan Army.
    His blog is Pakistan and Geopolitics ( and his next book Geopolitik Pakistan (A Global and Futuristic Outlook) is being published
    Nuclear Discourse (A Nuclear Discussion at Two Tiers – South Asia and Global) is being revised and updated.

    The Global Anti Elite Revolution
    Posted by EU Times on Jun 2nd, 2012 / Nadir Mir

     Revolution is in the air – Globally. At least the first wave of revolutionary fervour has struck the world. Commencing from unlikely Tunisia, spreading through dormant Egypt, toppling the Libyan strongman, the North African – Arabian Peninsula rejoiced in the Arab Spring. Yet the ‘Occupy Wall Street’ and western world change seekers are even more dramatic. Striking at the heart of capitalism, the affluent Western World is reeling under the unprecedented onslaught. The Global Anti Elite Revolution is spreading at a time when the western world’s socio economic system is in disrepute.

    Once the Bastille was stormed on 14 July 1789 in Paris, the French king Louis XVI was informed that it was not a revolt, but a revolution. This is what the unfolding scenario appears like today. What differentiates the present and apparently future crisis is not chaotic civil strife – rioting but idea and concept based spontaneous radical game change. There are a number of issues involved here, but a central one is ‘Equality’. The monopolistic elites in most of the world control bulk of the wealth, power and resources leaving a paltry or marginal part for the masses or the majority. The traditional have nots are being joined by a large segment of the middle classes against an elite culture increasingly demonized in the information age. In the Middle East besides economic equality, political – social cultural equality drives the protesters. In USA and EU, it is more to do with economic equality as political, socio, cultural restrictions are relatively few.

    The French Revolution was followed by numerous in Europe of 1848, once the Metternich conservative order was challenged, in multiple states. While Revolutions were a historical occurrence the Russian 1917, Chinese 1949, Iranian 1979 became more notable on geopolitical account. Hitler’s Nazi Revolution entered history books with the fall of Berlin 1945.

    Francis Fukuyama (in The End of History) proclaimed the death of communism and victory of capitalism. Today capitalism is under attack in its own bastion. If the Soviet Communist order lasted from 1917 till 1991, the capitalists’ victory over Marxist Leninists – appears short lived also. From 1991 — 2011, a twenty years period was the glory of capitalism. Though of course ‘Pure unbridled Capitalism’ will be under severe strain in future. That this has happened in the West should be no surprise. Karl Mark a German, writing ‘Das Capital’, had clearly Germany in mind, and of course the classic ‘Mother of all Revolutions’ 1979 was French!

    The Marxist Revolution was initially meant for rapidly industrializing ‘Deutschland’ rather than serfdom based ‘Mother Russia’. Irony of history, Geopolitics and First World War etc helped usher March and October 1917 Revolutions in Moscow. Germany was still revolution prone, but the rise of Hitler deflected it into nationalism and racialism. Still the word Nazi stood for National Socialists!

    Today Revolution is globally becoming a house hold word. USA, EU and large parts of the world will experience radical – revolutionary upheaval. The most ironic part of the tale is that America may be ripe for a Second Revolution. The First American Revolution, commenced as the war of independence from the British Crown, followed by numerous reforms that followed and later expansion that created the modern United States. There are several reasons for the Second American Revolution. The US economy is in decline; at least its share of Global GDP is shrinking. Washington’s endless wars and outrageous expenses could put the most notorious spend thrift in history to shame. Wealth within USA is monopolized by the elite. So long as the lower and lower middle classes were in the financial comfort zone, no one thought of ‘Occupy Wall Street’ movement. Now Ron Paul himself talks of Revolution.

    By 2020 China’s economy may supersede USA. Washington’s policy of containing Russia (with the world’s largest land space) and China (the world’s future largest economy) may not be doable. In fact, America’s super expensive wars of the previous decade have already ruined its economy. The cumulative effect of all this would inspire the good hearted, charity giving, God fearing, amiable folks in America for a real change. Amazingly Washington supported the ‘Arab Spring’ movement, which was in fact the right thing to do, but the chickens are coming home to roost! (A Libyan Revolutionary banner said it all – ‘today Libya, tomorrow Wall Street’). As per one analysis USA is among the most unequal societies.

    The environment on the European continent is even more bleak for the present economic order. The European economic malaise, EU interstate disparities are further aggravating its crisis. The Euro Crisis is not simply a financial matter. It also has nationalistic, socio – cultural facets at work. Germany and Greece have not only different economies but also have different people. EU faces both intra and inter European economic issues. EU may manage its issues but the future remains uncertain. After all Europe was the birth place of modern revolutions and revolutionaries. The word radical, recently reflective of militants – terrorists may be realigned with traditional anarchists and revolutionaries.

    The situation in countries like India – Pakistan and others are even worse in terms of equality. India with its inequality based ethos, may not see a revolution, but rather may face civil war and turmoil. The Brahman inspired Delhi order would strive to crush all such movements or term them as ‘terrorists’! (the most popular word in India). The world’s richest and poorest people live in India. Even while India wastes money as the world’s biggest arms importer, hundreds of millions of Indians live in abject poverty. There are more hungry people in eight Indian states than all of Africa. The Maoists and other revolutionaries are fighting the Indian system and have been termed as the biggest internal threat by Delhi.

    Pakistan of course is getting ripe for a revolution, because a corrupt, foreign influenced and incompetent elite monopolies most wealth and delivers little. People are losing faith in an unresponsive political system in Pakistan. The economic meltdown further emboldens militants, anarchists and miscreants. A reform revolution is the only solution to Pakistan’s predicament. A new welfare state model and not monopolistic elite based system is the need of the hour

    The world yearns for peace and prosperity. An end to wars and fair distribution of wealth within nations and societies would lead to a better world. This may have sounded utopia yesterday but is the road map for tomorrow.

    The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army. Geopolitics of Peace is an endeavour by Nadir Mir.

    The alternative global nuclear war is too apocalyptic to contemplate.   


    The Nation Newspaper Pakistan Tuesday, March 20, 2012

    Balochistan and geopolitics
    By: Nadir Mir,  March 02, 2012

    Recently, a resolution was passed in the US Congress to divide Pakistan and carve out an ‘independent Balochistan’. With this, an old neocon dream was revived. This time the so-called globalists and propagandists, masquerading as human right activists, are the cheerleaders. Against this backdrop, Colonel Ralph Peter’s map of the ‘New Middle East’ truncating, balkanising every country - Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan - was reproduced. Despite the fact that it was scorned and reviled even at the time of its earlier exhibition. It seems that the neocons and influential globalists of America desperately want to initiate World War III. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s interview, If you can’t hear the drums of war, you must be deaf, with Alfred Heinz on November 27, 2011, is a clear expression of this desire. The neocon-globalist geopolitical wish list - the rationale for the so-called ‘independent Balochistan’ - is as under:

    i Cripple Pakistan by separating Balochistan (46 percent of its territory with large mineral resources, besides the future global port of Gwadar).

    i Balkanised Pakistan forced to give up its nuclear arsenal.

    i Establish India’s hegemony over Pakistan.

    i Leftover US forces in Afghanistan and US controlled ‘new Balochistan’ to act as strategic central position for multi-regions.

    i US controlled Afghanistan-Balochistan to link the Central Asian energy oil and gas pipelines with Gwadar.

    i Delink Pakistan and Iran by carving out Balochistan and obviate the Iran-Pakistan energy/gas pipelines.

    i Establish US military presence in Balochistan for upcoming US-Israeli war against Iran.

    i Block Russia-Pak cooperation with Gazprom (Russian Gas Company) reaching Gwadar.

    i Balochistan and Kurdistan to be artificially created to have imperialist bases in the heartland of Islam.

    i ‘Independent Balochistan’ - a prelude for Kurdistan to break away from Turkey; separate Xinjiang and Tibet from China; Siberia from Russia; and separate Makkah and Madinah from Saudi Arabia.

    i US military presence in Gwadar to control the Gulf. To use the port as an alternative for USA’s 5th fleet based in Bahrain or another fleet if brought near the Gulf.

    i Use Gwadar as a military base for intervention in the Saudi Peninsula.

    The rationale of these ill-intentioned pseudo thinkers is absolutely absurd. According to them, since the Pakistani elite is exploiting Balochistan, so it should be balkanised. Those who believe that Balochistan should not be a part of Pakistan are geopolitical imbeciles. Indeed, the propagandists making these claims are clueless about regional realities because:

    i Pakistan: It will fight a war, even a nuclear war of national survival to defend itself.

    i Iran: The Iranian Seistan is part of Balochistan, which the imperialists want to carve out. Therefore, Iran will fight a war in unison with Pakistan to defend Balochistan against the US threats.

    i Afghanistan: The Taliban are winning; the Americans are leaving. No Afghan - not even Karzai - will cede the Afghan territory to become ‘greater independent Balochistan’. Nor can landlocked Kabul take up fights with both Islamabad and Tehran.

    i Turkey: The Turks will support Pakistan and oppose independent Balochistan. Those who are plotting Balochistan also support Kurdistan to balkanise Turkey. Turkey will oppose Balochistan splitting by Nato, even if Nato is foolhardy to play the diabolical game of neocons.

    i Saudi Arabia: The Saudis, too, will support Pakistan and oppose the Balochistan movement.

    i India: It has been supporting the destabilisation of Balochistan and will continue to do so. But for India to overtly support Balochistan can lead to a nuclear war with Pakistan. Besides this can also trigger freedom movements in Kashmir, Khalistan, Assam, Tamil Nadu and a dozen other places. Playing the US-Israel game will spoil its relations with Iran, Russia and China.

    i China: It will support Pakistan. USA’s aim in Balochistan is to block China from Gwadar. Balochistan today, Xinjiang tomorrow! China’s defence begins from Pakistan.

    i Russia: It is Pakistan’s new friend. Besides, the Pak-Iran link is supported by Moscow.

    So, the geopolitics of the region negates any viability of an independent Balochistan. In addition, anti-Americanism in Pakistan has a complex dynamic. The US meddling in Balochistan will not create an ‘independent Balochistan’, but will initiate a war, perhaps, leading to World War III.

    The situation in Balochistan certainly demands immediate attention. Out of 150 Baloch tribes three major ones Marris, Bugtis, and Mengals have had problems or are in conflict. The issue of Bugtis is greatly linked to the murder of Nawab Akbar Bugti. A fair trial of those responsible is their demand. The Mengals can be communicated with. Some of the Marris leaders are more adamant and would need to be worked on. Pakistan needs to accommodate most of the Balochistan demands and satisfy the people, while ensuring its national interests. Half the demography of Balochistan which is Pakhtun are patriotic like the great majority of Baloch.

    Bugti’s killing by Musharraf led to the present Balochistan crisis. The army or the ISI is not responsible. USA and India did not oppose Musharraf’s actions in Balochistan. This was a US-India baited gambit (to lure Musharraf into a crackdown and create turmoil for instigating independent Balochistan). Musharraf was praised by Washington and assured by Delhi of its non-involvement in Balochistan, luring him into the mess Pakistan faces today in the province. For all this time a covert war was being waged for claiming independence of Balochistan. During this period a worldwide network was established. This became overt in February 2012 as war with Iran is near centre stage in 2012. However, those who are planning war against Pakistan must be told that the choice is between peace and total war; indeed, the country will be defended at any price!

    The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army and is the author of the book Gwadar on the Global Chessboard.


    Ron Paul – The American for Real Change
    Nadir Mir
    Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”
    Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics
    The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.

    Geopolitics of Peace is an Endeavour by Nadir Mir

    Ron Paul, among Republican Party Candidates for 2012 US Presidential elections, is the American for real change. Reminding the world of virtues which had made USA a model for the world in yesteryears. Like many Great Americans, he is honest, brave, smart, honourable, generous and futuristic. Ron Paul a suave politician reminds folks of the American Revolutionary Spirit of 1776. Of the courage to stand up for truth, challenging conventional wisdom and chiseling a pragmatic road map for the future.
     Cognizant of the fact that Neo-con led decade of 2000-2010 had ruined America, he advocates Neo atonement and redemption. As a patriotic American, he knows the good hearted people of USA were again being led astray by the pied pipers cabal of Globalists, Military-Industrial Complex and Neo- con remnants. This time the issue is more serious than declining at home and being over stretched abroad. If the War Lobby-cum Globalists have their way, they may drive USA into a World War (as a Ron Paul supporter, Benton exclaimed. ‘We need another armed conflict, like we need a hole in the head!)
    Attacking Iran or Pakistan will be crossing the Rubicon. Putin had even earlier reportedly told his Generals ‘Prepare for Armageddon!’ Now after alleged interference from the west in Russian Politics has been termed as ‘an act of war’ by some Moscow Quarters (Imagine the mood in the Kremlin). The Chinese Navy was recently put on high alert by Beijing. Russia – China had coordinated their stance on Syria, to block the NATO onslaught. War beyond Syria, into Iran and Pakistan will spiral out of control regional war – Nuclear World War.
    All this is taken into account by Ron Paul’s Geopolitical vision. He vehemently believes that the world does not need more wars. He also bravely accepts that one of the Nations which need rebuilding is called ‘United States of America’. His foreign policy is not simply isolationism, but of reducing Washington’s’ insatiable appetite as the Global Police Cop. He understands like many smart Americans do that USA can lead the world through its soft power, without recourse to hard power, or aggressive wars. (No matter how they are sugar coated, or made palatable on the basis of ‘American Exceptionalism or more recently ‘Terrorism Lexicon’)
    Ron Paul and his supporters understand that even after building one aircraft carrier, the Chinese will face eleven US Carriers in the oceans (and bigger ones of Carl Wilson, class). They also remember that America won the decisive naval Battle of Midway, Second World War, with two aircraft carriers while sinking four Japanese Carriers, turning the tide in the Pacific. Even if Iran, builds ten nuclear bombs, Israel has hundreds and America can deploy thousands of nukes. Besides in high- hyper tech war no one match USA. No State Actor can hope to get away, after attacking America. The only Non State Actor Al-Qaeda is on the sights of US military power since a decade for this attempt. With two oceans for safety on the flanks, soft neighbours in the North and South, the USA has no one to fear- Except Itself. (Going overboard in its endless foreign wars, amidst a dwindling economy at home)
    Ron Paul’s stance is based on courage and hope, not ‘instigated fear’. Historically USA would never have become such a great Nation without these virtues. From the ‘May Flower sailing to New England, the Thirteen Colonies seeking Independence, Boston Tea party, Lexington, Bunker hill, the star spangled banner, till the fall of Yorktown, the declaration of Independence was all about  American Courage and Hope.
    With fluctuations, this continued till the Cold War. Ironically after American Victory in the Cold War (termed by Francis Fukuyama as ‘End of History’) the ‘Fear Factor’ set in. Paul Kennedy had termed USA as a declining power (rise and fall are natural, as no nation can keep rising for ever). Still fear of America’s decline, or greed for foreign conquests, (corporate led) has made the ‘fear factor’ predominant in US Politics – Geopolitics. The last decade saw the ‘terrorist fear’ (exploited by Neo-Cons) taken to extreme. Obviously USA had to be made safe from all forms of foreign attacks, by Washington, but without losing balance (In the event the Americans lost their civil liberties, economic progress and are not winning their wars either)
     As the American people (despite their diligence) face economic deprivation, the Germans in Europe, and Chinese in Asia are laughing all the way to their banks. The Germans and Chinese are role models of prosperity, (even as Turkey and Brazil join the new rich group). While the Americans are cursed globally for everything which goes wrong! (Due to America’s overextended Global Cop Role, it would be poorer at home and demonized abroad)
    Great Americans who have been traditionally smart and futuristic know this is the wrong road. Time to change track! America needs fresh thinking –A New Narrative.
    Ron Paul’s’ vision outlines a new America. The Ron Paul philosophy encompasses.
    ·         Bringing US troops back home from Iraq, Afghan Wars, rather than starting new wars.
    ·         Solving the Iran issue by means other than war.
    ·         Building American Economy and reducing national debt.
    ·         A relatively non interventionist stance in over all US foreign policy.
    ·         Improving the lives of Americans at home and raising their prestige abroad. And a lot more!
    (Many US war veterans having seen protracted and futile war at close quarters support Ron Paul) The Ron Paul theme is current, and populist. A radical thinker, albeit too radical for Republican tastes. Before Ron Paul contests the Democratic Party and President Obama, he has to match his own party mates. His concept for America is sound, the question –‘Is USA prepared for him’? Is the Ron Paul idea whose time has come? Or is he ahead of his times! Historically the Americans were revolutionaries in infancy, then turned conservative and now may see revolutionary cycle again.
     After the First World War, the Americans became isolationists again! Isolation in American parlance however today has an entirely different context. Post First World War, when US GIs returned home it was 1919-1920 onwards. Today almost nine decades later a global world is an economically integrated world. It is US Geo-strategy which needs to be truncated and re chiseled not Geo-economics. America’s economic relations with Germany or China and the rest of the world would grow and not be curtailed, by saying goodbye to new, unwanted wars. A new era of peace and prosperity can be ushered. America can grow rich, strong and prestigious even without the military- industrial complex going in overdrive! That is the new idea!
    Ironically Ron Paul is feared by fellow Republicans and assailed by opposing Democrats. Both the Elephant and the Donkey (the two party symbols need a new rider. The American people have to decide who that will be) Ironically it is already being said that US Presidential Election 2012 is boring, routine and uninspiring except for Ron Paul (of course this may not be true).
    In the mean while, new radical thinking against the elite, or unbridled capitalism has also seeped in. ’Occupy Wall Street, LA’ etc though it still a minority. Will this become a tidal wave? Meanwhile US elections-politics is mostly conservative. As one foreign resident of USA said – ‘If they do not elect Ron Paul then God help America!’
    If Ron Paul is elected president, a change towards peace and prosperity for USA and the world is expected. At least Third World War, towards which the world is edging, would most likely be averted. If the Republicans or Americans do not elect Ron Paul, he would still be credited with having tried his ideas for peace and prosperity.
     Many great Americans did not become the President of the United States, but they stands tall, their stature undiminished. Ron Paul may then be one of them!

    Peace in Afghanistan and the Good American

    Nadir Mir

    Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”

    Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics

    The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.

    Geopolitics of Peace is an Endeavour by Nadir Mir

    The world needs peace in Afghanistan (which of course starts with a US troop withdrawal). America’s Vice President Joe Biden recently stated – “The Taliban per se is not the enemy” .This is a step towards peace, which should be welcomed by everybody. The ‘Good American’ Vice President Joe Biden has always been known for his upright character and forthright views. Even after 9/11, during Bush Administration, and Dick Cheney’s blustering, Joe Biden voiced his independent views. Among America’s elderly statesmen, he hopefully understands Afghanistan’s need for Peace. The World also needs to hear some Common Sense if not Geopolitical Sense from others in Washington!

    Ironically Biden’s statement was assailed from a number of quarters within USA. The Washington Post was skeptical, others were critical.’ Biden Does It Again’ was Fox News. (Anyone who speaks the truth or logic or preaches peace is to be ridiculed by American Globalist Media, even if it is Vice President of USA!) War lovers termed it as” Biden’s Jaw Dropping Gaffe”. The Times of India was perplexed by Biden’s Olive Branch to Taliban! (Delhi had earlier absurdly convinced itself of Washington’s’ perpetual animosity for Taliban and was now amazed by its perfidy. Delhi has yet to learn Real Politik American Style!). US official sources soon clarified the contents implying Biden meant something else, even as Jay Carney defended it from the White House! Karzai from Kabul welcomed Bidens’ pragmatic statement, clarifying the need for ending the feud with Taliban.

    The fact of the matter is that if Taliban are to be constantly demonized (A propaganda requirement after 9/11) and are undefeated, how does US Army withdraw from Kabul? (And also save face) If American troops do not leave (they cannot win anyway, even if they do not lose Dien Bien Phu fashion) the war gets protracted. As long as US troops remain, the Talibans resist. (The rest of NATO European Troops do not even count in Taliban Calculations) Not only Afghanistan is tragically destroyed by war (First Soviets now Americans) but Pakistan is destabilized. US- Pakistan relations have nosedived from ‘unstinted support’ to going conflictual. With Iran ‘A Point Of No Return’ according to the Atlantic and numerous other world views (Including this scribe’s ‘Next War Iran’ published in Pravda Ru.) The region is boiling!

    In Afghanistan the Strategic Grand Climactic (Turning point) has been reached. Washington’s choice is to relent or escalate. Relent in Afghanistan preferably by negotiated settlement with Taliban, and Pakistan on board. The war weary American Public, with over 70% people want US troops pull out from Afghanistan. (America’s longest War in history). In Germany over 80% Germans want their military involvement finished in Kabul. Culturally rich and peace loving Germans, living affluent lives have no reason to prolong an endless and meaningless conflict.

    Time in any case is against US – NATO. Not only does economic decline in USA and financial malaise in EU warrant an end to the Afghanistan War. The element of time is on the side of the Taliban. As Russian Asurenipal reminded the quote of stoic mountain warriors (Of Afghanistan) –addressing NATO –‘You have the Watches, We have the Time!

    Vice President Joe Biden was right that the Taliban were not the enemy. Then the good people of USA would ask – why are we fighting the Taliban, if it is not the enemy?                                                                            The simple answer – Time for Geopolitics of Peace. A negotiated Peace Agreement in Kabul to which Pakistan is a party and the Indians are not invited!

    America’s soldiers should come home. Young American boys and girls should not die or be maimed anymore, in the treacherous mountains of Afghanistan. Nor Kill innocent Afghans or Pakistanis. The War has gone long enough. Are Ten Years not enough to prove that the American Soldiers are brave? How much more revenge does US seek for 9/11? But it’s also proven that the Taliban are even more tough and full of valour. Honouring a brave enemy is no dishonour (even if the Age of Chivalry is past –but not dead).

    To end the confusion, who is America’s enemy? Those who attack America and those who drag USA into senseless - useless wars. After Osama Bin Laden’s killing by American Forces, 50-100 Al Qaeda operatives are estimated by US forces in Afghanistan and they are already decimated in Pakistan. Once the American Forces leave, peace will return, or strife will reduce in Afghanistan.

    Now the news Mullah Omer’s name has been removed from the terrorist (FBI) list is even more welcome. The Afghan Taliban are heroic, frugal warriors, fighting a War of National Liberation (In their own perception). Departing US Troops have nothing to fear from the honourable Taliban. In any event after a decade long horrific war the Taliban also need peace. Yet the Globalists are disappointed. The liberal puppets of the region are pissing in their pants (due to indicators of US – Taliban peace prospects) and so called Regional Aspirant Delhi will learn an unforgettable lesson, if it tries to invade Afghanistan.

    Vice President Joe Biden is now a Good American! Good Americans are those who are willing to move in the direction of peace. Bad Americans –Neocons, Globalists etc want to again conquer the world (and ruin USA!)The Good Afghans want peace, and exit of foreign forces (a prerequisite for peace). Good Taliban are basically freedom fighters, living their own lives, as per time honoured culture and traditions. Good Pakistanis want freedom from their own treacherous and corrupt elite and withdrawal of US forces from Pakistan and Afghanistan. (Good Pakistanis do not want extremism in any form) Peace at home, peace abroad. Bad Afghans and Bad Pakistanis are those who support foreign wars for their own petty ends. (A minority of liberal puppets living on alien dole) It is time for Geopolitics of Peace. Status quo or stalemate is past. The choice is US Exit Afghanistan for Peace or a Larger Regional War. The American Choice-leave Afghanistan now or lose both Pakistan and Afghanistan later. Only the demented (Indian funded) would choose the latter!

    All sane, smart men and women would opt for Global Peace. The world needs Good Americans who withdraw all US Forces from Afghanistan, to usher an era of peace followed by prosperity. Peace in Afghanistan and Good Americans are now synonyms!

    (Geopolitics of Peace is an endeavour by Nadir Mir)

    Geopolitics of Confusion
    Nadir Mir
    Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”
    Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics
    The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.

                              (Geopolitics of Confusion has been published in Pravda ru, Windows to Russia and Opinion Maker)

     US – NATO attack on Pakistan
    US – NATO attacked a non NATO Ally Pakistan!
    The attack was unprovoked, wanton, cowardly and ruthless. It was open aggression and violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty. US – NATO aggression was condemned or Pakistan received support and sympathy from China, Russia, Iran, OIC (Saudi Arabia) – Turkey. Even UK expressed regrets; France supports an inquiry into the issue. Germany was obviously disappointed by Pakistan’s cancellation of participation at Bonn Conference
    US filled with hubris even refused to apologize, while Delhi was gloating over the death of Pakistani Soldiers and its predicament. The Pakistani Nation is livid with rage and united to defend Pakistan. The American sanctioned attack (no other power on the planet can dare to attack Pakistan at its own) is radicalizing Pakistan. The beleaguered (mini minority) corrupt and treacherous elite in Pakistan are finding excuses to explain American aggression.

    The time has come to end the Geopolitics of Confusion!

    Firstly why was this aggression launched?
    A long list of answers can be compiled, some are presented here:
    ·         A strategy of deflection to keep away from the ‘Memo’.
    ·         Gunship raid, attack (live) rehearsal – against Pakistan’s nuclear sites. (Helicopters at night used even earlier for ‘snatch operations’ like the Abbotabad Raid).
    ·         Daily Beast article which claims this as ‘Obama’s Foreign Policy Doctrine’ and terms it as ‘Off Shore Balancing’ (with money and bravado in short supply, avoid land battle. Use of heliborne/drone/air power for foreign policy ends of USA).
    ·         Condition Pakistan to stay prostrate during expected ‘war against Iran’ by Israel / US (urgency of expected  strike on Persia)
    ·         Intimidate Pakistan before Bonn Conference. (Absurd but irrational Globalists can do anything)
    ·         Pakistan’s (offensive) containment. Degrade, disgrace Pakistan Army and drive a wedge in the Pakistani Nation. (The opposite effects have been achieved. The Pakistani Nation stands united and supports the Army vehemently)
    Secondly who is with and against Pakistan?
    With Pakistan stand its brave plus patriotic Armed Forces, and the nationalistically motivated people of Pakistan. The soldiers and masses stand together against foreign threats. Externally to varying – degrees Pakistan is supported by China – Russia – Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia – OIC. Almost the entire region is against US sponsored wars, or longevity for its military presence. The Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan are already in a state of war with USA. Most of the world respects Pakistan (Pakistan’s nomination to Security Council seat was testament). India is of course completely untrustworthy. It can always launch ‘Cold Start’ offensive on any pretext in harmony with US MILITARY STRIKE – against Pakistan. (In December a major Indian Army Exercise is underway in the deserts against Pakistan). Still the regional Geopolitics would have to be viewed by Delhi, more than Pakistan’s offer of MFN.
    Russian support can prove a game changer for Pakistan. It would tilt the scales, Russia – China and not only China supporting Pakistan. Deterring USA to an extent, while inhibiting India from joining US for an attack on Pakistan. (Besides Pakistan’s conventional forces and nuclear deterrent – tactical weapons included, could keep India at bay)
    The British even as America’s most Allied Ally are not openly clashing with Pakistan. (Both due to British Policy and British vulnerability at home. More so, the fate of the British Embassy in Tehran clearly indicates an Iranian – British clash). In fact Pakistan’s relations with the British, French and Germans (major NATO members) have been good. They could even be better if NATO withdraws from Afghanistan. (There would be little to have friction on). Pakistan – German friendship should improve further.  Germany is the true and future leader of Europe and respected by Pakistanis.

    Now the question who is against Pakistan?
    A brutally candid answer is:
    Firstly, Pakistan’s own corrupt, treacherous and incompetent elite, a mini minority which wants to keep robbing and exploiting the Pakistani Nation. They seek solace and work for foreign powers (USA – India). The treacherous elite would sell the Motherland for a song. They want to serve as slave overseers for a shackled Nation. Selling it to the first bidder. Yesterday it was USA alone but now it is USA – India. This is the Pakistan Corruption – Treachery Nexus, who are more loyal to Washington – Delhi than many Americans and Indians and of course Anti Pakistan. (After all in USA, Americans are challenging the system – Occupy Wall Street, LA etc or Anna Hazara ‘Anti corruption Drive’ in India)
    Secondly the cabal of America’s Globalists, military – industrial complex, left over Neo cons who still want to conquer the world. (Despite being chastened in Iraq – Afghanistan). On the contrary, the good hearted, charity giving and amiable people of America many of whom are now questioning this perpetual war quest. They seek jobs and living at home rather than wars abroad! The White House and State Department are confused in the Geopolitical labyrinth of Afghanistan.
    The war lovers of course love war. They want to continue the war in Afghanistan and start new ones in Iran – Pakistan! (Not divining that the combined Geopolitical space of Afghanistan – Pakistan – Iran – Iraq will prove a Giant Black hole (even for Uncle Sam).
    Thirdly, Delhi the serpent, is always bidding its time to strike Pakistan. Still the complex and multi faceted (Delhi does not want to lose Tehran / Moscow affinity) regional Geopolitics weighs heavy on Indian minds. As does the fear of nuclear holocaust from a Pakistani response.
    Veteran Indian Diplomat MK Bhadrakumar had predicted a ‘Persian Response’ by Pakistan for this attack, (asymmetrical plus Strategic Defiance). Simon Tisdall warning in ‘Pakistan has had enough’ had opinioned that an Iranian type Revolution in Pakistan could be one outcome in future.
    ‘A hot flash in the Cold War with Pakistan’ is how the Atlantic titled its article. The only people who still think in terms of an alliance in the Global War on terror are Pakistan’s dimwitted, thieving, treacherous elite! The rest of the world is quite clear on the real issues, which are:

    ·         Pakistan’s Denuclearization (through ‘Memo  of Treachery’ or American Geo strategy)
    ·         America’s partial withdrawal from Afghanistan
    From the MemoGate to Gunship attack etc, are all tactics of one supreme over arching strategy to denuke Pakistan. (War hawks controlled, Indian influenced).
    Washington wants to keep its ‘Strike or Nuclear Grab Option’ open against Pakistan (before or after war with Iran). For this herculean task there are three pre requisites.

    ·         Treacherous elite support within Pakistan. (Memo and related kind)
    ·         Prepositioning, maintaining secret – clandestine forces, Special Forces in Pakistan in disguise.  (To act as path finders, initial strike force)
    ·         Afghanistan Bases (operations for denuking strike)

    Without these three pre requisites any Strategic Denuclearization Scenario remains fiction and outside the realm of feasibility. (Any attempt against Pakistan’s nuclear sites will have catastrophic consequences any way).
    Strategic logic dictates that all three pre requisites (for denuclearization attempt) be denied to foreign forces.

    ·         The treacherous elite have to be marginalized.
    ·         Secretly positioned clandestine foreign forces eliminated or expelled.
    ·         Afghan Bases Denied. (Complete pull out of all foreign forces from Afghanistan has to be Pakistan’s avowed policy)
    Besides Pakistan’s brave soldiers, the Nation stands united. China, Russia and Iran at the very least seek Pakistan’s strategic autonomy from NATO. EU – NATO can be divided more so with Turkish support. British are cautious, French non hostile, Germans Peace Seeking. In America, the Afghan war has divided them, even as they unite for the war against Iran.
    Pakistan should lobby for:
    ·         An immediate ceasefire in Afghanistan and Pakistan – Afghanistan border.
    ·         The political face of Taliban for talks.
    ·         Early resolution of Baluch problem, where Empire (US – NATO) will strike back in Pakistan. (The next front being attacked by western – Indian Geo-strategy – Charter of Freedom for Baluchistan etc)
    ·         Complete and early withdrawal of all US – NATO forces from Afghanistan and Pakistan. (Disagree to any stay behind NATO forces in Afghanistan).
    ·         Moscow – Islamabad synergism can prove a game changer. Supply routes to NATO in Afghanistan should be jointly blocked by Pakistan and Russia as part of a Peace Policy.
    (‘Next War – Iran’ written by this scribe for Opinion Maker has been published by Pravda Ru and Windows to Russia. A view in Moscow is that Pakistan and Russia can together choke NATO in Afghanistan!)
    ·         Pakistan needs to muster more tangible support from China, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey on Afghanistan while keeping it cool with India for the present (through diplomacy – deterrence).
    The problem in Afghanistan is very simple.
    The Americans lost the war, but do not want to admit it.

    There is still time for them to declare victory and go home today. Tomorrow may be a different day!

    Geopolitics of Peace
    Nadir Mir
    Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”
    Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics
    The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.

    Next War – Iran
    The Geopolitics of the times may indicate that the next war is Iran.  Although Pakistan being an established nuclear power would logically be higher on the scales of denuking agenda for so called globalists. Still Geopolitical logic dictates otherwise.

    In Iran’s case, the American agenda is to prevent it from going nuclear. (Something which Pakistan achieved over quarter of a century ago – Enriched Uranium) The recent IAEA accusative report, Israel’s brinkmanship (you do it or we do it), American election fervour (attacking Iran is an election issue for 2012, at least for Mitt Romney Republican Presidential candidate), conservative Arab animosity for Revolutionary Iran (in future nuclear armed), Iran’s energy linkage to Russia – China, Iran’s defiance of USA plus western world, and finally the fear or perception of Tehran crossing the nuclear Rubicon combine for ‘Strike on Iran’.

    The most likely version is an air and missile strikes or campaign (depending how the war progresses). Still a limited invasion cannot be ruled out (US has freed most of its forces from Iraq for the purpose).

    PM Benjamin Netanyahu, National security advisor Uzi Arad and Defence Minister Ehud Barak plus numerous Israeli leaders of late are cajoling for a strike on Iran. American friends have joined the Iran demonization campaign. For nearly a decade, this crying wolf – Iran going nuclear – or need to strike has been going on. This time it looks for real. The problem is both Israel and Iran are supremely confident and itching to fight.

    In one scenario, Israeli air force (100 F15E, F16IS, F16cs), plus land based missiles (jhericos) and two Dolphin submarines (firing cruise missiles) off Iran’s coast initiate the first blow. This may be a one – two blow i.e., missile strikes preceding or following the air strikes. Destroying as much as possible of Iranian nuclear projects (Natanz, Esfahan, Busher etc) with bombs and missiles. Tehran’s retaliation with missiles plus Hezbollah, Hamas rockets are absorbed by Israel. Threatening to up the ante (Nuke Iran) Tel Aviv (evoking paranoia of a Second Holocaust) drags USA into the war, to use its larger military muscle. The Iranians fight back (Iran will respond with full force has already been said by Ayatollah Ali Khameni). Though the high intensity war may fizzle out in weeks or months, a low intensity war may continue for years. The Arab – Islamic world would be inflamed, the western world divided. War drags on – at least the asymmetrical part is protracted.     
    ‘The Point of No Return’ an article by the Atlantic makes clear the high probability of war with Iran. The Israelis are evasive on even if they would inform Washington about such a strike. An Israeli strike appears imminent now or in spring 2012 (winter is not considered ideal for such operations).

    In fact the initial strategic moves have been initiated on the Middle East Geopolitical Chessboard. NATO is planning to intervene to achieve regime change in Syria. This is aimed at depriving Iran of its chief ally Syria and somewhat suffocating the Geopolitical space available to Hezbollah and Hamas. After Syria and Iran’s (claimed by US / NATO) isolation, the stage will be set for war on Iran initiated by Israel, US or jointly. Tehran’s revolutionary fervour which engulfed the British Embassy and reports of Libyan (NATO trained) fighters being shipped to fight against the Damascus Regime and a lot more are indicators of the gathering Great Storm.   

    Despite an election year if USA strikes Iran, it would obviously be a heavier punch than Israel. More so, it may not be limited to Iran’s nuclear establishment, but also aim at the Revolutionary Guards, military industrial – economic complex, ports, and communication infrastructure. In essence ‘Cave Age or Scorched Earth’. According to David Rothkopf (author of Super Class), it would be folly to assume President Obama cannot strike Iran due to an election year. By the same token, many Americans and Europeans are against an attack on Iran.

    The British are unsure, the French hesitant, Germans Anti aggression, the Russians (Putin led) against an attack, the Chinese peace loving, even India and Pakistan may have similar views – (no attack on Iran). The world yearns for peace, but the Israeli leaders are preparing (even if the Israeli nation is divided on the issue). Good Americans want jobs at home not conflict abroad – but the war lobby wants war.

    Attack on Iran plans have been on hold since President Bush era. Now in 2012, US Presidential campaign ‘most Republican Candidates’ except Ron Paul are for ‘bombing Iran’.

    Interestingly America’s ex defenders Mr. Robert Gates, Admiral Mike Mullen, General Zinni etc have serious reservations on the ‘Persian Misadventure’. Even the present Defence Secretary Panetta (despite europhia of Bin Laden killing)’warned of unintended consequences!

    Even more ironically the Israeli nation is divided by half on the subject. (After all the expected Iranian riposte of missiles, rockets and asymmetrical attacks is going to first of all target Israel). As a smart Israeli went to the extent of saying that if America was so worried about a ‘Second Holocaust’ it might fight Iran itself (without Israeli involvement). The Israeli Defence Forces even while confident are apprehensive and rightly so!

    Still wise people in Europe, America and elsewhere are asking pertinent questions. A single Israeli Air strike will not be sufficient to totally destroy the Iranian nuclear projects, (delay it by 2 to 3 years), what next? If the US does not bomb Iran, what is the war termination strategy? Will it become a regional war by design or default? Will it escalate to nuclear realm?
    What will be the impact on the Arab spring and Middle East? (Probably go hyper Anti Israel – Anti American!)

    The reality is, there are no good answers. What if radioactivity due to Israel – US bombing reaches Nuclear Armed Pakistan and India? (Of course the Pakistani elite have no time for such issues. They are uninitiated into Pakistani Geopolitical issues, what to ponder about Iran?)

    Unfortunately the fact is that an attack on Iran will adversely affect Pakistan in many ways. Pakistan will be surrounded by hostile India, unstable Afghanistan and warring Iran. Radioactivity leaks due to bombing may reach Pakistan! (Even handling Dengue Mosquitoes has been an uphill task). Inflame Shias, bring Iranian refugees, disrupt gas, oil import and bring Pakistan closer to the denuking agenda!

    Reportedly the Russian PM Putin when recently briefed on emerging Geopolitics and probability of war told his generals, ‘Prepare for Armageddon’!
    Putin – a great visionary leader is absolutely right. US – NATO attack on Iran would unleash ‘the hounds of hell’ not only for the victim state but the region around, the world at large and the attackers themselves!

    The only viable solution in Global interest is ‘Geopolitics of Peace’. A comprehensive peace settlement from Mediterranean Sea to the Gulf to include Israel – Palestine, Israel – Iran issues. Plus pull out of all foreign troops from Afghanistan and Iraq. The need for denuking wars would stand obviated. The specter of hell on earth (for everybody) exorcised!

    The Memo of Treachery
    Nadir Mir
    Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”
    Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics
    The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.

    The ‘Memo of Treachery’ has been considerably unveiled. Actually it is no great mystery. This is in fact the corruption, transfer wealth abroad – get foreign support – stay in power or acquire more power – money complex in action. Pakistani liberals (puppets) living abroad, posing as the ‘face of Pakistan’ the linchpin for this Faustian bargain. (Between Pakistani traitors and alien supporters).
    It is certainly not about civilian control over the military establishment (which is a good thing). It is about corrupt, self serving elite, who seek foreign support to keep robbing the people of Pakistan. (Betraying Pakistanis is not an issue, but part of the agenda).
    Without confusing the issue, the ‘Memo’ sent by some Pakistanis (with bank accounts, assets and residence abroad) sought foreign (Uncle Sam’s) support which by simple connotation meant:
    §  Weaken Pakistan’s National Security by cutting ISI – Army down to size.
    §  Invite US military forces in Pakistan for partial occupation (as if drones were not enough)
    §  Exposing, denuding and ultimately compromising Pakistan’s nuclear projects. (Depriving Pakistan of its deterrent)
    §  Handing over Pakistanis demanded by India. (Today militants, tomorrow hijab wearing women! Any one Delhi considers not friendly or not in love with Indian’s inequality based Brahman Order)
    §  Practically advocating steps leading to Pakistani Nation’s eventual and complete enslavement to US Geopolitical diktat and Indian over lordship plus much worse. . . . 
     All that was asked by the authors of the treacherous memo was to be in power in Pakistan. (Along with their foreign based stolen wealth and to continue duping the innocent people of Pakistan forever).
    Now even Admiral Mike Mullen (recipient of the memo) has recollected, after initial denial (a memory loss, apparently from too much work!) And confirmed the memo was sent by Pakistanis (friends of USA)
    Hussain Haqqani the Pakistan Ambassador has obviously rejected Ijaz Mansoor, a Pakistani businessman, making this claim about the ‘Memo’. In any event Hussain Haqqani is better known as ‘America’s Ambassador for Pakistan in Washington’.
    Reportedly and predictably Hussain Haqqani initially refused to return to Pakistan (gaining time to lobby in USA) and threatened to seek asylum in USA but later retraced. With an Ambassador like this who needs enemies!
    In essence the ‘Memo’ is a clear case of treachery to the state of Pakistan. Articles in The News by Shaheen Sehbai and Muhammad Malick -- ‘The Treasonous Memo’ and from Ansar Abbasi – HH resignation alone will not be enough’ are timely, eye opening and riveting.
    A complete, impartial inquiry by the Supreme Court would be in order. Hussain Haqqani’s resignation is not enough. He should be tried for treason in a fair trial. If found guilty he should be dealt under the law. (It was Hussain Haqqani who reportedly told the Americans, Pakistanis were like carpet merchants on price haggling issues!)
    Not carpet merchants but Pakistanis are a proud, patriotic, peace loving, independence minded nation. (Except for a tiny, mini minority of self serving, thieving, foreign supported elite).
    The nefarious characters involved in the plot to weaken ISI, dilute the army, invite American troops into Pakistani homes, compromise nuclear arsenal, accept every Indian demand and the long list of crimes of infamy are traitors of the worst order.
     If they are not traitors then what is treachery to Pakistan? This is not about a clash between liberal puppets, pro western in outlook or radical extremists, fundamentalists. (That narrative is old – obsolete and boring). It is about the right of Pakistani Nation to live in peace and freedom, with security, prosperity and honour. An unfettered Nation – master of its own destiny!
    Without being sold to the first bidder, invaded by America, threatened by India and betrayed by its own corrupt and treacherous elite. The time has come to squeeze the space on traitors of all hues. If Islamabad – Rawalpindi cannot deal with a ‘Rogue Ambassador’, what can it do?
    A fair trial but heads must roll (literally). If those who betray Pakistan are not dealt today, it would be tragic.
    But they will inevitably face justice tomorrow by the Pakistan Revolution!

    Interview – Nida –e—Millat


    How US can improve its image in Pakistan?
    Regardless of US, Pakistan remaining allies or not, they were never destined to be enemies. Yet anti Americanism grows in Pakistan and frustration with Pakistan increases in America. Even though 'disenchanted allies' for long, the last decade, post 9/11 has resulted in a growing animosity. This is a result of American geopolitical naiveté, Pakistani wishfulness and Indian deceit creating an explosive brew. Yet there is a clear distinction between US and Pakistani global perceptions. US being a global albeit sole super power, has to worry about a long list of geopolitical rivals, allies, surrogates and fence sitters.
    Washington has to relate to Putin’s Russia, China's rise, the Middle East Arab Spring, Turkish growth and independence, Iran’s defiance, North Korean wild card antics, European economic gloom etc. Besides the mess American Neo Con policy resulted in at home and abroad.
    Pakistan's case is much simpler. Its geopolitical world is limited. Indian threat, Afghanistan issues and American relations are key subjects for now. Afghanistan the geopolitical square on the global chessboard for testing both! America’s stock in Pakistan has plunged to the lowest depth. (US / NATO attack on Pakistan is a turning point in the relationship). America needs Pakistan, while it is in Afghanistan. But Washington will need Islamabad even more later. Pakistan's geography is globally pivotal. (This scribe’s book 'Gwadar on the Global Chessboard' makes it quite evident). Pakistan’s demography will be the most numerous in the Muslim world. (3 billion Muslims by 2030). Pakistan may be the world's 3rd or 4th most populous state decades from now. According to Mr. Bruce Riedel (former CIA and advisor to President Obama) Pakistan will possess the world's 4th or 5th biggest nuclear arsenal in the next decade. The key question Americans  should address – how to improve its image in Pakistan?
    A few cardinal points to ponder are presented here:


    The only people who are duped by Fox TV, Neo Con plus Globalists Media etc are some gullible Americans. The rest of the world including Pakistanis are quite clear about these issues. Even if the majority of Pakistanis lack high end education, there is ample rustic wisdom in the Pakistani Nation. America’s constant reference to Pakhtoons, Baloch, Punjabis, Sindhis, Sunni, Shia etc, are seen as attempts to divide the Pakistani people. As is US patronage of dictator dispensation and elite, viewed as corrupt plus treacherous by many in Pakistan. Washington's investment in Pakistani liberals is also a complete waste as far as containing extremism is concerned. Pakistani Nationalists with moderate views are the best recipe for dealing with extremists of various hues. Pakistan's liberals are frequently and often correctly seen as puppets with self aggrandizing agendas. Many NGOS have been discredited due to American links. Even European or other western NGOS, organization have fallen in disrepute (for no fault of theirs) as being fronts and full filling US agenda.

    Bottom line: ‘Befriend the people of Pakistan'.


    Pakistani nukes though guarded by its military are the pride of the nation. In a country of corrupt elite, hungry and angry people, internal and external threats, the nukes are seen as deterrents, equalizers and symbols of national pride.
    Relentless American inspired propaganda against Pakistani nukes – missiles (even if contributed by India and others) is threatening, shocking and pride snatching for Pakistanis. Indo – US nuclear deal is nuclear apartheid for Pakistan. (Regardless of what Americans say about AQ khan’s affairs). Pakistani Nation would prefer nukes to be used if it ever faces – ‘use them or lose them scenario’.
    The average Pakistani knows that India does not have the capability or courage to attempt nuclear defanging of Pakistan. But the Gungho – cow boys might attempt it, resulting in a regional – global catastrophe.

    Bottom line: US should accept 'Nuclear Pakistan' and stop its tirade against it.

    Centre of Gravity

    Geopolitically speaking ISI – Pakistan military is the centre of gravity. Though over all historically speaking, it is the freedom spirit of the Pakistani Nation. A concerted campaign against ISI and Pakistan military, amounts to degrading its centre of gravity. (After ten years of Pakistani sacrifices in blood, treasury, infrastructure, national emotions in the so called global war on terror).

    Bottom line: US should abandon attempts to divide Pakistani Nation from ISI – Armed Forces and forgo demonizing them.


    Genocide in Kashmir by Indian Army has resulted in hundreds of thousands of Kashmiris killed, besides thousands of Kashmiri women raped. US intervention in Bosnia, Libya and numerous other places was for much less. Unresolved Kashmir is the core issue preventing peace in South Asia. By condoning Indian war crimes (2000 plus in unmarked graves recently identified in Indian held Kashmir), US is aggravating the problem.

    Bottom line: Help resolve the Kashmir issue 

    The majority of Pakistanis want peace in Afghanistan. Peace cannot prevail until foreign forces leave Afghanistan, whether by agreement or by quick exodus. As long as foreign forces remain, the Afghans will resist. It is not a question of Haqqanis involvement or anyone else for that matter but of US departure.

    Bottom line: US should relent and withdraw all its forces from Afghanistan. A negotiated peace agreement in Afghanistan involving Pakistan is the solution.

    A history of US betrayal haunts Pakistani minds. The current issue is not US walking away from Kabul but installing Indians before departure. As American drone strikes killing many innocents signify US hubris, entrenching Indians in Kabul would once again prove American betrayal. If Washington does this, it will lose the Pakistani nation’s confidence. Any US or US sponsored attempt, be it diplomatic or military against Pakistan’s nukes, would end Pakistani nation’s relations with USA forever. (And create a sea of radioactive hostility).

    So far the PERCEPTION of American strategy towards Pakistan has been:

    §  Patronize liberal puppet elite
    §  Divide Pakistani nation
    §  Demonize ISI, nuclear, military in Pakistan.
    §  Support the enemies of Pakistan to destabilize and encircle it.
    §  Aim to denuclearize and balkanize it.

    Obviously this has resulted in the lowest level of US – Pakistan relations in history. Going further down can best be summed up by the German philosopher’s famous quote.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Friedrich Nietzsche

    Geopolitics of Peace
    Nadir Mir
    Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”
    Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics
    The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.


    Confusion or Containment for Pakistan
     Mr. Bruce Riedel’s (ex CIA, advisor to US President) recent article was titled ‘Containment of Pakistan’. It would be more appropriate to title it as ‘Confusion or Containment for Pakistan’.
    Mr. Riedel had accused Pakistani Generals of Neo blasphemy – ‘not believing in an American victory in Afghanistan!’  The fact is that the majority of people in Afghanistan itself and neighbouring Pakistan, Iran, Central Asian states, China, Russia, besides the cultured people in Europe and rest of the world do not believe in an American victory. Smart Americans mercifully now in majority realize the Afghan War is lost. Thinkers and writers like Eric Margolis, Michael Scheuer and others have been saying it for years. Ironically the definition of US victory in Kabul keeps changing.
    The aim and end of war (primary principal of war) itself seems to be more slippery than an eel. So to use American parlance – ‘Mission Creep’. Since the war in Afghanistan is not won (nor can be won) blame the Haqqanis, Taliban, Pakistan and anybody else in the neighbourhood. Gore Vidal, a great American writer had aptly titled his book ‘Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace’.
    For ten years Pakistan was a non NATO Ally (rather not wanted Ally). Then it was graded as FreEnemy (friend – enemy) and now Mr. Bruce Riedel suggests containment of Pakistan (which is a policy option of dealing with enemies). To put the record straight, out of the trillion dollars war effort Pakistan received under $20 billion, while suffering $70 billion losses. Of course the pain, anguish, bereavement of nearly 40,000 casualties suffered by Pakistan cannot be measured in tangible term. Certainly they don’t matter to war mongers and their ilk. (Mouth pieces of the military – industrial – financial complex).
    Patriotic and smart Americans would not worry about ‘Waziristan’ but about ‘Wall Street, considering the economic malaise at home.  Conversely, the globalists want a new war with Pakistan and Iran (may be with Turkey, Saudi Arabia) followed by China and Russia. A strategy of deflection, to divert attention from problems at home. The capitalist cabal system is under attack! So when are these low paid, deprived, lower middle class, but good Americans going to be termed as anarchists, miscreants and terrorists? (May be inspired by OBL from his watery grave – if the American account was true!)
    Washington can try ‘Containment of Pakistan’ (with all the consequences) but containment of its military is simply absurd. The Pakistan military is a part of the nation like US military is a part of America. Obviously Washington – Delhi propaganda tries to drive a wedge between the Pakistani people and their soldiers. Civilian supremacy remains a supreme concept. The problem is that the corrupt elite in Pakistan which the Americans and the Indians want to pamper, don’t represent the nation. They are perceived as puppets. The American quest for a pliant Pakistan subservient to India (turning hostile to China) is rejected by the same civilians and common Pakistanis Mr. Riedel claims to be supporting.
    Furthermore, the notion that Pakistan Army is ambitious in terms of Afghanistan is preposterous! America led NATO has waged a decade long horrific war. Before US exit, hostile Indians want to entrench themselves in Kabul. (Even as a number of Indian Strike Corps mass on Pakistan’s borders under the garb of Winter Exercise 2011). Millions of Afghan refugees are sheltering in Pakistan. Kabul refuses to rectify the Durand Line agreement (not even fence it for security reasons). US / NATO troops concentrate on Waziristan borders, escalating drone strikes, threatening special operations, massing hardware for a mini ‘Shock and Awe’, posturing for an air campaign and the works! What is the Pakistan Army expected to do? It can’t be ‘contained and cooperative’ at the same time!
    Finally Mr. Riedel’s obsession with Pakistani nukes (or is he voicing some sinister agenda). Even if Mr. Riedel’s view of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal becoming 4th or 5th largest in the world is true, so what is the problem? The Pakistani population by some estimates may be also 4th – 5th largest in the world. What’s wrong with the 4th – 5th largest country having that big a nuclear arsenal?
    Containment of Pakistan may retard Pakistan but also forsake the geopolitics of peace. A cornered, bullied and threatened Pakistan will turn more nationalistic or militant. It will not become the dove which some misguided Americans funded by neo rich Indians desire. A geopolitical realignment may follow. Squeezed by Americans and Indians on two fronts, Pakistan will seek new allies – China, Iran, Saudi Arabia even Russia, while fraternizing with Turkey.
    A contained Pakistan on two fronts will lead to conflict. The Afghan War may extend to Pakistan, Iran and India. A vast war region, with peace prospects diminishing by the day. An all out war can spiral out of control, go nuclear, destroying the region and affecting the globe.  In case of a limited conflict, even if the Pakistan Military is bruised, beaten or humiliated in battle with American – Indian forces, (unlikely in a short span) the change in Pakistan will not be what Mr. Riedel had hoped for. In an emotionally charged, nationally hysterical public mood, pliant – puppets will not come to power. Radical minded revanchists could usurp power.
    Another possibility is a revolution sweeping Pakistan. If the Arab brothers can have a spring, good people of USA can ‘Occupy Wall Street’ and Ayatollahs in neighbouring Iran bring a revolution (1979), why not Pakistan?  A revolution would be the best thing for Pakistan. But the revolutionaries don’t take diktat from foreign powers – the historical legacy so far.
    The cause of peace can be best served, not by ‘Pakistan’s containment’ but by US Exit from Afghanistan through a ‘Negotiated, Peace Yielding Settlement’. This is the advice expected from sages, and geopoliticians who seek a peaceful and prosperous world for tomorrow.
    (Geopolitics of Peace is an endeavor by Nadir Mir)

    Saturday, May 28, 2011

    Published: May 28, 2011
    ‘US-India nexus bent upon splitting Balochistan’

    LAHORE – American and Indian interests in Gwadar coincide hugely, and both are bent upon splitting Balochistan in order to materialise its nefarious designs of truncating Pakistan and Iran, and denying Chinese access to the Port.
     This has been maintained by Brigadier (retd) Nadir Mir, who has written ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’, a comprehensive study of the Port, for which he claims to be ‘the architect’. He asserts that he was involved with the project since ‘providence brought him to the stage’.
    Mir believes that Gwadar has all possibilities of economic resurgence – ‘conduit for ailing economy of Pakistan’ – since it will act as a multiregional link up utilising Pakistan’s pivotal global geography, and connecting different regions like China with the Gulf, Afghanistan and the Indian Ocean. To him, after access given to China, Russia and the Central Asian Republics, Pakistan will be the direct beneficiary. “It is a twist of irony that today Pakistan is inviting Russia to warm waters after the former USSR’s attempt was foiled by us,” he mentioned, adding that the step could end Pakistan’s dependence on others since huge number of job, services, and assignments would be created, and Balochistan will become the richest province of all.
    Mir avers that there are three aspects of the Balochistan problem; first, injustice has resulted in grievances, and the Baloch are not getting fair deal. Secondly, the biggest blunder was committed by killing Nawab Akbar Bugti leading to further alienation. And foreign influence, especially of India and US, has further aggravated the situation. “Baluchistan will achieve independence. For New Delhi this opens a window of opportunity to ensure that Gwadar Port does not fall into the hand of the Chinese. In this there is synergy between the political objective of the Americans and the Indians,” he quoted Indian Defence Review, adding that India wanted to control the India Ocean and build new water navy to block the Chinese. “India has been planning and systematically building asymmetrical resistance in Balochistan having identified it as Pakistan’s Achilles’ heel. For this, India has been using West Asia, safe house and consulates in Afghanistan,” he mentioned.
    He observes that self-serving dispensation of Musharraf, under US pressure and to appease India, Gwadar was not given to the Chinese. About Indian interests in Balochistan, Mir is of the view that the Indian aim of destabilising Balochistan is manifold. First, quid pro quo for Pakistan’s alleged interference in the Indian-Held Kashmir, severing Balochistan and bringing it under its hegemony. Secondly, India wants denial of Gwadar’s control to Pakistan since from here our Army and Navy can navigate Indian shipping to stalk Indian plans since the Port is located at mouth of Gulf.
    Thirdly, Gwadar will bring Pakistan closer to the Gulf Arabs since the proximity will develop relations damaging to the Indian interests. “Despite all drama of Confidence Building Measures and dialogue, India sees Pakistan as zero-sum game.
    Our any strength is in disadvantage of India,” he opined, adding that American and Indian stakes coincide tremendously in Gwadar. While referring to Selig S. Harrison’s article ‘The Chinese Cozy Up to the Pakistanis’, Mir mentions that the US has been recommended to work for independence of Balochistan. “Think tanks and lobbies in the west, which if not for any other reason, blackmail Pakistan and talk about splitting Balochistan.
    Even in the neocon era of Bush Junior, new Middle East map had been shown independent Balochistan truncating Pakistan and Iran, while blocking the Chinese access to Gwadar,” he maintained.

    Geopolitics of Peace – 1 by Nadir Mir

    Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”
               Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics            
    The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.
    Geopolitics defined in multi ways is also ‘war politics among nations!’ When major powers clash, it leads to a great war. Ironically, the Clausewitzian notion of ‘war being the continuation of policy’ appears to be turned upside down. As detractors and peace advocates lament ‘policy is the continuation of war’! Again Clausewitz interjects ‘if policy is grand so will war be!’ The so called globalists (left over Neo Cons plus new converts) whisper aloud that they want another ‘Grand War’ as Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya were not enough. War with Iran was aborted or delayed and has left them heartbroken.
    So now Geopolitics is leaning towards a new rumored war against Pakistan and possibly Iran, as is being projected by some US think tanks. This includes the Huttington, ‘clash of civilization theorists’ plus propagandists and balkanists as appearing in the Huffington Post. Even Henry Kissinger the ever green American Geostrategic sage has talked of the ‘Balkans of the next World War’. This war if ever fought would be the most tragic – suicidal war. Without aim and end, with little to gain and a lot to lose by all. Besides peaceful alternatives are available. The futility of a ‘Great War’ or the ‘Reign of Total Chaos’ needs to be understood before understanding the value of peace. The world needs an era of peaceful prosperity; therefore let us dwell on the ‘Geopolitics of Peace’.
    First the global geopolitical environment must be grasped pragmatically. The Western World’s dominance in world affairs appears to be fading. At least the global economics balance is tilting away from the Western World. Much before 2020, China may rival the US economy. America today faces a serious debt default. If the US economy has slowed down the EU has its own ailments. In a nut shell, Western monopoly on global wealth stands challenged and rebuked by Eastern and other global economies. Strategically – militarily, Russia has made a comeback. Though there can be no invasion Soviet fashion, post Georgia, Moscow has drawn the Rubicon. Heart land Russia is confident, tactically cooperative yet strategically hostile to the West.
    By contrast US – NATO spent a decade chasing elusive, asymmetrical Islamic antagonists. Bogged down in protracted war, US – NATO, after facing resilient Taliban in Afghanistan and stoic Iraqi resistance, forayed into the Libyan adventure. US unilateral raid in Abbotabad, Pakistan has surged Anti Americanism. But Anti Americanism is not confined to Pakistan, but shared in Iran, Turkey, Arab World and a large global swathe.
    The Western world’s decline and rise of the rest (Farid Zakriya) has been further compounded by the Middle East revolutionary fervour. Yet US hyper war military remains pre-dominant, even as Robert Gates “avoid land war in Asia” warning must be heeded. American Geo Strategy is at a turning point. Pakistan – Iran – Afghanistan – Turkey – Saudi Arabian Peninsula – India are all Rim land players. A new contest may be starting. If the Bush Neocon era symbolized the –‘encirclement of Russia’, a new era may be on the horizon. The Obama Admistration cajoled by left over Neocons, friendly India, and persuasive Israelis is in a bind over Pakistan – China. The Geopolitical question is to relent or escalate? Yet Saudi Peninsula – North Africa also beacons Western – American attention. Post Osama period marks a defining moment for America. Logic, US economic malaise and war weary American public want the troops back home. The globalists want ‘perpetual war’. Peaceful deinduction is the logical step from Afghanistan. Still hubris, miscalculation, greed and ill advice can lead to a Cold War with China and Hot War in the region. Though the global environment may not replicate a century earlier but still Mark Twain was apt ‘history may not repeat but it does rhyme’.
    Historical perspective
    First World War (1914 to 1919)
    The final spark was the murder of Arch Duke Ferdinand. Yet the real cause of the ‘Great War’ was intra European Geopolitics. The power plays of many nations and empires but finally the rise of Germany and Britain’s avowed ‘policy of confronting rising powers on the continent’, all led to this catastrophic world event. The roots of the ‘Great War’ may have gone a hundred years to the fall of France after Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo in June 1815. The European War turned into a World War, bleeding the youth of Europe and destroying a generation. European empires fell, societal and revolutionary upheaval followed. Who gained, not the direct contestants. In any event, the seeds of the next World War were laid.
    Second World War (1939 to 1945)
    After twenty years of uneasy peace and turbulence in Europe, the Second World War began lasting from 1939 to 1945. The Treaty of Versailles and Hitler’s proclivity for brinkmanship were not the only reasons, for the Second World War. Hitler despite being the great propagandist did not have a flair for Geopolitics. The Western World was saved more due to Hitlerian blunders than its own prowess. In any event, from the ruins of Berlin and millions dead rose the Cold War.
    Cold War till 1991 and beyond
    Practically, the Soviet Union contest lasted from 1945 till 1991, leading to the demise of the Soviet Union and victory for Washington’s Alliance. Still Francis Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ was to prove illusionary and he was forced to rewrite ‘After the Neo Cons’. The Bush Administration and Neo Con Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq led to a global human disaster, besides Geopolitical remaking. Neither did it benefit the image or treasury of the United States to put it mildly. (Some claims figure in terms of 2,25000 total fatalities and $4 trillion direct and indirect expenditures – losses).
    1991 was in a sense the high point of American power and prestige. 1991 to 2011 is ironically again a twenty year gap like between First and Second World War. Another Great War or even Cold War does not make sense. This time there is no Hitler not even Saddam, Bin Laden or even Gaddafi as sparks to a larger conflagration. Merely, successful politicians! Like President Zardari and his friend President Karzai, both democratically elected!
    So where are the Balkans of Mr. Kissinger? Where does the new war start? And for what -- Afghanistan – Pakistan – Kashmir – Iran. Instead of US withdrawal from Afghanistan, it is being goaded in the ‘denuclearization scenarios’ of Pakistan by some US globalists and Indian extremists. Even as good hearted, charity giving Americans are seeking withdrawal of their forces to end Afghanistan’s endless war and its outrageous expenses. Any American attempt to denuclearize Pakistan would also extend to Iran, which is considered a greater existential threat by Israel. This would result in a larger war against Pakistan and Iran.
    Similarly, any attempt at Baluchistan balkanization would again involve Pakistan and Iran as the Iranian part is called Seastan bordering Pakistani Baluchistan. This would bring Pakistan and Iran in a holy alliance of national survival, something which American Geopolitics is loath off. Some extremists in India and so called globalists think tanks want Baluchistan Balkanized or Pakistan cut into four pieces. So Indian hegemony and American presence can share common borders in West Asia – South Asia! Apart from the moral and international, legal question of advocating cutting a country into pieces, this does not look like Geo strategy but ‘naive hallucinations’. Forced into a corner, Pakistan and Iran will defend themselves and probably combine their assets; it will lead to a radical realignment not suited to American Geopolitical interests. Those who are pushing the ‘war agenda’ are not Geo politicians or Geo strategicans, but merely propagandists. Hitler was the best propagandist but naive at Geopolitics – the world knows his fate and the suffering of the world.
    Predictable Scenario
    If Pakistan is squeezed by US – India nexus, it would logically be forced into a new Geopolitical arrangement. In the event, Pakistan would fully embrace China, Iran, SCO – Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in a maximalist mode. The low intensity war with prospects of converting in hot war would include the Geopolitical space of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and Kashmir – India. This could lead to an extended /all out war – nuclear war.
    A New Cold War?
    The Geopolitical realignment might see SCO with new members, Pakistan and Iran or linked to SCO as a strategic new entity. It could lead to a Cold War between America and NATO on one side and China and Pakistan, Iran on the other side. SCO and Russia would most likely join China. South Arabia and Turkey both close to Pakistan would oppose US/NATO conflict with Pakistan. India though a strategic partner of USA may not confront China, more so, if Russia and SCO were aligned with Beijing. The great Chinese in their eternal wisdom already talk of a ‘new security architecture for Asia’. NATO rather EU is not keen on confrontation/Cold War with Russia – China. An extreme version of this scenario in future could be a new SCO vs. old NATO. Such a Cold War spreading would convert the world again into the Bi Polar World. With a difference, that a declining Western World faces China – Russia combined. Heart land Plus supported by many Rim land powers, no longer allied and controlled by the Americans. Such a contest would hasten America’s own decline, regardless of the damage American power can inflict on others.  
    Even if the contest is focused on a smaller region that is Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan and by extension India, Saudi Peninsula and Turkey, it would not be in America’s Geopolitical interest. These vast geographic spaces, exploding demography, military resistance, asymmetrical potential and nuclear destruction would create a giant black hole for America. War and radicalization would extend to the Middle East and to some parts of Africa. If the American cause in Afghanistan was a few thousand militants, radicalizing hundred of millions may prove counterproductive in Central – Southern Eurasia and Africa. This may even prove overwhelming for US and NATO in the medium to long term. Dealing with a few thousand Yemeni militants is one thing and confronting millions in Pakistan – Iran is another.  Asymmetrical war has no front, flank or center. This war could well extend to Europe and America itself which is in nobody’s interest. 
    In such a war scenario, US/NATO would sink in a deepening quagmire in Southern Eurasia. After ten years long war in Afghanistan, it would be a much greater geopolitical disaster. With the US economy in severe recession, it could be termed as not misadventure but simply absurd. Direct American military intervention would confront the numerous demography of these vast regions. The losers would be the direct contestants (US and NATO) besides the nations of these regions, as happened in both First and Second World Wars. The winners would obviously be Russia and China – SCO.
    So what is the solution? The answer is ‘Geopolitics of peace’. A new Geopolitical paradigm is the solution. Numerous state actors some non state actors and lobbies are involved in this affair. Still the minimalist -- doable aims of US, China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, EU and even Israel have to be factored in to achieve consensus for peace. Not only in Afghanistan but the regions around. Pakistan cannot be expected to compromise on its national interests nor China on its global rise. Still there is everything to gain and nothing to lose from a negotiated, durable, peace settlement. Not only for the regional countries but the world at large. The Geopolitics of peace is the way forward. A civilized and prosperous world and not the prospects of another World War or even a New Cold War.


    1. well done sir I read your column in the Nation" Kashmir Is Pakistan", so real and I like it. I have pasted it on my personal blog with you name and picture, you can visit it on . ,
      for appreciation pls send feedback as I like Pakistanis having love for pakistan and Kashmiri people.
      Muhammad Haroon

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