Eagle’s Geopolitical Eye
Nadir Mir presenting his book, 'Gwadar on the Global Chessboard to the Ambassador of Turkmenistan H.E Atadjan Movlamov
Russian celebration of Great Patriotic War
Nadir Mir with Russian Ambassador H.E Alexey Y. Dedov and General Sallahuddin Satti
Nadir Mir presenting his book 'Geopolitik Pakistan' to Russian Ambassador H.E Alexey Y. Dedov
With Russian Diplomat and Defence Attaches
Brigadier Nadir Mir at Punjab University.
Middle
East War and Pakistan
Middle East War and Pakistan
Brigadier Nadir Mir as a guest speaker and co-author at book launching.
Nadir Mir with Brigadier Ghazanfar, Brigadier Farooq Hameed, VC Mujajid Kamran and Mr. Niazi.
Brigadier Nadir Mir with Nawab Barozai
Brigadier Nadir Mir at Express Forum
Geopolitic India
Posted by Nadir Mir on Nov 13, 2014 in Special Studies Opinion Maker
Geopolitic India
by Brigadier Nadir Mir
Introduction
Modi’s Hinduvta, old Indian dream of Akhand Bharat and recent obsession of Global India have all combined. The result is a new India, characterized by false over confidence, a grandiose (but unrealistic) global vision and unbridled regional hegemonistic ambitions. All this fusion by a Hindu religious – military – industrial – intelligentia complex, which equates Delhi with Washington, Beijing, Moscow and Tokyo. India’s self aggrandizement knows no bounds!
Buoyed by its rocket’s reach to Mars, the Indian leadership fancy themselves as a rising super power. Hopeful of a multi polar world in future, India seeks to dominate a ‘Greater South Asia’ zone of influence, even while contesting with the other great powers across the globe. For all these neo imperialist dreams to come true, the destruction of the first obstacle to India’s rise is paramount – Pakistan.
Yet for all its fault lines, post 9/11 suffering, political disarray and economic deprivation, the resilient nation of 200 million Pakistanis has stood steadfast like a rock. Sandwiched between US and NATO occupied Afghanistan and belligerent India, Pakistan has in fact proved to be an Interposing State.
Brave Pakistani nation spearheaded by its gallant army and is led by bold and brilliant Army Chief, General Raheel Sharif. After a protracted struggle of 13 years, US and NATO are withdrawing from Afghanistan. Pakistan’s professionally launched military operation Zarb-e- Azb is securing its western frontiers and aimed at internal peace and tranquility.
Unnerved by US withdrawal from Afghanistan, ISIS and other Islamic militant forces are reportedly planning attacks on India, even as Kashmir is boiling again. The heroic Kashmiris refused Indian aid despite super destructive floods. Militancy in Kashmir and Khalistan is likely to start again as Kashmir needs to join Pakistan and Khalistan seeks independence from the Indian Political Union. The stage managed and much trumpeted Modi’s visit in USA was also significant by the joint Kashmir – Khalistan protesters in USA against Indian tyranny and oppression.
Soon after Modi’s brief sojourn from across the Atlantic, Indian Army unleashed its fire power on innocent Pakistani civilians across the LOC and working boundary. The Indian guns only fall silent when Pakistani Forces retaliate in kind. China’s complaint of a new Indian road construction in disputed border region has been brushed aside. Delhi claims, it is too powerful to be warned by China. Recently, the Modi Regime in a huddle with top Indian military brass is upgrading its ‘Two Front War Plans’. Preparations for these two fronts and green light for further destabilizing Baluchistan and retarding Gwadar project had been given. And so it appears!
Unfortunately some among Pakistan’s political elite have not fully grasped the existential threat posed to Pakistan by India and now taken to the next level. It would be a revelation and instructive to fathom the real intent of the powers that be in Delhi.
Pankaj Mishra writes in New York Times in his article, ‘Modi’s Idea of India’,
‘Narendra Modi, India’s new Prime Minister and main ideologue of the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janta Party, is stroking old Hindu rage and shame over what he calls more than a thousand years of slavery under Muslim and British rule. Earlier this month, while India and Pakistan were engaging in their heaviest fighting in over a decade, Mr. Modi claimed that the “enemy” was now “screaming.”. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . celebrating the tests in speeches in the late 1990s, including one entitled “EK Aur Mahahharata (One More Mahabharata) . . . . . . . . . . . . . One can only hope that India’s democratic institutions are strong enough to constrain yet another wounded elite from breaking out for geopolitical and military manhood.”
The Chinese leadership in their great wisdom should be realizing that India is not peace seeking but plans on war waging! The Pakistani political elite should also realize that Pakistan does not need an ‘India Policy’ but Islamabad does need an ‘Anti India Policy’!!
India and Geopolitics
‘India is contained geologically by the Chinese – Pakistani coalition’.
(From the book, ‘Grand Chess board’ by Zbigniew Brzezinski)
This was conventional wisdom. But now India faces a three front scenario.
‘The reality is that India will face three front scenario, if it continues on its present course. India’s internal, militant, centrifugal, independence, separatist movements are gathering momentum. Its hostility with Pakistan and Cold War with China will further aggravate its internal discord’.
India Faces Three Fronts
China, the Rising Giant in the north, India’s explosive internal front in centre and independent Pakistan in the west. Still even as India is likely to be overstretched on three fronts, Delhi’s neurotic obsession is hostility to Pakistan.
India’s think tanks, strategic intelligence community have different options for China’s growing power or India’s own restive, conflicting, centrifugal forces within India.
For Pakistan there is only one option – a policy of veiled confrontation. Out of this Indian policy of confrontation, flows Delhi’s punitive strategy applied across the spectrum against Pakistan.
Diplomatically India tries to isolate Pakistan. Delhi’s diplomatic dance with USA, Japan is followed by an attempted tango with China, even while trying to maintain the old affair with Russia.
In Afghanistan, the American drawdown from Kabul is viewed as an opportunity to establish a second front against Pakistan with Delhi’s backing. Even the US – Iran détente, further bonded by the ISIS threat is seen by India as an opportunity. Delhi aims to build Chah Bahar Port, attempting to out flank Pakistan’s Gwadar Port and reach into Central Asia.
On the military front, India’s war preparations are rising and viewing 2016 – 2018 as possible war period with Pakistan. In the next 2 – 3 years, India is planning to upgrade its defensive – deterrence capability against China. Simultaneously, it develops proactive strategy and the tide of Hinduvta has blended to make some sort of ‘Cold Start’ doable in future, (a capability India clearly lacks in 2014). In India’s strategic thinking, China might not directly enter in to an Indo Pakistan War but Pakistan will enter in to an Indo – China War.
The 1962 Indian military debacle was a clear opportunity lost by Pakistan (even if Pakistan Army was not fully geared up then). 2015 onwards after US withdrawal from Afghanistan, America will be confronting Putin’s Russia in Europe. Likely to remain embroiled with ISIS and affiliates within larger Middle East – Africa. USA’s residual Geo-strategy will be taken over by Washington’s pivot to Asia. La containment of China or bolstering an anti China alliance in Far East along with India and Japan.
India may seek a military conflict with Pakistan in an upgraded version of Cold Start. India is clearly preparing for war with Pakistan in the near future, 2 to 3 years time frame. Else this war may come about by gross Indian miscalculation or provocation!
India’s most dreaded scenario
India’s most dreaded scenario is based on a multi front threat to India which is well within the realm of possibility. This is a combination of a military threat from Pakistan and China, coupled with an asymmetrical, militant Jihadi onslaught, plus the specter of rekindled freedom movements in Kashmir, Khalistan, Assam, Tamil Nadu and elsewhere. Indian Muslims recoil at Hinduvta while Maoist’s rebel against unbridled capitalism. A war India is destined to lose!
In essence, the indicators could be:
- Pakistan Army’s Zar-b-Azb secures its western borders. US withdrawal from Afghanistan is replaced by pro Pakistan powers.
- Gwadar is developed and Baluchistan stabilized. China’s investment and involvement in Baluchistan creates a new balance of power in Pakistan’s favour.
- Pakistan Army relatively freed from its western border concentrates on Pakistan’s eastern border.
- Kashmir is globalised and Pakistani nation mobilized for Kashmir’s liberation.
- Kashmir and Khalistan freedom movements are synergized and have domino effect in Assam, Tamil Nadu and elsewhere in India.
- Indian Muslim Militants inspired from bases in Afghanistan and Iraq wage struggle in India.
- Pakistan selectively responds to India’s military buildup. In the next couple of years, PAF fighter jet fleet is augmented, even as Pakistan Navy acquires new submarines building up second strike capability, while Pakistan Army enhances its fire power and missile assets.
- Pakistan and China strategize on a joint two front war against India.
- Pakistan maintains friendship with USA, the western world even while cozying up with Russia. With China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, Pakistan’s strategic consensus increases to the next level. Relations with old friends like Indonesia are rekindled. The recent visit of
Pakistan’s COAS, a land mark in this context. The Pakistan Army Chief’s crucial visit to USA secures Pakistan’s national security interests.
Myth of Global India
The concept of Global India is a myth waiting to be exposed. The notion of India’s rise as a super power is simply not doable. The factors of geography, history, economy, demography and other Geopolitical aspects, all constrain India from bearing the mantle of a great power.
- Geography: India is hemmed in.
‘If the north of India faces the majestic Himalayas and mountains, west of India faces the ‘Great Wall of Pakistan’.
(From the book, ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ by Nadir Mir)
The ocean in the south and East Asia in its east shackle India’s geography. Before stepping out of the region, India has to neutralize Pakistan and China. Since Delhi does not have the capability of conquering either, the only other suave policy option is accommodation of both. This traditionally has been anathema for the Indian elite. Now Hinduvta infused thinking has set India on a collision course in its north and west. This will further embroil Delhi in the region and retard India’s extra regional ventures.- History
India came from Afghanistan, Central Asia, West Asia and Turkic regions, except the British. All these regions combine to make up Pakistan’s identity, since Pakistan is not merely a South Asian State. The soldiers and people of Pakistan will defeat Indian bid for hegemony in the region. This is the past and future history for South Asia.
- Economy
- Demography
Pakistani Nation is united to defend Pakistan. The war against India is Pakistan’s war of national survival. The brave soldiers of Pakistan are supported by the entire nation. Pakistan’s conventional military strength and asymmetrical prowess can defend Pakistan and even finish the war on a favourable note.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal
In the final analysis, Pakistan’s heroically guarded nuclear arsenal remains supreme. The world respected SPD, under the competent and bold General Zubair Hayat remain ever ready to deter Indian chauvinism. In case, Delhi strategically invades, then Pakistan’s massive nuclear and multiple assured delivery means will unleash ‘Armageddon in the East’.
The Guns of August to India – Pakistan War
The Guns of August to India – Pakistan War
By Brigadier Nadir Mir (R)
Was World War I (1914 – 1918) which started with the ‘Guns of August’ inevitable? Then Second World War (1939 – 1945) may appear as preordained. These and a thousand questions probe the historian’s mind. Yet peace in our times is the need of citizens all over the world. If war in 1914 destroyed an entire generation, a great war in 2014 would be much graver for all humanity.
A Third World War is not needed! Nuclear War between India and Pakistan alone would destroy many regions, kill, maim, stricken and sicken almost 2 billion people (including a billion people who would die from starvation in the famine to follow). If a reckless, hubris filled India attacks Pakistan, it would be a fatal blunder. Pakistan would be defended by its brave soldiers led by their Army Chief General Raheel Sharif known for his professionalism, patriotism and courage. The people of Pakistan would support their Army to destroy the aggressor at any price!
Numerous other flash points for confrontation exist on the planet. Small scale conflicts are galore, more so in Southern Eurasia. The Middle East is in turmoil and parts of Africa explosive. Still no major state actor seeks war with Israel (which enjoys nuclear monopoly). Hence, any conflict in the Middle East would remain small, confined and limited.
A US – Iran War (prospects now extremely remote) would ultimately have been a one sided affair. Even if the Iranians had sunk a US carrier and struck American bases in the region besides blocking the Strait of Hormuz, main land America would have remained strategically invulnerable. Iranians, despite their national courage, would obviously have come to grief. Yet even mighty USA shied away from such an expensive war effort. The conflict brewing in Ukraine has led to a mini cold war between USA led west and Russia. Still a major war between NATO and Russia is unlikely (with Moscow increasingly aligned with Beijing).
Today, there is no model of major state actors fighting a war surpassing the ‘Guns of August 1914’ or even the Blitzkrieg of September 1939, except one. An India – Pakistan War can become a Total War in front of which even the First World War pales. Ironically, there are some similarities between the environment of 1914 in Europe and 2014 in and around South Asia. A brief glance at the tragic First World War before returning to the prospects of a even more horrific and catastrophic India – Pakistan War would be in order.
First World War
The real reason for the ‘Guns of August 1914’ was European Geopolitics. The murder of Austrian Archduke Ferdinand by a Serbian assassin was a tiny spark to a giant powder keg on the European Geopolitical Chessboard. 37 days later, Europe was at war. This month plus proved futile for diplomatic endeavours to avert war. The much quoted military – political – diplomatic gap ensured that the guns would speak. This Great War commenced almost a century after the last great conflict ending in Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo June 1815.
Thus, a far of tussle, Austria – Serbia instigated the great powers to the war path. Rising Germany under a militaristic Kaiser Wilhelm, goaded by an aggressive chief of staff Moltke (junior) were confident of the Schlieffen Plan. Borrowing a leaf from Napoleon’s operational strategy of the central position to the European scale, Count Schlieffen had devised a military strategy of fighting France and Russia sequentially. In essence, Germany would mobilize its forces and with the bulk manoeuvre to out flank Paris and force capitulation of the French Army; while holding the slowly mobilized Russians at bay with lighter forces. Having defeated France the might of Germany would be concentrated on the vastness of Russia.
The British Empire initially neutral, subsequently threw in their lot on the side of France. The Schlieffen Plan based German manoeuvre was to roll into France violating Belgium’s neutrality. This, the British were loath to accept. The acquisition of Belgium’s coast and possible defeat of France by Rising Germany would make the British Isles vulnerable and so thought London.
For centuries British Geopolitics under the notion of balance of power, was averse to any rising power dominating Europe. In this case, the rise of German Navy anathema to the Royal British Navy, German quest for colonies of Africa and a dozen other reasons ensured war on the continent. The causes of the First World War by Historian AJP Taylor are an apt study on the subject. Winston Churchill as first lord of admiralty was among the British hawks (later landed the British and Australian forces in disaster at Gallipoli Turkey). The cousin relationship between the British monarch and German Kaiser could not prevent war, nor limit it.
The Russian Empire under the house of Romanovs was falsely confident of its military prowess. Having defeated Napoleon in 1812 and Cossacks entering Paris in 1814 had given delusions to the Czar. Russia would lose the initial battles against Germany at Tannenberg and subsequently face revolution at home in 1917, capitalized by Lenin and fore told by the Siberian monk Rasputin.
The Austrian Empire was tottering. The Hapsburgs rightly fearing war would lose their empire on the side of Germany. So would the Ottoman Empire face defeat and disintegration as Germany’s allies. Except Mustafa Kamal Pasha, the hero of Gallipoli, who would rise phoenix like from Anatolian heartland as founder of the modern Turkish State. America entered the war on Anglo French side towards the end and helped shift the logistical and military balance against Germany, forcing it to capitulate.
First World War Conclusion
The Schlieffen Plan failed. Even as German mobilization was near perfect (25,000 trains moving on time), the German juggernaut was halted outside Paris. Muddy trench warfare shackled strategy and tactics alike. Millions died on both sides and not much was achieved. The German Empire was exhausted, the Russian Empire in revolution, the victors Anglo French Empires greatly weakened. The Austrian and Ottoman Empires disappeared!
While the valour of millions dutiful soldiers on all sides is saluted hundred years later, the war was a total disaster. It weakened Europe’s global primacy. It led to the rise of Hitler’s Germany (Treaty of Versailles among other causes) and caused the Second World War. After which global power shifted from European Capitals and was contested between Washington and Moscow.
Who really won this war? What would have happened had it been fought with nuclear weapons?
It is now time to draw some lessons for an India – Pakistan War.
India – Pakistan War
Some over confident and conceited Indians are comparing themselves with ‘Rising Germany’ of 1914. Others are talking of two front war with Pakistan and China. An Indian Ali Ahmed writes in ‘South Asia echoes from across a century’ of Schlieffen Plan as India faces a two front war. The Modi regime does not even accept Kashmir as a dispute, leave alone settle it. Already an Indian policy of confrontation with Pakistan is quite visible. Delhi’s wasteful military shopping spree is meant to achieve military supremacy over Pakistan while deterring China. The current Indian worldview seeks military dominance of Greater South Asia and India’s emergence as global economic power.
The debate in Indian strategic circles is who to fight and defeat first, Pakistan or China? In this absurd strategic dilemma, Indian wannabe Clausewitzs, Mahans, Manstiens and Rommels vie in their dim witted illogic. In their level of miscalculation, they beat the Neo cons of America hollow, who thought invading Afghanistan and Iraq would be a picnic. This quixotic worldview of Delhi is fantasy, self pleasing and yet self destructive.
India has obviously been emboldened by a terrorist campaign on Pakistan’s western border (now being eliminated by Pakistan Army). India supports terrorists but failed to embroil the Pakistan Army. The recent political activism in Islamabad provided Delhi minor space to ferment trouble in Kashmir. India is overestimating its military power and underestimating Pakistan’s military potential!
The fact is the Pakistani nation is united with its armed forces to defend Pakistan. Even while controlling militancy on its western border, Pakistan Armed Forces are ready to defeat anything from adventurism to full scale Indian invasion on the eastern border.
The analogy of First World War is in fact misleading. India is no Rising Germany. Pakistan is neither Serbia nor France. It is in fact a nation awake and proud of its national independence. Pakistan is defended by an Army which is battle hardened, and prepared to fight full spectrum war including asymmetrical, conventional to total nuclear war. PM Modi’s claim about Pakistan of not having the conventional military capability to fight India is hollow in the extreme. Pragmatically speaking Pakistan has evolved the military concept of dove tailing sub conventional, conventional, nonconventional war waging to achieve ends of strategy. Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence includes tactical nuclear usage to strategic nuclear exchange which will leave few survivors in India.
On the contrary, India’s Cold Start – Proactive Strategy is not really doable. The equipment, level of training, command control for an Indian Krieg of ten battle groups with air and missile superiority is not yet available. The notion of Cold Start remaining short of Pakistan’s nuclear threshold is simply illogical. With a part of its military force (Cold Start mode) India cannot defeat Pakistan. In the event, Pakistan may yet finish the war on a favourable note.
In case, India was to go for full scale war mobilization la 2001 Escalation Mode, it would need 2 to 4 weeks giving Pakistan ample time to fully mobilize and blunt the Indian offensive. A strategic stale mate in South Asia would be deemed as Pakistani victory, considering Delhi’s penchant of claiming global India status. India’s much acclaimed economy would obviously also be doomed.
A two front war with India fighting both Pakistan and China is a big joke!!
‘India cannot even defeat Pakistan in a short conventional war. The Pakistan military is motivated and ready for battle to defend Pakistan. India’s Cold Start offensive is likely to prove a total disaster. Pakistan’s Air Force one of the finest in the world, always remains at high alert. Pakistan’s versatile missile arsenals can strike earlier in India than India’s land offensive into Pakistan. Pakistan’s quick mobilization and defensive response could include tactical nuclear usage, leading to counter value and counter force nuclear exchange.
No matter how the Indian military wages a two front war, it cannot win, except in Bollywood!’
(Extract from the book, ‘Geopolitk Pakistan’ by Nadir Mir)
The lesson of First World War and today’s India – Pakistan war is simply one. Peace is the only viable option for all. Conflict resolution starting with return of Kashmir to Pakistan is the key. India must also relent on its ambitions in Afghanistan where it can never win.
Strategic balance in the subcontinent is a prerequisite for strategic stability, till resolution of disputes ‘Cold Peace’ should prevail!!
The Limits of Western Geo-Strategy
Posted by on Jul 8, 2014 in Opinion |The Limits of Western Geo-Strategy
By Brigadier Nadir Mir (R)
President Obama, a smart American President is realizing the limits of Western Geo-Strategy. In fact, the culmination point of US Geo-Strategy had already been reached. Even as a unipolar world fades a multi polar era is not emerging. Rather a non polar or zero polar world order is quite visible.
‘USA is globally preeminent but not predominant. It may lead the world, but cannot control the world.’
Geopolitik Pakistan
Nadir Mir
President Putin has repositioned Russia to restore global balance. Moscow is not only globally respected but once again a major player in the Middle East. While China’s share of the global GDP increases all the time. Pakistan under its dynamic and bold Army Chief General Raheel Sharif is proactive to eradicate terrorism. By the same token, defending Pakistan in its full spectrum is his article of faith. Pakistan will emerge as a key player for multi regions.
America is lucky to be led by President Obama, who remains cautious of embroiling USA in new misadventures. The top American military man General Dempsey appears suave enough not to send young Americans in harm’s way for little reason. The mirage of the Iraqi deserts and treacherous ravines of Afghanistan would be an eye opener even for novices, military professionals should know better.
Western Geo-Strategy
Alexander the Great may have been the first wave of western Geo-Strategy marching east till the Indus Valley. Yet the Crusades commencing in 1st millennium may have been more effect creating. Islamic counter stroke by Salahuddin Ayubi in the epic victory at Battle of Hattin 1187 and capture of Jerusalem may have set the stage. Centuries later, after the First World War, when British and French generals arrived at Salahuddin’s grave, they reportedly exclaimed – ‘we have returned’!
The US invasion of Iraq, Arab Spring and later US withdrawal has created a new environment. Out of this mayhem and disorder is emerging ISIS and namesakes. It was claimed Al-Qaida was eliminated; rather new forces and more radical ones are emerging, sweeping across the Middle East, and even Africa. Their Battle cry is “The Caliphate”! ISIS is now converting into the Islamic State. The locomotive of Western Geo-Strategy is America. The problem is that America has more propagandists than Geo-strategicians! One reason Geopolitical problems remain unresolved.
The solution for western Geo-Strategy is to respect great powers like Russia, China and support key states like Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. If non state actors are the predicament, then the remedy obviously lies in augmenting critical state actors.
Sykes – Picot
In the aftermath of the First World War which bleed Europe white the Ottoman Empire was carved up by greedy imperialists. A century later the lessons are coming home to roast. Sykes Picot the English – French master minds created the new map of Middle East which lasted nearly a century!
In the last decades two critical events have changed the Middle East Geopolitical landscape. Firstly the western, US led invasion of Iraq, Afghanistan and its aftermath. Secondly the Arab Spring and winds of change. The US exodus in Iraq has brought the old order down. The Pan Islamic Caliphate seeking militants are on the march. Nationalists and key state actors like Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and most critically Pakistan is the other choice.
The American led western strategy had destroyed the old order in Central Middle East creating a power vacuum. A strategy of ‘Controlled Chaos’ is converting into ‘Uncontrolled Chaos’. It is ironic that American Colonel (R) Ralph Peter’s ‘Blood Borders’ and the ISIS agenda has much in common. They may be mutually inspirational even as avowed enemies. Much more inexplicable that Bathists and Islamic militants including Shias and Sunnis confront USA, after over a decade of US occupation.
Now US faces the predicament of reentering the Arena of Iraq. Falluja ironically hailed by US marines had already become an ISIS strong hold.
Limits of American Geo-Strategy
Iraq is lost and may divide into Shia, Sunni and Kurd regions. Afghanistan may follow suit. After spending trillions of dollars, thousands of causalities and protracted conflicts of well over a decade, the situation may be worse than before. What the world needs is the Geopolitics of peace. Global peace demands accepting Russia’s rights, absorbing China’s rise and resolving key disputes of Kashmir and Palestine.
Pakistan – the Future Decisive Weight
The larger Middle East is on the boil. The central portion of Syria, Iraq is already in flames. The fervour of militant sweep may affect Jordan to Saudi Peninsula. ISIS and affiliates are likely to confront Iran. The two pillars of stability in a future inferno are Pakistan and Turkey.
Pakistan is the decisive weight for many regions. Its status as a bridge state between the larger Middle East and South Asia, Central Asia and South Asia, China and West Asia / Indian Ocean places it on a unique central position. Pakistan’s interposing capability promises its Geo-Strategy clear advantage over other state actors and all non state actors.
Even as the Middle East turns more unstable, America withdraws from Afghanistan. Pakistan has launched a comprehensive military offensive in North Waziristan. The brave and professional Pakistan Army supported by the nation is determined to secure Pakistan.
Afghanistan was the previous war while the one brewing in Iraq – Syria is the future one. Both the Shias and Sunnis in Syria – Iraq blame USA. Washington needs Pakistan not only for Afghanistan’s stability but help bring peace in the greater Middle East. A Shia – Sunni clash is not preordained. Pakistan along with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran can help contain the fires of hell. Pakistan is the only State which has China as a Strategic Ally, USA as an old friend and Russia as a new friend.
Full Spectrum Nuclear Deterrence – Pakistan
Posted by on Jun 9, 2014 in Indo-Pakistan |
Full Spectrum Nuclear Deterrence – Pakistan
By Brigadier Nadir Mir
Pakistan must forge ahead towards full spectrum nuclear deterrence. The era of minimum credible nuclear deterrence is fast coming to an end. Pakistan’s Geopolitical environment is shifting radically. In the East unbridled ‘Hinduvta’ is the new creed. Towards North West in Afghanistan, the Americans are leaving. This strategic climactic can create vacuum and may beacon hostile forces.
“Nukes central to our defence strategy” had been aptly enunciated by Army Chief General Raheel Sharif. While the proud and professional defenders of Pakistan are prepared to deal with multi faceted threats, the environment is unpredictable. Post 9/11, US occupied Afghanistan is giving way to the post US military presence in the region.
Pakistan faces internal security threats and yet the new regime in India may lead to another confrontation with Pakistan. Even while the government of Pakistan seeks peace with India yet conflict can occur due to numerous factors. In essence, political overtures are welcome but Geopolitics is the key to real peace.
Afghanistan
Pakistan – India competition in Afghanistan will become more pronounced in 2014 onwards and may lead to conflict.
‘For New Delhi, realism dictates that a major military effort in Afghanistan is not sustainable ………….. only to fail ………………………….. set in motion events that could potentially lead to – a nuclear confrontation with Pakistan.’
Kashmir
After US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Kashmir is likely to ignite again. Pakistan is determined to resolve Kashmir (unfinished agenda of partition). Delhi may become even more hawkish under it’s new regime which any way wants to revoke Jammu and Kashmir’s special status. This may lead to local clashes in Kashmir which can spiral out of control. Kashmir remains the flash point.
Militancy
The Indian elite has convinced itself that any act of militancy in 1.3 billion people living in India is related to Pakistan. Cold Start or surprise invasion of Pakistan within 72 hours (no matter how disastrous a strategy) is the recipe for a greater war.
Surgical Strikes
Some Indians are fixated with a notion of carrying out surgical strikes against perceived militants (US / Israeli fashion) in Pakistan. Fanatical Indians even talk of carrying out – a ‘Bin Laden’ (nabbing of some militant, supposed to be living in Pakistan).
Obviously such reckless strikes will ignite the flames of an all consuming inferno in South Asia.
Chah bahar and Gwadar
Previous friction between India and Pakistan was generally related to land and air borders. Pakistan’s major base Karachi and Indian Naval base Mumbai were quite distant in peace time. Now as Pakistan’s Gwadar develops and India’s interest in Chah Bahar, naval friction, posturing is likely to enhance. India has a penchant for sailing in other people’s waters. In South China Sea and in Gulf near Pakistan, naval presence of India would lead to turmoil.
Indian Mindset
With global India ambitions, ‘Two Fronts War Plans’, against Pakistan and China, a jingoistic outcome can be expected. In many Indian think tanks and papers the response for Pakistan is mostly the same – punitive strategy. In essence, Delhi’s mindset is that of a school master (India) punishing an uncompromising and independence minded student (Pakistan). More recently, the hawks close to power in Delhi, would love to see Pakistan destroyed. If a future war takes place, the Indian mindset varying from hegemony to dominance would be the principle culprit.
Nuclear Scenarios
War between India and Pakistan is expected to go nuclear at the outset. A large number of realistic Nuclear War Scenarios can be conjectured. The war environment will dictate whether a graduated nuclear escalation takes place or a one rung nuclear escalation ladder unfolds. Both sides are likely to practice escalation domination (in simple language, issuing credible and bigger threats to each other or a one up in nuclear brinkmanship).
Cold Start leading to Nuclear War
Surprise nuclear strikes are possible but not pragmatically doable. Clashes on LOC of Kashmir can spread but could be contained. Even conflict of interests in Afghanistan may not lead to a general war situation. Pakistan seeks peace and has adopted strategic restrain so far.
The most likely nuclear war scenario is related to Cold Start, proactive strategy or simply a surprise conventional invasion of Pakistan which the Indian military dreams of. This could unfold in many ways. By design or by default the decision makers of Delhi on any pretext, perceived or imaginary could take the fateful decision of going to war. Having absurdly convinced themselves that there is space available for conventional war under the nuclear thresh hold.
The assumption that Pakistan would not respond with full force would be a fatal error committed by the adventurous Indians!
Nuclear War by Miscalculation
The greatest chance of nuclear war in South Asia region is likely to be based on miscalculation. The two contenders are unlikely to unleash nuclear first strikes in peace time. Some form of nuclear stability or nuclear deterrence prevails is the orthodox view. Brass tacks 1986, Kargil 1999, Escalation 2001, Mumbai 2008 are cited as war prevention due to the nuclear shadow. Some salient miscalculations are as under:
- War or no war?The first Indian miscalculation is obviously that it can wage limited war, damage or punish Pakistan and get away with it. This view is likely to enhance in an atmosphere of ‘Global India’ hubris. It is further compounded by Delhi’s aim of bearing a mantle larger than British India. The advocates of the ‘Indian Century’ consider Pakistan as a stumbling block to India’s larger ambitions. It is this grandiose obsession which may steer India towards the war path. India is also irked by rising China with whom it hopes to compete. Before confronting China, it may opt to deal with what it terms as the ‘Arch Rival on the Indus’ called Pakistan (even as it prepares for a two front war).By contrast Pakistan can also miscalculate in the opposite sense. Many Pakistanis confident of its nuclear prowess believe there is no chance of war. In case of conflict, this could prove ominous – ‘a Nuclear Ardennes’. Historically, Pakistan being peace seeking has been miscalculating India.Whatever Pakistanis may have miscalculated in 1965, 1971 or kargil is no longer a luxury available to us. Needless to say Pakistan cannot afford to miscalculate in a war likely to go nuclear.
- Tactical or Strategic Nuclear WarPakistan’s strides in tactical nuclear weapons, Nasr and beyond have caused consternation in Indian strategic circles. Battle field nuclear weapons in Pakistani hands are considered as an antidote to Indian Cold Start Strategy. The Indians have launched a tirade or propaganda campaign against Pakistan’s tactical nukes. Besides numerous other feeble notions, the Indians lament nuclear war cannot remain tactical and lead to strategic nuclear war. The fact is that Pakistan is working towards full spectrum nuclear deterrence. Logically this includes both tactical and strategic nuclear responses.Escalation Domination“Shayam Saran convener of the Indian National Security Advisory Board – its nuclear retaliation will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage on its adversary. The label on a nuclear weapon for attacking India, strategic or tactical is irrelevant from Indian perspective’. In essence, for a perceived militant strike in India, it would launch surprise war with armoured spear heads supported by Indian Air Force into Pakistan. In case of Pakistani tactical nuclear usage in its defence, Delhi threatens all out strategic nuclear attacks to annihilate Pakistan. Pakistan in turn can reduce all of India to radioactive debris. Mutually Assured Destruction stage had already been reached, but Delhi is in a state of denial!! Pakistan’s nuclear retribution to an Indian nuclear attack will leave few survivors in India.”
(From the book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ by Nadir Mir) - Pakistan’s Nuclear Developmental StrategyNuclear Pakistan’s detractors, critics, propagandists, term it as the fastest growing nuclear programme. Besides a legion of Indian propagandists, some lobbyists in the western world like Bruce Riedel, Fredrick Kagan, are not amiable to Pakistan. Fact of the matter is that nuclear Pakistan is what ensures stability in many regions and keeps Geopolitical mayhem at bay. Delhi may once again destabilize deterrence as it did by introducing nuclear submarines and missile defence in the nuclear equation. ‘Indian Nuclear Doctrine – Stirrings of Change’ by PR Chari has noted that India’s ‘No First Use’ pledge may be revoked. More so, India’s ‘Nuclear Triad’ efforts make a mockery of limited credible nuclear deterrence.Pakistan’s SPD now brilliantly and boldly led by DG Lt General Zubair Hayat is building a nuclear arsenal among the best in the world. Pakistan’s nuclear developmental strategy needs to cover all range of nuclear threats, ensuring its own security and with guaranty of launching ‘Massive Assured Retribution’. Under a suave and professional joint chief General Rashid Mahmood, Nuclear Pakistan will remain responsible, secure and not to be trifled with.Pakistan should not to be the first to start a war but cannot be the second to launch Nuclear War!
International Maritime Symposium at Navy War College
Talk with Think tanks
Talk on 'Geopolitik Pakistan' at Navy War College
Friday, 24 January, 2014
A topsy-turvy world
Nadir Mir
The planet is moving towards a non-polar world, rather than a
multi-polar one. After World War Two (1945), the world was split into two camps
or ‘bipolar era’ (the Cardinals of the Kremlin and Grand Masters of the White
House). The demise of Soviet Union in 1991 left USA as the undisputed global
master. America’s ‘overstretch’ abroad, contested by numerous quarters and
capitalism going wild, exhausted it within two decades.
China emerged as an economic peer, Putin’s Russia as a strategic rival and elusive Islamic militants embroiled Americans in Islamic lands, even as the Arab Spring created a new equation. Meanwhile, EU faced economic crisis, while global wealth partly shifted into the ‘Petro Gulf’, Asian Tigers and Central Asian cities. The new entrants into the global economic arena included Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and even Mexico.
America had waged protracted, unwinnable wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. With a war weary public at home, the culmination point of US unilateralism had been reached. Even Robert Gates, the previous Secretary Defence, had warned that ‘USA should no longer get involved in land wars in Asia’.
In 2013, when USA was prevented from attacking Syria, it sought diplomacy with Iran (to the annoyance of Israelis and Saudis), and found Karzai reluctant to sign BSA. Kabul did sign agreements with India and Iran and would probably later with USA. But the world had changed for Washington. Even as the US made Asia Pacific its pivot with Air Sea Battle plans against China (akin to Air Land Battle against Soviet Union), its Middle East influence was slipping. Discovery of shale gas at home, besides difficulties abroad also reduced US’ appetite and penchant for Middle East energy reserves. The cumulative effect of all this and much more is that America remains pre-eminent but not predominant. In essence, US may lead but not control the world.
So, now that brings us to the non-polar world. ‘There is no need for conflict between America and China now that global dominance is no longer achievable’. Zbigniew Brzezinski Giants, but Not Hegemons (NY Times Feb 13, 2013)
The emerging non-polar world or zero-polar world has already cast a shadow on Middle East, South Asia and Central Asia confluence. Regional Geopolitics may be taking a new turn.
And now, we move onto regional geopolitics. Now the clock is ticking in Afghanistan. By next year, most US combat forces are expected to leave for home. Afghan war is already a forgotten story in US. Except for small vested lobbies, mainstream America wants an end to this war. Some Afghans living on US dole want US troops to ferry them along to the home of the brave. Some quarters in Pakistan are in a state of denial as to how and why should US leave Afghanistan (perhaps they never heard of US withdrawal from Vietnam). Delhi is petrified by the very idea of US leaving Afghanistan. US – Iran détente is possible, yet the geopolitics of the regions is extremely complicated. Normal relations between the two foes will take some time and are also hostage to future American Administration and their worldview.
The emerging non-polar world and regional geopolitics are positive trends for Pakistan. A unified Pakistan putting its house in order is a prerequisite. By combining its virtues, both as a ‘Bridge’ state and ‘Interposing’ state of multi-regions, Pakistan would guard its national interests. With peace at home and pursuing a nationalistic policy, Pakistan can achieve its rightful place on the map.
Brigadier Nadir Mir (r) is a geopolitician and defence analyst.
China emerged as an economic peer, Putin’s Russia as a strategic rival and elusive Islamic militants embroiled Americans in Islamic lands, even as the Arab Spring created a new equation. Meanwhile, EU faced economic crisis, while global wealth partly shifted into the ‘Petro Gulf’, Asian Tigers and Central Asian cities. The new entrants into the global economic arena included Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and even Mexico.
America had waged protracted, unwinnable wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. With a war weary public at home, the culmination point of US unilateralism had been reached. Even Robert Gates, the previous Secretary Defence, had warned that ‘USA should no longer get involved in land wars in Asia’.
In 2013, when USA was prevented from attacking Syria, it sought diplomacy with Iran (to the annoyance of Israelis and Saudis), and found Karzai reluctant to sign BSA. Kabul did sign agreements with India and Iran and would probably later with USA. But the world had changed for Washington. Even as the US made Asia Pacific its pivot with Air Sea Battle plans against China (akin to Air Land Battle against Soviet Union), its Middle East influence was slipping. Discovery of shale gas at home, besides difficulties abroad also reduced US’ appetite and penchant for Middle East energy reserves. The cumulative effect of all this and much more is that America remains pre-eminent but not predominant. In essence, US may lead but not control the world.
So, now that brings us to the non-polar world. ‘There is no need for conflict between America and China now that global dominance is no longer achievable’. Zbigniew Brzezinski Giants, but Not Hegemons (NY Times Feb 13, 2013)
The emerging non-polar world or zero-polar world has already cast a shadow on Middle East, South Asia and Central Asia confluence. Regional Geopolitics may be taking a new turn.
And now, we move onto regional geopolitics. Now the clock is ticking in Afghanistan. By next year, most US combat forces are expected to leave for home. Afghan war is already a forgotten story in US. Except for small vested lobbies, mainstream America wants an end to this war. Some Afghans living on US dole want US troops to ferry them along to the home of the brave. Some quarters in Pakistan are in a state of denial as to how and why should US leave Afghanistan (perhaps they never heard of US withdrawal from Vietnam). Delhi is petrified by the very idea of US leaving Afghanistan. US – Iran détente is possible, yet the geopolitics of the regions is extremely complicated. Normal relations between the two foes will take some time and are also hostage to future American Administration and their worldview.
The emerging non-polar world and regional geopolitics are positive trends for Pakistan. A unified Pakistan putting its house in order is a prerequisite. By combining its virtues, both as a ‘Bridge’ state and ‘Interposing’ state of multi-regions, Pakistan would guard its national interests. With peace at home and pursuing a nationalistic policy, Pakistan can achieve its rightful place on the map.
Brigadier Nadir Mir (r) is a geopolitician and defence analyst.
Email:nadirmir13@gmail.com
The Army Chief and Future Geopolitics
The Army Chief, General Raheel Sharif, has
assumed command at a critical juncture in Pakistan’s history. Fortunately, he
is uniquely balanced in being bold and elegant, soldier and gentleman, amiable
and resolved. A patriotic lineage, and martyrs from his family history evoke both
inspiration and aspirations from soldiers and citizens alike. His military
grooming and nationalistic vision both are aptly suited to deal with internal
security dynamics of Pakistan and regional Geopolitics.
Globally Pivotal and Nuclear Armed Pakistan. The reason COAS of Pakistan Army is rated
among the powerful, influential men of the world by Forbes and other global
estimates, is because General Raheel Sharif heads a large, powerful and
professional Army. Moreover, Pakistan being globally pivotal is also the
reason. Its national security is influenced by South Asia, Central Asia, West
Asia, China and Indian Ocean. In turn Pakistan influences the Geopolitics of
many regions, because it is not only a South Asian entity but truly multi
regional. This concept of Pakistan as a ‘Bridge State’ and also ‘Interposing
State’ is presented in my recent book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’. Pakistan’s
military power influences not only Afghanistan and India but its nuclear power
is globally reckoned. Pakistan’s expanding nuclear arsenal enhances
its deterrence capability, and also elevates the strategic stature of
Pakistan’s COAS.
National Security Challenges.
- East. India remains Pakistan’s main and
perpetual existential threat. As the world’s largest arms importer, build
up of nuclear war fighting triad, augmented by outer space forays, trigger
happy Cold Start preparations and seeks to enforce a two front scenario on
Pakistan. Delhi not only tyrannizes Kashmir, aspires to destabilize
Pakistan through Afghan bases but also works on a sinister plan to enhance
friction between Iran and Pakistan. In essence, while threatening from the
East, undermine from within and strategic encirclement from West of
Pakistan is India’s design. Even more ominous and deceptive are peace,
cultural and friendship claims by the disciples of so called ‘Global
India’.
- North
West. US – NATO deinduction from Afghanistan in 2014 is a
Geopolitical climactic. The future security environment in Afghanistan will
be radically different from today. The Kabul regime, former Northern
Alliance supported by India may battle the emboldened and augmented
Taliban. Even if the Americans leave a rear guard manning nine bases,
their stay will become inhospitable after some time. India will try to arm
terrorists for strikes on Pakistan even as it fails to invoke Pashtun and
Baloch nationalism to weaken Pakistan. A negotiated settlement involving
Afghan Taliban, Pakistan, US and Kabul (minus India) could prevent an
Afghan Civil War. Pakistan holds most cards and is poised as a winner;
still it cannot permit India to consolidate its hold on Afghanistan, even
as Delhi builds an inhuman wall to convert Kashmir into a ‘Giant Prison’.
- South
West. US – Iran interim nuclear
deal may be a harbinger of things to come. By end 2014, US draw down of
forces in Afghanistan may also be linked to a new understanding with Iran.
Unless the nuclear deal fizzles out, leading to more sanctions by USA on
Iran or Israel strikes Iran which escalates into a greater regional war.
In any event, India is investing in Chah Bahar Port aiming to bypass
Gwadar, encirclement of Pakistan and access to Afghanistan and Central
Asia. Delhi may enjoy the benevolence of Washington in this unholy nexus.
Still Iran is expected to remain friendly to Pakistan and not fall into
this trap, rather build energy links with Pakistan.
- Internal. Pakistan faces multi pronged terrorist campaign. This
has been a combined product of internal adverse dynamics and hostile
Geopolitics. The Pakistani Taliban in KPK and Baluch militants in
Baluchistan, have created mayhem. Besides tragic loss of lives and limbs,
the economy has been ruined. Pakistan needs internal peace at the
earliest. The Pakistani Taliban and Baluch militants need to be pacified,
employing all elements of national power. Fortunately, the federal
government is already seeking peace with both forms of militancy.
- Indian
Propaganda. General Bikram Singh Indian COAS expects cooperation
from Pakistan on LOC (to India’s advantage). Indian Army Lt General Syed
Ali Husnian (R) too wants General Raheel Sharif to keep LOC in Kashmir
quiet. (While India builds the great wall of oppression).In essence Indian
propagandists as per their desires want Pakistan Army further embroiled in
the Western Border even after Americans leave Afghanistan. Delhi wants
Pakistan Army imbalanced on its Eastern Border, further duped by cultural
and trade gimmicks. Unfortunately for the Indians, Pakistan Army fully
comprehends Indian stratagems and COAS General Raheel Sharif is very
competent to give a befitting reply.
- National
Security and Democracy. Even
while ensuring national security, democracy will be supported by the Army.
Indeed the time has come to overcome this civil – military divide. The
Army Chief with his confident personality is well suited to bring harmony
in soldiers and citizens for the security and prosperity of Pakistan.
- Future
Endeavours. A complete response to
national security challenges merits, a research paper. The contours of
some salient’s can at best be listed here:
- National
Unity The Army and nation are united and this needs to be
further cemented in all ways. Peace within Pakistan will free the Army for
its main job, defending Pakistan from India and to maintain balance of
power in the region.
- Full
Spectrum Nuclear Deterrence Full
spectrum Nuclear Deterrence must be built up. It is nuclear weapons power
which puts Pakistan on the global map, besides ensuring regional nuclear
deterrence. Pakistan must resist FMCT and keep building its nuclear
arsenal.
- Modern
War Machine
Even though strategy drives
technology but technology also drives strategy. The two are
interdependent. Despite paucity of resources a modern war machine is
indispensable for Pakistan. China and Turkey are strategic partners and
great conduits for military technology.
- Single
Front The Pakistan Army must concentrate on a single front –
Eastern Frontier. Peace within Pakistan, facilitating Exit Strategy for
USA from Afghanistan, is paramount. Hostile ‘Game Plan’ of embroiling
Pakistan Army on the Western Frontier must be defeated. Pakistan Army
should be gracefully shifted from Western to Eastern border in 2014
onwards.
- Kashmir
LOC Pakistan Army must remain pro active in Kashmir LOC and
vigilant on its Eastern Border. Indian aggression in Kashmir must be
responded, tit for tat. India’s wall making in Kashmir should be resisted
in the disputed land.
- Conclusion The Army Chief General Raheel Sharif is in command when
new opportunities will present themselves. With his astute strategic
sense, he knows that time is on the side of Pakistan. The Americans are
greatly thinning out of Afghanistan, and Pakistan should reap the fruit of
sacrifices of a decade long war. Indian Geo-strategic game plan is failing
in Afghanistan, even as occupied Kashmir becomes more insecure. Under
dynamic leadership, Pakistan will not only defend itself but attain its
rightful place in the regions around. Pakistan will triumph in future!!
Posted by on Nov 11,
2013 in Book Reviews
Geopolitik Pakistan
Pakistan’s Weltanschauung (World View) By Nadir Mir
By Editor
The book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ is a major contribution
on the Pakistani intellectual scene. This seminal endeavour on Geopolitiks from
Pakistani perceptive is even more astounding. The book aims to introduce a
critical subject with new thinking for the benefit of Pakistani nation and the
world at large. Pakistan’s Weltanschauung or world view is indeed a
pioneering Geopolitikal work of the author Brigadier Nadir Mir (R). His first
book was ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ which was on Geo economics and
greatly contributed to rekindle the Gwadar Project.
Pakistan’s Weltanschauung or world view is the abiding
theme rather than foreign imported concepts and ideas. Geopolitik, in this book
is a combination of National Security Policy and Foreign Policy. It commences
with an appraisal of Global Geopolitikal environment which is heading towards a
Non Polar World rather than an imminent Multi Polar World. In essence, even as
the western world’s dominance recedes no new hegemon would be globally
dominant. The critical importance of Geopolitiks for Pakistan and the subject’s
evolution are discussed thread bare initially.
The Geopolitiks relating to Afghanistan, Pakistan –
India’s Geopolitikal rivalry and likely India – China Cold War are dealt at
length and convincingly. Future Geopolitik 2013 – 2020 is an apt description of
critical players in the global world. This is a fascinating Geopolitikal world
tour.
Aspects of Geo-Oceanic Politik and Geo-Demographic
Politik, relationship of Politiks and Geopolitiks, Great Games and BRICS future
are extremely well presented.
The book contains 13 chapters, 283 pages and it is summed
up in its Crux Chapter, to craft Geo-strategy and Geo-economics for Pakistan.
The maps, sketches and illustrations make the book graphically comprehensive
and illuminate the bigger world picture. Despite the Pakistani origin of
this work, over all the global vision is perfectly apparent. ‘Geopolitks of
Peace’ is the solution to the world’s problem. US – China amity is in global
interest and Pakistan in fact proved a Geopolitikal bridge for initial US –
China contacts. Russia has a great role to play for global peace and balance.
Even as new powers Turkey, Brazil, South Africa are rising and contributing to
the world’s prosperity. The same way, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and
others have historical, cultural and multi links with Pakistan. This work
portrays Pakistan’s potential both as a bridge state and an interposing state.
‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ is an effort to highlight Pakistan as a unified, powerful
and prosperous rising power, its current troubles notwithstanding. Pakistan
needs change and the change should be democratic, reform revolution based.
The book is very well researched. A rare combination of
history, geography, economics, strategy, ideology, emotions and a lot more to
make it real Geopolitiks. It covers the historic past, deals with present day
issues and projects the future pragmatically. This propagates Pakistan’s new
National Security Narrative and Foreign Policy which projects Pakistan’s
National Cause. While suggesting peace with India, Indian hegemony is to be
resisted and Kashmir remains central to Pakistan’s Cause.
All told, the book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ is a surprise
gift from this beleaguered nation. Any reader would be influenced by the
historic truths, geographical realities, pragmatic deductions and logical yet
suggestive narration. Certainly, a book of sound ideas and great authority for
every chapter being virtually conclusive.
The author, as a pioneering Geopolitician has contributed
immensely to the National Cause of Pakistan and for global peace. He is
initiating Pakistan National Reform.
The author Brigadier Nadir Mir has written articles on
Geopolitics, they have been published in Pravda ru (Moscow), China Daily
(Beijing), EU Times, The Nation Pakistan and many think tanks.
Brief of Book,
‘Geopolitik Pakistan’
§ This book has been authored by Brigadier Nadir Mir (R). His
first book was ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ which has greatly contributed
to rekindle the Gwadar Project.
§ The author Brigadier Nadir Mir has written articles on Geopolitics,
which have been published in Pravda ru (Moscow), China Daily (Beijing), EU
Times, The Nation Pakistan and many think tanks.
§ This book introduces the subject of Geopolitks from Pakistani
point of view. Pakistan’s Weltanschauung or world view is the abiding theme
rather than foreign imported concepts and ideas.
§ Geopolitik, in this book is a combination of National Security
Policy and Foreign Policy.
§ It commences with an appraisal of Global Geopolitikal
environment which is heading towards a Non Polar World rather than an imminent
Multi Polar World. The critical importance of Geopolitiks for Pakistan and the
subject’s evolution are discussed thread bare initially.
§ The Geopolitiks relating to Afghanistan, Pakistan – India’s Geopolitikal
rivalry and likely India – China Cold War are dealt at length and convincingly.
§ Future Geopolitik 2013 – 2020 is an apt description of critical
players in the global world. This is a facinating Geopolitikal world tour.
§ Aspects of Geo-Oceanic Politik and Geo-Demographic Politik,
relationship of Politiks and Geopolitiks, Great Games and BRICS future are extremely
well presented.
§ ‘Geopolitks of Peace’ is the solution to the world’s problem. US
– China amity is in global interest.
§ And lastly, the book is summed up in its Crux Chapter, to craft
Geo-strategy and Geo-economics for Pakistan.
§ The book is very well researched, historical, geographical but also
futuristic. Propagates Pakistan’s new National Security Narrative and Foreign
Policy which projects Pakistan’s National Cause. While suggesting peace with
India, Indian hegemony is to be resisted and Kashmir remains central to
Pakistan’s Cause.
§ The author, Nadir Mir, as a pioneering Geopolitician has
contributed immensely to the National Cause of Pakistan.
Book
Launching of ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’
Balochistan and the Pakistan Army by Nadir Mir
The enemy in Balochistan is neither the Baloch, nor
the Pakistani army, but international hostile forces and their allies. The
problem in the province is a deep sense of deprivation, alienation, grievance;
the cycle of violence, underdevelopment of a sparse demography spread over vast
spaces and, of course, geopolitics. Many Balochis claim to be fighting for
their rights; however, a minority is either backed by foreign powers or seeks
their intervention.
Against this backdrop, the six points enunciated by Sardar
Akhtar Mengal should not be compared with Sheikh Mujibur Rehman’s infamous six
points. The environment in Balochistan is pragmatically different from the
tragedy of East Pakistan. Pakistan has come to stay, much to the chagrin of its
enemies. In fact, it will rise as a great nation. Those predicting its
balkanisation must be rebutted vigorously.
By the same token, the angry and aggrieved Baloch
should be welcomed back into national mainstream. The COAS has aptly and timely
supported the political process (within the constitution) for achieving peace
in Balochistan. The army and ISI while bravely defending Pakistan are keen to
stabilise Balochistan. The army has launched and supported numerous economic
development and educational programmes for it, which are creating a positive
environment. Despite this, there is a need to involve other political forces to
resolve the Baloch issue.
Sardar Akhtar Mengal, Nawab Talal Bugti and other
Baloch leaders have toured the country to muster support for their cause. Talal
has repeatedly stressed on the loyalty of Baloch with Pakistan. The major
political parties, PML-N, PTI, JI and others, have wisely embraced the Baloch
Brothers. These are happy tidings that can help to create an environment
leading to a remedy for the malaise in beautiful Balochistan. Also, the Supreme
Court has, to an extent, accepted the Baloch petitions as an aggrieved party.
Hence, Baloch grievances should be heard and resolved in Pakistan, rather than
in foreign courts and hostile lands.
Indeed, it is time to end the blame game and
maintain permanent peace and stability in Balochistan. Nawab Talal Bugti,
Sardar Ataullah Mengal, Sardar Akhtar Mengal and other veteran Baloch leaders
must be supported in a national reconciliation effort.
The geopolitics of Balochistan
Sinister forces appear to be at work to sever the
Pakistani and Iranian Balochistan (called Seistan). It seems that this
balkanisation agenda is part of a larger geopolitical design. An appropriate
West Asian strategy is being chiselled by hegemonic powers. Reportedly,
Nooruddin Mengal from Pakistan and Naseer Balodi from Iran in a three-day
session recently briefed the EU Parliament. Both launched a tirade against
Pakistan and Iran, besides pleading for foreign intervention (à la Libya,
Nato-style intervention?). Before that the US Congress had introduced a bill to
sever Balochistan from Pakistan. Coming on its heels, a UN mission on
Balochistan had even suggested disciplinary action against military officers
for alleged excesses. These may be the contours of a foreign intervention case.
A part of the so-called liberal media (foreign
funded?) in Pakistan and liberal puppets living on foreign dole are already
blaming the Pakistani state. These ‘Trojan horse’ tactics in the information
age smack of shaping the battlefield. Their aim is to demonise the army, the
ISI, divide the people of Pakistan, create political confusion, and galvanise
terrorists so that mayhem abounds, leading to the paralysis of the state. After
defaming and psychologically isolating the army and ISI, the stage would be set
for a unilateral declaration of independence by a few foreign sponsored Baloch.
The foreign forces could then be employed in intervention of Balochistan.
The Pak Army, therefore, supported by all patriotic
citizens, must become proactive for the resolution of problems faced by
Balochistan.
The solution of Balochistan
A holistic solution for Balochistan must include the
following:
National Unity: The need of the hour is national
unity. The Baloch leaders, mainstream political parties, judiciary, armed
forces, civilian government, media and civil society have to combine their
efforts for a peaceful and prosperous Balochistan. Pakistan and Balochistan
belong to all Pakistanis.
Reconciliation: The army must take an initiative,
along with the government, to accommodate the angry and affected Baloch. The
PML-N, under the leadership of Mian Nawaz Sharif, is most well placed to
placate the Baloch leaders. This scribe had suggested this to Nawaz Sharif in the
Gwadar Conference 2012.
Baloch Aspirations: The Baloch sense of injustice
needs to be removed. All Baloch leaders and others in Pakistan seek justice for
Nawab Akbar Bugti’s killing. The perception of injustice must be eradicated.
The Baloch youth needs a special national package of free education and
employment.
Economic Cycle: Balochistan has numerous treasures,
which should benefit first the people of the province and then the rest of
Pakistan. The greatest potential is in Gwadar concept amply highlighted in my
book titled “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”. This can bring prosperity and
also change the destiny of the Baloch and other Pakistanis.
Security: The first act is to freeze the cycle of
violence. An understanding based on reconciliation is the basis of security.
While the army remains in its garrisons, the Frontier Corps should be more
biased towards the western borders. A new internal security force for
Balochistan may be considered with the bulk from Baloch areas.
Information Warfare: The media can help positively
resolve Balochistan problem by encouraging reconciliation with the Baloch and
discouraging foreign interference. Also, the army can further augment its
information warfare capabilities. The ISPR has recently become more effective in
projecting the army’s viewpoint. It should concentrate more on Balochistan
solution with army’s positive contribution. The ISI while brilliantly guarding
Pakistan needs to expose the foreign agendas and hostile agencies fishing in
Balochistan’s troubled waters. A serious effort to retrieve the missing persons
must be well projected.
Blocking Foreign Interference: Pakistan’s Foreign
Office and the army under the government must present a unified case for
blocking foreign interference in Balochistan. All forms of foreign
interference, including propaganda, funding, training, and arming of insurgents
or succour for their leaders abroad, must be dealt with firmly.
Even while blocking foreign interference through all
elements of national power, the key to peace in Balochistan lies in national
unity and reconciliation. Thus, all Baloch leaders have to be brought on board
to maintain peace, prosperity and stability in the province. It should be
remembered that Balochistan is as much part of Pakistan as Punjab or any other
province. The military backed by people will defend Balochistan like the rest
of Pakistan.
The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a
book tittled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard. Email: nadirmir13@gmail.com
Blog: wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com
Who is Pakistan’s existential enemy - USA, India or
the militants?
The obvious answer is India! The reason this
question needs to be answered is to clarify the hazy image of national
security. Indeed, a security policy built on mixed views is bound to fail. And
“if the policy is faulty, even a brilliant strategy will flounder.” Existential
threat here means a threat posed to the unity, demography and integrity of
Pakistan. The very basis of the state or its physical existence stands
challenged.
No army can successfully fight on many fronts.
Napoleon’s army and Hitler’s Wehrmacht both fell victims to imperial
overstretch. Pakistan’s army is already facing numerous threats: India’s Cold
Start strategy, USA’s de-nuking agenda, foreign sponsored separatists in
Balochistan, Indian rekindled Sindhudesh movement, Karachi based ethnic/mafia
groups, militants in Pakhtunkhwa and spill over of war in Afghanistan.
The army’s primary task is to guard the borders
against foreign threats. This essentially means deterring an Indian attack or a
de-nuking attempt by any foreign power. The rest of the threats mentioned above
need to be dealt with politically and with the support of the security forces.
An internal security or specialised anti-terror force needs to be established.
Therefore, the army should not be employed to solve political or economic
issues; or tasks that are meant for specialised forces.
From 1947 till 2001, the existential threat from
India was clear. The muddying of waters began after USA’s invasion of
Afghanistan. Although the 11-year long war was waged in that country, Pakistan
had to bear the brunt. It converted Pakistan into a battlefield. ‘AfPak’ was
meant to create the perception of a war zone on both sides of the western
border. Buzz words like GWOT, non-state actors, al-Qaeda, Haqqanis, Blackwater
and terrorists served as a ‘Strategy of Deflection’. First, the US aim was to
use Pakistan’s assets to help defeat the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.
Second, shift Islamabad’s strategic orientation away from New Delhi so that India
could be pampered to compete with China and also entrench itself in Afghanistan
(both were part of the neocon geopolitical wish list).
The Indians played along. After the 2001-02 military
standoff, India pacified Pakistan’s eastern border, but inflamed its western
border. In the bargain, it established a network of consulates in Afghanistan
to destabilise Pakistan. The corrupt and nonchalant Pakistanis took peace with
India seriously; they saw their salvation in friendship with it.
A decade long bombing terrorist campaign further
confused the issue. The Taliban, al-Qaeda, Blackwater, Indian agents were all
blamed. The lethality of terrorist strikes mostly indicated a high degree of
sophistication with some being run-of-the-mill crude attacks. There was method
in the madness. Apparently, multiple forces were involved conveniently labelled
as Taliban.
Apparently, the Taliban have two basic motivations.
First to eject the occupying forces from Afghanistan; and second to impose
their version of Islam. Since Pakistan was perceived to be a US ally, hatred
towards it has grown into a ferocious militant bombing campaign.
Simultaneously, separation seeking Baloch militants are being supported and
financed by foreign intelligence agencies, while the Sindhudesh militant
leader, reportedly, seeks succour in Kabul.
The US, while partially withdrawing from
Afghanistan, wants to embroil our army further into the hornet’s nest.
Washington’s mantra that Pakistani army is fighting its lost war is endless.
The Indians, too, are keen to get it bogged down on the western border through
operations in North Waziristan. So the Malala incident is being exploited and
misdirected. An orchestrated Indo-US media campaign, supported by liberals in
Pakistan, aims to lure the Pakistani army. Their baited gambit seeks to launch
it against its own people. This could create a massive backlash and terrorist
campaign, further destabilising the state.
With our army engaged in an endless war in
Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and Sindh, the stage will be set for coup de grâce.
This could set in motion Pakistan’s denuclearisation and balkanisation; plans
that were conceived in hostile foreign lands. Perhaps, a perfect time to
initiate the Cold Start strategy or denuclearisation campaign. Even a limited version
of this scenario aims to pit our army against the Taliban and those fighting
the foreign troops in Afghanistan. With the Americans leaving and the Indians
vulnerable in Afghanistan, they seek to diminish Pakistani influence in
Afghanistan. Our enemies want war in Pakistan and clamour for peace in the
region. But Pakistan needs peace at home and peace abroad.
The American geopolitical wish list was endless and
frequently not doable, which resulted in an 11-year long war in Afghanistan. In
addition to an exit strategy from Afghanistan complicated by USA’s desire to
leave India - not Pakistan - as the winner. America is now perceived in some
circles as the most dangerous threat to Pakistan. Yet logically speaking,
hostility is an insane option for both USA and Pakistan. Islamabad and
Washington can be friends again after the US leaves Afghanistan. Pakistan’s
alliance with China, new friendship with Russia and old ties with the Taliban
can help bring balance and peace in Afghanistan.
Nevertheless, the threat to Pakistan from India
commenced long before 1947. The Indians wanted to replace the British Raj and
were loath to see the subcontinent divided. Unable to prevent the partition,
they conspired to ensure that a moth-eaten Pakistan comes into being. Since
1947, their strategy has been to harm the country in every conceivable manner.
India’s hegemonic agenda and its support for terrorists and separatists in
Pakistan have spoiled their relations. Hence, the present existential threat to
Pakistan is mainly from India.
The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a
book titled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard. Email: nadirmir13@gmail.com
Blog:wwwpakistangeopolitics. blogspot.com
Kashmir
is Pakistan! by Nadir Mir
Firstly, the IHK (about two thirds as one-third was
liberated in the 1948 Kashmir war) is the leftover legacy of 1947. The
‘unfinished’ business of partition - the main dispute between Pakistan and
India is Kashmir and its river waters.
People: The Kashmiri people are akin to Pakistanis.
Their right to join Pakistan was to be decided through the democratic method of
a free and impartial UN sponsored plebiscite, which is tragically denied till
date.
Geography: From a geographical viewpoint, a look at
the map confirms Kashmir belongs to Pakistan. In the imperfect partition of
1947, the regions of Pathankot-Gurdaspur were mischievously taken by India.
Otherwise, India would have had no access or land routes to Kashmir. It would
have simply been part of Pakistan.
River Waters: Pakistan’s river waters emanate from
Kashmir. Without water, Pakistan’s agriculture, and perhaps demography, is
simply not sustainable. India on account of its size and diversity has other
water sources, but Pakistan has none! The next war may be a water war. A
peaceful solution to a nuclear conflagration is in everybody’s interest.
Secondly, Kashmiris have been struggling against the
Indian tyranny since 1947. Historically, their freedom movement has much
earlier roots. The Kashmiri freedom fighters are waging a just struggle for
national liberation. India’s plans to equate Kashmir with the militants was
facilitated by the 9/11 terrorism syndrome. The freedom fighters include not
only men, but also women and children. India has been inflicting all sorts of
atrocities on the hapless Kashmiris.
The Indian forces, reportedly, committed genocide by
killing thousands of Kashmiris. An estimated over 25,000 Kashmiri women have
been raped or injured by them. Widows in Kashmir are in thousands, while
children have suffered the most. By repeating the mantra of ‘cross-border
terrorism’, India has tried to blame Pakistan for its crimes in Kashmir. Mass
graves of over 2,000 people have been discovered in Kashmir. Yet, the flame of
freedom cannot be extinguished, since the Kashmiris don’t want to be a part of
India.
The question, however, is: how can the Indian
government commit such excesses and claim Kashmir to be its toot ang? Even
worse, how can Pakistan forsake the support to Kashmiris for the sake of
keeping New Delhi in good humour?
Thirdly, Pakistan’s Kashmir policy has not changed.
Nor can it be changed for anyone, including some ill-informed government
officials. The reason is simply that Kashmir is not a part of India. In case,
anyone has doubts, a referendum can be held in Pakistan on Kashmir being given
to India. In a democratic Pakistan, the people decide on key national issues -
Kashmir being primary. The people and soldiers of Pakistan are nationalistic
and believe that Kashmir has to return to Pakistan. And no sane political leader
in Pakistan will relent on the Kashmir cause, as complete national consensus
prevails.
Finally, all kinds of stratagems have been tried,
but failed to break the will of Kashmiri people. India has fought numerous
wars, near wars and even risked nuclear exchange with Pakistan over Kashmir.
The world is partly aware of the Kashmiris’ plight and needs to be further
galvanised. India supported militants in Balochistan partly as a ‘Strategy of
Deflection’ to embroil Pakistan on its Western borders. Else to equate trouble
in Balochistan with Kashmir. Hoping to achieve leverage or quid pro quo, New
Delhi strives to equate Pakistan’s internal matters with India-Pakistan
interstate disputes.
The tragedy of Kashmir cannot be neglected for long,
nor is there any viable solution other than the withdrawal of all Indian
security forces from Kashmir. The Kashmiris want freedom from India and will
settle for nothing less. Pakistan and the world at large must support their
right of self-determination. The US, which stands for human rights, should
support the Kashmiri people’s struggle for freedom.
Pakistan and India need to resolve the Kashmir
dispute on priority basis, rather than relegate it for a later, albeit
explosive, timeframe. It is just a matter of time before the Kashmiri people
will be masters of their own destiny.
The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a
book titled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard. Email: nadirmir13@gmail.com Blog:
wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com
National
interest and Pakistan Army by Nadir Mir
Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s
recent statement was apt, timely and thought-provoking. It is a positive
contribution that evoked a lively media debate. Vested interests tried to
portray it as the “clash of institutions”. However, difference of opinion is
not at all a sign of “clash” between state organs, especially in a mature and
democratic society.
Pakistan today is neither run by a dictator, nor
solely governed by foreign diktat. Indeed, national interest is supreme; and
wisely the army is not claiming monopoly of it, neither can any other
individual or group!
At the moment, Pakistan’s environment is internally
diverse and externally demanding. National political power in the state is
shared between multiple power centres and is passing through a “defining
phase”. The military, judiciary, national and provincial governments, political
parties, media, civil society and even reformers are all stakeholders. However,
the COAS address was appreciated in numerous quarters; both the PPP and the
PML-N responded positively.
The army has and should further distance itself from
previous military dispensations. It belongs to the nation and is adored by the
people of Pakistan. Similarly, the ISI, while bravely defending the nation, has
further improved its image. In the forthcoming elections, it is not supporting
any political party, as was the perception some time ago.
The previous mistakes committed by all in the
country, including the army, can be accounted individually, since no one is above
the law. Undoubtedly, the Supreme Court is revered by all Pakistanis. By the
same token, ‘army bashing’, as appears in a section of the sensationalised
media, is unwarranted. In fact, when seen in the light of hostile geopolitics,
it betrays the sinister aim of an alien game plan.
Today, some of the major geopolitical and national
issues concerning Pakistan are:
Afghanistan in post-2014 period: President Barack
Obama’s re-election means that the 2014 exit strategy for USA is reconfirmed.
Pakistan does not need to fight a war, which the US is itself aborting. The
Americans are leaving (even if a rear guard is left behind), while the Talibans
are staying in Afghanistan. Pakistan needs peace in Afghanistan and peace on
the Pak-Afghan border. Pakistani army needs to be freed from war on its western
border. This already enjoys the broad consensus of Pakistanis and the army is
contributing heroically to that end.
Balochistan and foreign intervention: Balochistan is
in turmoil due to past mistakes and hostile geostrategy. The Indians are keen
to block Gwadar and Americans agree; in addition, they want to isolate Iran. A
so-called West Asian strategy is being chiselled to create independent
Balochistan.
Reportedly, Dr Waheed Baloch, an immigrant,
requested the US administration to intervene in Balochistan through the CIA (a
la Libya and Syrian model). This was an attempt at balkanising both Pakistan
and Iran by alien forces. This was initially a neocon-sponsored balkanisation
project. It is hoped that a re-elected President Obama will maintain friendship
with Pakistan, rather than allow wildly dangerous misadventures in his second
term. China and Russia support Pakistan and Iran; nevertheless, they are also
striving to reach the Indian Ocean from Balochistan.
The Baloch have to be brought on board so that
Pakistan is united for a national purpose. All Pakistani citizens must support
a new amiable army as well as political initiative for peace in Balochistan.
Peace with India and Kashmir: Peace with India is
logical, since both countries have nuclear weapons. The nuclear powers cannot
afford direct confrontation, simply because it is totally destructive and
unaffordable. Pakistan’s nuclear strides cannot be taken lightly, nor can peace
be one-sided. Even as Pakistan seeks peace with India and trade flows multiply,
India should reciprocate. Instead of planning ‘Cold Start’, Kashmir needs to be
resolved.
Economic cycle: Pakistan needs to revive an economic
national cycle. This warrants social, political and economic reforms that will
boost its growth. In addition to augmenting its traditional economic base,
Pakistan needs to embrace geo-economics. Its pivotal geography and diligent
demography, can convert the Gwadar dream into a reality. Peace and prosperity
go together!
Today, the army is ready to defend Pakistan and its
national interests. The people, through both rustic and intellectual wisdom,
understand the national interests. Needless to say, the army supported by the
nation will defend the country against all odds.
The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a
book titled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard. Email: nadirmir13@gmail.com Blog:
wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com
Pakistan-Russia
geopolitics by Nadir Mir
Today, the world
has changed geopolitically in favour of Pakistan. The time has come for
Pakistan-Russian friendship to be solidified. Pakistan’s Chief of Amy Staff
General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s visit to Russia was timely and historic. Even
earlier, Pakistani Air Chief Marshal had visited Russia.
The geopolitics of
Pakistan has often been misunderstood; the time to remedy that has also
arrived. In my book, entitled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard, I have already
projected the nation’s identity.
Pakistan is a
multiregional state and not only South Asian. South Asia is Pakistan’s eastern
linkage that is Punjab and Sindh provinces. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is the link to
Afghanistan and Central Asia, while Kashmir to the northern areas to China and
Central Asia. Balochistan is linked to Iran, Turkey, Gulf - Saudi Peninsula and
Western Asia.
Its location is
globally pivotal. It is located at the crossroads of the historical empires. It
is geo-economically a bridge state and geo-strategically the interposing state
between multi-regions. A friendly Pakistan is a blessing and a hostile Pakistan
is a disaster for any world power with interests in these regions.
To ignore its
geostrategic location, its youth bulge demography soaring towards 200 millions
and its formidable military-nuclear forces is an act of imprudence. The
Americans were the first, Chinese the second and now Russians also appreciate
Pakistan’s geopolitical merits. Simultaneously, New Delhi’s propaganda of
‘Shining India’ is fast eroding. Needless to say, the most critical
geopolitical state actor in these regions is called Pakistan.
Afghanistan: The
US-Nato forces or bulk will be withdrawing from Afghanistan. To establish peace
and stability in the war-torn country, the principal player – that is Pakistan
– needs to be brought on board.
Meanwhile, the
leftover US forces besides interests will be dependent on the Pakistani and
Russian logistic supply routes. Indeed, Pak-Russia coordination can help bring
peace in Afghanistan. Also, the Chinese are increasing their investments and
stakes in it.
Against this
backdrop, instability needs to be reduced in Afghanistan and militancy blocked
from spreading into Central Asia.
The geo-economic
and geo-strategic interests of Russia and Pakistan coincide. Energy should
travel southwards towards Pakistan and drugs stopped from being smuggled
northwards into Russia. Then leftover US- Nato military presence in Afghanistan
do not suit Moscow, Beijing or Islamabad and certainly not Tehran for that
matter.
India, which prays
for US military longevity in Kabul, is at odds with Pakistan, Russia, China and
Iran on that score. Simply because even a small foreign military presence there
will keep Afghanistan on the path of war, rather than peace.
Gwadar and Energy –
Trade, Transit Grid: The Chinese are arriving in Gwadar. The Russians are also
keen to join in. For centuries, the Russians coveted these warm-waters. From my
book, I quote: “The quest for warm-waters is a coveted aim since Czarist
times.......Russia with its firm anchor in Gwadar can support the Asian
hinterland development.” This can join southern Russia to the Arabian Sea.
From the Baltic Sea
near Saint Petersburg, to Archangel in the north and Vladivostok in the east to
the hemmed in Black Seaports, the Russians need warm-waters. The deep seaport Gwadar
could fulfil an old Russian dream. In time, Russia’s gas giant Gazprom will
join the energy grid of Asia at Pakistan’s Gwadar.
Russia through the
Central Asian States can also use the seaport for trade and transit. Gwadar
will bind Pakistan, China, Russia and the Central Asian States. The
geo-economic interests of these state actors increasingly coincide with their
geo-strategic interests.
A Pakistan-Russian
friendship pact could prove to the world that both states stand for peace in
the world. They seek prosperity for their people, share common values of
equality for all nations, freedom for the people, from the Slavic Heartland to
Indus River. Both abhor violence; can jointly fight terrorism, separatism,
drugs and other evils.
Indeed, Russia
under President Vladimir Putin’s leadership is striving for global peace.
Pakistan, unfortunately, has suffered for 11 years due to the war on terror
being waged in Afghanistan. Now, Pakistanis ardently seek an end to this long
and pointless war. For this, Russia and Pakistan can jointly facilitate an
American exit strategy from Afghanistan.
Against this
backdrop, an understanding between Russia, Pakistan, USA and China can help
achieve peace in Afghanistan. This will radiate peaceful waves from the
epicentre of Afghanistan.
Russia and Pakistan
can also help create consensus in the Central Asian and West Asian regions for
peace and geo-economic bonding.
Pakistan-Russian
geopolitical understanding is not directed against anyone. Pakistan can
maintain its old friendship with USA and strategic partnership with China,
while Russia has its traditional relations with India. Still new friendship
between Pakistan and Russia will not only benefit both, but also contribute to
peace and prosperity in the world.
The writer is a
retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global
Chessboard.
Email:
nadirmir13@gmail.com
Blog:
wwwpakistangeopolitics. blogspot.com
Inter Services Intelligence by Nadir Mir
ISI (Inter Services
Intelligence) is Pakistan’s real national asset. It is the nation’s first line
of defence. Globally acknowledged as one of the finest intelligence agencies by
friends and foes alike. Yet in the past couple of years, it has been demonized
at home and abroad. Demonization of ISI is part of the undercover war on
Pakistan.
The history of the
ISI would merit a great book. Suffice it to say that from its infancy and
mushrooming growth, it was indispensable for Pakistan. The aftermath of bloody
partition in 1947, India’s occupation of Kashmir, river water problems and a
lot else was the inheritance of young Pakistan. Born truncated, moth eaten,
denied of its defensible borders with millions of refugees, water problems
aggravated by bellicose, larger India was the environment. A constant Indian
threat needed to be met. Alliance with America, building the Pakistan Army and
creating the ISI were three major steps to restore balance of power.
Every country needs
a spy agency, but Pakistan’s environment demanded something much more than
simply an intelligence agency. Pakistan needed the ISI. Once it was created
besides classic intelligence agency role, its larger mandate meant to
contribute and guard Pakistan’s critical national security.
The political role
which periodically was criticized was mostly during the dictator dispensations
in Pakistan. The after-math has been that dictators have gone but their
infamous legacies persist. The ISI was not responsible per se for installing
dictators in Pakistan. This was more due to political system failure and
over-ambitious adventurers seizing powers. The ISI remained devoted and loyal
to Pakistan and its people regardless of the nature of the regime in power.
Furthermore, to its
credit the ISI was mostly right in its analysis, assessments and advice in the
historical context. The inadequacies were far lesser than the successes.
Two more points
merit considerations:
Firstly, ISI was
almost always dealing with major or bigger powers and contenders. It was
competing in conflict or matching bigger nations and their intelligence agencies
with far greater technological, financial resources. Money is the prime factor
in the intelligence game. Still the ISI was frequently more than a match,
despite its known handicaps.
Secondly, the ISI’s
major successes were strategic even geopolitical and influencing the globe. In
the larger picture the ISI in the past and today is on the winning side. The
animosity of hostile powers to ISI and recent sinister designs thus becomes
apparent.
Ø India
Pakistan’s India
problem was quite simple. India was hostile and also big. It was holding
Kashmir by force. Kashmir without which Pakistan is incomplete, and without
Kashmir river waters unlivable. The ISI monitoring the Indian army mobilization
or build-up was professional and balanced. It was neither alarmist nor
complacent. In essence, ISI neither provoked war nor let the guard down. In all
cases, wars were averted. This contributed to a war avoidance policy which was
in the interest of Pakistan and the world.
ISI has played a
pivotal role in maintaining balance with India. Simply put, despite Indian
preponderance it has not been able to impose its hegemony on Pakistan, the
reason the pro-Indian lobby is full of venom about it.
Ø Afghanistan
ISI was fully
involved due to two wars in Afghanistan.
§ Soviets in
Afghanistan. The Afghan Jihad was supported by Pakistan. ‘The Strategy of
Thousand Cuts’ resulted in Soviet withdrawal. After the fall of Berlin wall, a
piece of the wall was presented to the brilliant DG ISI General Hamid Gul with
the inspiration – ‘One who helped deliver the first blow’. Later the Taliban
entrenched themselves in Afghanistan.
§ US NATO in
Afghanistan. This was a complicated scenario. On the one hand, Pakistan was
non-NATO ally, and on the other India and other hostile forces used Afghanistan
to destabilize Pakistan. The situation has been handled deftly by ISI.
Ø Nuclear –
strategic security
In the 1980s there
was threat of Indo-Israel attack on Kahuta. The threat to Nuclear Pakistan
still persists in other forms. ISI played an outstanding role in defending
Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.
Ø Regional Peace and
Balance
The ISI is striving
for regional peace and balance. It is most ably led by senior officers groomed
in the art. The DG ISI General Zahirul Islam is proving highly effective. His
reported visit to Moscow as a sequel to COAS visit has opened new geopolitical
opportunity for Pakistan. Rekindling of ties with USA also appears probable.
America’s recent exemption of ISI leaders to US laws disappointed India and is
a clear indicator of improving Pakistan-USA relations.
The ISI is not
merely a spy agency but working to provide Pakistan the equalizer while dealing
with greater powers.
Author of the book
“Gwadar on the Global Chessboard” Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com/
The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.
To begin with,
Pakistan needs reforms. Historically all nations demand reforms. Ironically
reforms have been planned and implemented by both evolutionary and
revolutionary political systems in the world. The British evolutionary system
(except for Oliver Cromwell) since Magna Carter till date has reformed itself
continuously and constantly.
The French
Revolution 1789, followed by the ‘Code Napoleon’ implemented reforms and the
laws of France. Even earlier the American revolution of 1775 was actually a war
of independence from the British Crown. What made this a real revolution were
the numerous reforms which followed in the newly formed USA. Today, China and Turkey
plus other successful economic models have reformed themselves. Both are
brotherly states for Pakistan and sources of inspiration.
It is to be
considered that Pakistan’s situation and environment is unique. Firstly,
Pakistan’s geography is superb. It is pivotally located. The confluence of West
Asia, Central Asia, China, South Asia and Indian Ocean is a unique factor. It
has the potential of being a ‘bridge state’ or interposing state between these
multi-regions. The geo-economic potential through Gwadar lies untapped as yet.
Its mineral riches abound (Reko Diq riches alone are estimated at $1 trillion).
Its variety of terrain and weather gives it numerous opportunities.
Secondly,
Pakistan’s demography of 200 million (by 2015) has immense human potential. Its
energetic youth is waiting to be tapped. The Muslim identity and culture
synergize with numerous regions. Thirdly, Pakistan’s other assets include a
long list of tangible or intangible factors.
Fourthly,
Pakistan’s geopolitical situation is improving. Pakistan’s strategic and
brotherly ally China is rising. USA is withdrawing from Afghanistan which
should, however, rekindle friendly relations with America. Pakistan and Russia
are befriending each other as well. Alongside peace talks, trade plans continue
with India. Turkey, which is Pakistan’s fraternal ally, is also a rising power.
However, the
internal dynamics of Pakistan present a different picture. The nation needs to
be united; its political system reformed, economy built and elitism replaced by
a welfare society. Militancy, law and order problems need to be resolved. The
internal scene is often exploited by foreign hostile forces. In any event,
Pakistan’s house needs to be put in order.
The question is
what needs to be done and by whom? Pakistan needs to be reformed but who will
do it? The conventional political parties with status quo mindsets claim it
their democratic right. The change seeking political parties is the second
group. Reform seekers form the third group. More revolutionary forces are
likely to appear on the national scene in future.
Conventional wisdom
holds that a great majority of Pakistani people seek change. Real change can
come only through reform. Moreover, before reforms are carried out the basic
ingredient of unity has to be achieved or else reforms will not be worth the
paper written on.
The political
system of Pakistan has two major problems. It is divisive and elections are
simply money based. A common perception is that an election costs Rs 10 crore
as a conventional estimate. In that case 99.99 percent Pakistanis cannot even
dream of fighting elections. It is election by the elite, of the elite, for the
elite! Even if some from the middle class do make it, the overall system is
elite based. Such a political system is a travesty of democracy. In a true
republic, as per the constitution, Pakistan belongs to all the people of this
country. Two hundred million Pakistanis by 2015 are shareholders and
stakeholders.
Elections are not
the question. Who gets elected is the question. Political reform in Pakistan
must seek to unify not divide people. Difference of opinion does not mean war
within Pakistan. The nation needs peace and unity at home. Secondly, unlimited
money spent on politics must be controlled through legislation, media and
public opinion building. A vibrant, expressive civil society can prove helpful.
If a one dish limit can be placed on wedding meals, some financial limit should
be imposed on election politics. Furthermore, foreign funding sources for politics
in Pakistan need to be scrutinized. The Pakistani middle class must have
opportunity to participate directly in politics. So a more balanced political
order could emerge.
Pakistan’s woes
emanate mainly from political problems. So it is essential that political
reforms are carried out first. Only then will Pakistan be able to emerge as a
great nation!
n The writer is a
retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global
Chessboard.
Email:
nadirmir13@gmail.com
Blog:
wwwpakistangeopolitics.
blogspot.com
Strategic direction of Pakistan Army by Nadir Mir
What is Pakistan
Army’s strategic direction? Is it to focus on western border, internal front/security,
or eastern border? The simple answer to these questions is that existential
threat remains from India and thus the primary focus must be on it.
The new army
doctrine has done well to highlight the concept of deterrence and defence.
Sub-conventional, conventional and nuclear tiers are the facets of warfare
faced by Pakistan today. Yet, the Green Book and Pakistan’s new army doctrine
are being misquoted, misunderstood and even exploited by sinister forces. The
ISPR that is doing a good job needs to clarify again that the threat from India
is increasing in terms of its military build-up, even as Pakistan deals with
the post-9/11 non-state actors.
Western Border: By
2014, the US-Nato forces will be leaving Afghanistan, but the Taliban will be
staying back! As they withdraw, it will be with the realisation that the use of
military force proved inadequate. Also, the Afghan National Army that will be
left on its own may collapse just like the South Vietnam Army did once the
Americans left Vietnam. Even if Kabul does not fall for some time, the Afghan
Taliban will emerge as a dominant force. So Pakistan’s army needs to build
friendly relations with the Afghan Taliban.
Indeed, Pakistan
has no conflict with the Taliban or other Afghans. A negotiated peace in
Afghanistan facilitated by the ISI is in our national interest. After the
withdrawal of the US-Nato troops from Afghanistan and reduced stress on the war
on terror, the Pak Army’s focus on the Afghan border would reduce considerably.
Therefore, logically the western border cannot be the strategic direction of
our army in future.
Internal
Front/Security: Terrorism has wrecked Pakistan’s internal fibre, economy,
terrorised the society, resulted in thousands of deaths and untold tragedies.
To deal with it, the state needs to pursue political, social and economic
reforms. All elements of national power need to be harmonised to achieve
synergetic effect against the terrorist malaise.
For the security
component, an internal security force (perhaps under military command, but a
separate organisation) must be established, trained and equipped. Globally,
several internal security force models are available. The Pakistan Army was not
created, nor is configured for policing duties. It should not be reduced to a glorified,
elevated police force that is, probably, the intention of the state’s internal
and external enemies.
Eastern Border:
India continues to occupy Kashmir, the water issue has aggravated, resource
clash with India rises. It arms feverishly and has become the world’s biggest
arms importer. The Indian military developmental strategy (fleets of
helicopters, high-tech airpower build up, etc) is to give teeth to its ‘Cold
Start’ strategy. But the ‘Cold Start’ or attack within 72 hours of preparation
cannot conquer Pakistan. Even the American view was that it could have mixed
results.
In fact, now the
‘Cold Start’ offensive can lead to catastrophic effect. Pakistan’s defensive
preparations, besides early mobilisation would be augmented by the possible use
of tactical nuclear weapons Nasr against advancing Indian military forces.
This, in turn, can lead to strategic nuclear exchange or an all-out nuclear
war. A nuclear war will destroy the world in general, not just South Asia.
So a nuclear war
must be avoided, which actually means that all wars between Pakistan and India
need to be avoided. Peace is required between the two states. Diplomacy, trade
and travel can prove helpful. However, absence of conflict can be the real
guarantee of peace.
Nevertheless, Kashmir
remains a flashpoint between India and Pakistan, and has to be resolved. A
recent military clash in Kashmir could always escalate. If our army is oriented
towards the western border and embroiled in the internal front, New Delhi will
not even talk about Kashmir, let alone the desire to resolve it.
Peace with India:
Peace talks with India, besides Kashmir, should focus on defence budget limits
and military hardware inductions to ensure strategic balance. Both countries
need to improve the quality of life of their citizens, rather than an
open-ended arms race.
In future, the Pak
Army will have to disengage from the western border, make peace on the internal
front (Taliban, Baloch militants) and refocus on the eastern border.
After 2014,
Pakistan Army will need to redeploy itself. This would add conventional
deterrence to the ‘Cold Start’ and reduce the use of nuclear weapons, even
though Pakistan’s credible nuclear deterrence would be in place.
However, peace with
India can be achieved. For this, Pakistani statecraft should be backed by a
lavishly nuclear armed, professional war fighting military machine called the
Pakistan Army!
The writer is a
retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global
Chessboard. Email: nadirmir13@gmail.com Blog:
wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com
Pakistan: revolution and war by Nadir Mir
Pakistan may face
revolution at home and war on the border. The environment in Pakistan is
charged, to say the least. This is a combination of internal dynamics and
geopolitics, reaching critical mass.
For over a decade,
the Pakistani nation has been squeezed on many fronts. Ever since the war on
terror began, Pakistan’s western border has become a war zone; its economy has
been ruined, inflation gallops and militancy prevails. On top of that Indian
threats mount, even as America plans to withdraw from Afghanistan.
Against this
backdrop, three major dynamics are combining. These include US drawdown from
Afghanistan, Pakistani people’s demand for change and India’s overt hostility
toward Pakistan.
Pakistan
Revolution: In Pakistan, the people have been deprived of the basics of life.
Law and order problems persist in the country. Many people, who joined the long
march, merely wanted electricity, gas, affordable fuel, jobs, etc. Undoubtedly,
they have been robbed and deprived of their basic rights for ages. Still the
brave, frugal and patriotic people maintain great love for their country and
faith in Allah for a bright future of their children.
Pakistan’s main
problem is the corrupt and decadent elite that is self-serving and foreign
influenced. They have robbed the wealth of this country and transferred it
abroad. For this, they were either facilitated or blackmailed by the foreign
powers. In power circles, thus, the elite continued to do their bidding for
geopolitical ends. Resultantly, poor and middle income people are getting
poorer, while the country is getting destabilised.
Certainly, the
elite outlook is parochial and not nationalistic. They have entrenched
themselves in lands, business, bureaucracy and other levers of power. They
monopolise wealth and there is little trickledown effect. This has not only
deprived the masses, but also marginalised and confused them. Every effort has
been made to divide Pakistanis by our internal and external enemies.
But now they are
awaking from their deep slumber. They are uniting for a new Pakistan; they are
seeking their basic rights. The next wave of revolutionary fervour would
obviously be much more radical. Of course, democracy is still the way out, and
the elections must lead to a reformed Pakistan. In future, two hundred million
Pakistanis must be shareholders and stakeholders.
War against
Pakistan: Even as the Americans depart from Afghanistan, India has started
beating the war drum. Pakistan had hoped for peace once the Americans had left
Afghanistan, but the eastern border became hot. After the recent clashes in
Kashmir, the Indian army and air chiefs threatened Pakistan. Even the Indian
Prime Minister has changed his tone towards Pakistan.
The Pakistan Army,
while bravely defending the country, has acted with restraint and prudence.
Surprisingly, despite Islamabad’s sincere efforts for peace, New Delhi is
moving away from it. In spite of the fact that recently no terror strike took
place in India for which Pakistan could be blamed, India intends to increase
military presence along the border.
There are three
basic reasons why India could follow a policy of confrontation with Pakistan.
First, the USA’s military withdrawal from Afghanistan is making it nervous.
Second, India wants to exploit any turmoil in Pakistan before it regains
balance. Thirdly, New Delhi itself was unnerved by the rape protests and the
gloss being removed from ‘Shining India’.
Furthermore,
Kashmir or other problems add to its internal woes. And then there is little
point of being the world’s number one arms importer and having a big army, if
the neighbours are not to be bullied.
Reform Pakistan:
The time to reform Pakistan has arrived. In Pakistan, the elite-based society
must give way to a welfare society. The new political future of Pakistan should
be of a united, wealth-sharing, peace-oriented culture with nationalistic
aspirations. In Turkey, for example, much has been achieved through free and
fair elections, while Egypt represents the much-hyped Tahrir Square model.
However, an elected government can reform the country; if not, then a
revolution may be likely!
Cold Peace with
India: Nuclear armed Pakistan and India must avoid war. By resolving the
Kashmir dispute, permanent peace can be achieved. The Pakistani government
should neither confront India, nor appease it. A middle course will be ‘cold
peace’, which means “peace but not friendship.” Friendly relations, however,
can be maintained between the two countries once the core issues are resolved.
Pakistan’s army is
well prepared, but India can miscalculate. Spending billions of dollars for
buying more arms or Rafale fighter aircrafts after the Kashmir clash is
suggestive of New Delhi’s militarist intent.
In addition to enhanced
nuclear deterrence, Pakistani army needs to build up conventional deterrence,
even while avoiding an arms race. This implies peace on the western border and
internal front to refocus in the east. While pursuing peace with India,
Pakistan must be fully prepared to deter war.
Having said that,
the Kashmir border escalation has been controlled this time. But will the war
be avoided next time?
The writer is a
retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global
Chessboard.
Email: nadirmir13@gmail.com
Blog:
wwwpakistangeopolitics.
blogspot.com
Strengthen Pak-US friendship by Nadir Mir
Pakistan and
America were and, perhaps, still are friends. Nevertheless, mostly this
relationship has been a roller coaster ride, especially after the Afghan war
that is the major cause of instability in Pakistan. Consequently, the economy
is collapsing, militancy is increasing impacting Pak-US relations. Despite
geopolitical bondage Islamabad and Washington blamed each other for it. Now
with America’s planned exit from Afghanistan, there is a need to strengthen
Pak-US friendship.
The US should be
seen by Islamabad as a friend after its forces leave the neighbourhood, and
Washington needs to get rid of its obsessive thoughts about Pakistan’s nuclear
weapons. It needs to realise that a strong, stable and economically vibrant
nuclear Pakistan is required to bring about a nuclear balance in South Asia; it
poses no threat to anyone.
Against this
backdrop, Secretary of State John Kerry’s pragmatic and amiable views about
Pakistan are a good omen. Hopefully, friendly relations with the US will
develop in the future.
Pak-US Geopolitics:
America is a global power, but also a non-Eurasian power. Washington has a long
list of geopolitical concerns. Afghanistan should be on the wane, while Middle
East and Africa are rising issues. The Afghan war has lasted too long.
President Barack Obama, thus, has taken a bold and wise decision to drawdown
the forces Afghanistan. Pakistan can facilitate America in its exit strategy
and help stabilise the war-torn country after the occupation forces leave.
Having said that,
Mali and Algeria and Africa at large would now be the US-Nato forces’ major
concern. The turbulence in North Africa, West Africa and larger Middle East is
linked. After all, the geographically and economically north and west Africa is
closer to Europe than Afghanistan, and a greater concern of the western world.
Moreover, the
United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM or AFRICOM) was established to ensure
American interests. Now, Washington needs to outsource its security concerns to
Islamabad to achieve a negotiated peace in Afghanistan. For this purpose, the
Pak-US relationship should be improved.
Pakistan seeks
peace at home and peace abroad. Washington must respect the aspirations of
Pakistani people and coordinate with the army and ISI for a peaceful Pakistan
and Afghanistan. The ISI has greatly contributed to regional balance. All this
is to America’s advantage so that it exits Afghanistan without worrying about
leaving behind an explosive region. The reality is that Pakistan’s army would
be the only professional, powerful military force between River Oxus and River
Sutlej after the US has left Afghanistan.
All things
considered, Pak-US geopolitical interests should coincide in future, only if
Washington respects our national interests.
Pak-US
Geo-economics: America’s geo-strategy should give way to geo-economics in
Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Central Asian Region.
The Central Asian
energy and mineral resources can be easily piped through existing conduits
through Afghanistan to the deep Gwadar seaport on the Arabian Sea. Pakistan is
already coordinating with China and, perhaps, even Russia for geo-economic
confluence. Yet, this is not a zero-sum game.
The USA can also be
an economic partner, or part of a greater consortium. Energy and transit
highways from Central Asia, the old silk route (China-Pakistan), and even the
new silk route (Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) are all possible only through
Pakistan. Therefore, it can serve as a bridge between the regions of Central
Asia, West Asia, China and South Asia. This can be achieved in an environment
of peace. Otherwise, Pakistan has the potential of acting as an interposing
state.
Future Geopolitics:
With Iraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s re-election, the chances of
Israel-Iran conflict may rise. This may embroil the USA even if by default,
while North Korea and USA’s relations can worsen. It seems that America is
going to remain busy even after it departs from Afghanistan.
Pak-Afghan
friendship and geo-economics ties are keys to regional peace. The training of
the Afghan forces by Pakistan should go a long way in achieving the quest for
stability. Islamabad can bring Kabul and Taliban on the negotiating table. On
the whole, America, Pakistan, China and Russia can help achieve lasting peace
in Afghanistan.
As Indian ambitions
increase, there may be a divergence of interest with the US. Washington has
leverage with Russia, China, the EU and other parts of the globe. On India, the
main leverage is Pakistan. No matter how much New Delhi talks of ‘Shining
India’, it would remain embroiled with Pakistan until it settles the Kashmir
dispute.
Even as Israel, and
even USA, come in conflict with Iran, a moderating and war-avoiding role can be
played by Pakistan. Washington can benefit from Pakistan’s diplomacy that is
not just limited to Afghanistan. By the same token, Washington should
discourage centrifugual tendencies in Balochistan. Indeed, a united, peaceful,
prosperous and nuclear-armed Pakistan is in the interest of regional balance
and American efforts for a stable world.
The writer is a
retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global
Chessboard. Email: nadirmir13@gmail.com Blog:
wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com
American influence in the Middle East slipping
September 29, 2012 |
YouTube, which is owned by Google, has refused to take down the
video. Instead it decided merely to block the video from being accessed in the
countries where protests have turned violent.
YouTube released a statement saying; “This video, which is widely
available on the web, is clearly within our guidelines and so will stay on
YouTube. However, given the very difficult situation in Libya and Egypt we have
temporarily restricted access in both countries.”
While the film will still be shown around the world, because of
YouTube’s refusal to take it down, some countries are planning to filter out
the video or ban the website completely.
One of those countries is Russia; it has been talking about
blocking the video to help prevent the damage it has already caused from
spreading further. Retired Pakistani General and author of the book ‘Gwadar on
the Global Chessboard’, Nadir Mir told The Voice of Russia “as Russia plans on
banning sites hosting this film, they are heading in the right direction.
Russia is rightly sensitive to its Muslim population’s sentiments and also
those in Central Asia.”
As other countries are currently looking into these bans, American
interests have suffered because of the film, but it seems America may still be
able to pick up the pieces and salvage its image.
America will need to start promoting peace and, according to Nadir
Mir, “America can make its embassies safe, not by adding walls and layers of
security but by getting back to pure diplomatic work. The American embassies
should be the abode of the State Department and not infested with every kind of
special force and military contractor. In addition, America needs to respect
Islam and Muslims instead of demonising them”.
This will be a gigantic task for America to take on; Nadir Mir
also added that the film was just one more nail in the coffin of America’s good
relations in the Middle East, where there is ever-increasing anti-US sentiment.
“The American image was already tarnished over decades of wars and empty
promises. In fact, the film was one more catalyst of hate and there may be more
to come”, he added.
The fact that America’s influence is slipping in the Middle East
can be shown by the fact that both Iran and Israel are becoming increasingly
defiant of America’s calls for peace. Nadir Mir also hinted at the fact that
the only player that might help is Russia. “This potential war will not only
become a regional conflict quickly, but might even possibly lead to a World War
III situation. Moscow’s efforts for peace must be appreciated, more than ever
before.”
The short-term damage that the blasphemous film has inflicted on
the American image seems to be expanding into longer-term problems. Nadir Mir
believes that America needs start backing off and should not provoke Muslim
feelings any further. He also stated that President Obama has done a good job
so far at just that. “It would not be prudent for America to provoke things
further. In fact, President Obama’s restraint is seen as a prudent act as
things begin to boil over.” He told The Voice of Russia.
The road to recovery will be a massive undertaking for America,
which is now faced with a huge damage control exercise. The challenge of
regaining a certain influence in the Middle East might be harder than it
sounds. America’s decisions will not only be essential on the path to peace but
may also prove to be too much to take on. –Voice of Russia
Target - Pakistan Army
Apparently, Pakistan Army is the target. It is being assailed by
friends and foes alike. The army, which has stood like a rock in the country’s
defence, is the hurdle for its enemies. Our enemies believe that by weakening
the army and demonising the ISI,Pakistancan be denuclearised and balkanised.
This is, indeed, the illogic of imperialist-hegemonic powers. Yet, more
astounding is the role ofPakistan’s civilian-political leadership, who seeks to
shrink the army’s space in national affairs. Even while lamenting the ‘last
military dictator’, it is the army that is facing the gauntlet. A case in point
is the alleged NLC scam.
The ISPR issued succinct comments on the subject. On the NLC
issue, in essence, the army took some unprecedented steps. The matter was
logically and legally against these retired senior officers. Even while due
process of law is under way, misperceptions are being created that should be
dispelled. The fact is that the ISPR has done a good job in clarifying the mist
and the matter should not be politicised any longer. Even local newspapers have
elucidated the ISPR’s viewpoint clearly and convincingly. It is true that there
should be no holy cows and the law must take its course. By the same token,
military systems all over the world also resort to institutional actions when
required. In any event, premature disinformation is not warranted till matters
have reached their logical conclusion.
The army’s image may improve due to legal transparency, yet it
should not become a precedent for witch-hunt. The officers of various ranks
over the last decades have been performing multiple duties. These include,
besides basic military duties, martial laws, involvement in civil affairs,
intelligence tasks and, more recently, anti-militant operations. Opening a
Pandora’s Box of alleged complaints will lead to lowering the military’s
morale, besides other adverse affects. Except for multibillion scams or gross
violation of the Constitution, other matters should be left to the army’s own
internal accountability. In any event, selective accountability - whether of
the army, politicians or any other group or institution - will do more harm
than good. Reportedly, billions of dollars are stacked in overseas bank
accounts by incumbents of previous regime. Accountability for all should be
acceptable to all.
The issue is not that the army is above accountability; nor the
civilian supremacy is being challenged. The real issue is whatever mistakes
were made by it (all armies make mistakes, including Napoleon’s Grand Armée,
Hitler’s Wehrmacht and even US post-RMA hyper forces etc), they are being mixed
up with anti-Pakistan stratagems of foreign foes. While
historicallyPakistanfaces multifaceted challenges, the recent surge in
information warfare onslaught is daunting.
An unrelenting media campaign has been launched in foreign lands
and withinPakistanagainst our national interests. The foreign hostile agenda is
mostly geopolitically driven. The local component is either foreign sponsored
or misguided and, in some cases, simply frustrated with the prevailing national
order. Frequently though, the foreign plus local tirade is directed at the
army.
ISI: This fine institution (among the best in the world) deftly
defending the nation, and most ably led, is the ire ofPakistan’s enemies. The
non-state actors, Balochistan, the militants to the cyber warfare in India etc,
are all bogey of the demonisation campaign launched againstPakistan’s first
line of defence.
Nukes:Pakistan’s strides in nuclear warfare haunt those who
harbour animosity for this country. Of late,Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapon
NASR with its 60km range, reflecting miniaturisation expertise and deterrence
enhancer is the phobia of foreign think tanks.
Balochistan: The solution to Balochistan’s problems lies
withinPakistan(inclusive of Baloch viewpoint) and not with the UN or anybody
else. While Balochistan merits urgent resolution, foreign meddling only spoils
the issue.
Untouchables: Foreign agents have become untouchables. Those who
betrayPakistan, work for foreign powers and break local laws are being
projected akin to heroes. After the May incident in Abbottabad, for example, Dr
Afridi’s CIA sponsored polio campaign had resulted in an anti-polio campaign.
Next, Hussain Haqqani after the memo debacle was offered succour byUSA.
The need of the hour is national unity. Whatever shortcomings are
present within the national system or grievances with any individual or group,
they should not be directed at the army. Serious issues should neither be
dogmatically preached, nor slanderously projected via media. They demand proper
knowledge, analysis, and presentation that should not forsake the national
cause.
The Pakistan Army has heroically fought against multiple
adversaries, even in overwhelming odds defendedPakistan. Its prestige is the
prestige of the nation. All citizens must support the army in its sacred
duties. It, in turn, must remain professional, apolitical, nationalistic and
brave. It should further distance itself from the infamous legacy of the
previous regime; the challenges ahead demand these virtues from the army. The
Pakistan Army supported by the Pakistani nation can weather all
storms.Pakistan’s real enemy is outsidePakistan, even if they harbour quislings
within.
The geopolitical winds favourPakistan:Middle Eastis ablaze with
anti- Americanism in which the Americans will be embroiled even further. The Americans
will be leaving with the bulk of their forces fromAfghanistan, resulting in
reduction ofPakistan’s destabilisation. The Chinese will be arriving in Gwadar
and bondingPakistanin an even tighter geopolitical economic embrace. The
Russians will bePakistan’s new friend. The visit of Pakistan Air Chief,
followed by the COAS toMoscowand President Putin inIslamabadopens new
geopolitical options.
Pakistan Army remains determined and prepared to defend the
country. The nation remains prepared to support it!
The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a book tittled
Gwadar on the Global Chessboard. Blog: wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com
Windows to Russia
Dear President Vladimir Putin,
First of all congratulations for being elected as President of
Russia.
This is a historical period for Russia and critical for World
Peace.
My brief introduction
is Brigadier Nadir Mir (Retired) from Pakistani Army. Now I am a writer,
geopolitician and working for world peace. Some of my articles have been
published in Pravda ru and Windows to Russia. In my book ‘Gwadar on the Global
Chessboard’ I have urged the need for Russian cooperation at Gwadar. I am a
strong believer of Russian – Pakistani friendship. Your dynamic and strong
leadership is required by both Russia and the world. Your peaceful geopolitical
efforts are restoring world balance. The people of the planet yearn for peace
and prosperity and look up to you as a world leader.
In Pakistan, we seek
very close relations with Russia. Your visit to Pakistan is being eagerly
awaited and I would like to work for Russian – Pakistani friendship.
In the end I pray for
your good health and prosperity for Russia.
With best wishes and highest regards
Brigadier Nadir Mir
Aug 9, 2012 14:09 Moscow
Time
|
“The
Drone strikes are not only an attack on land but also on Pakistan’s
sovereignty. They lead to extremism and radicalism, as many innocent people get
killed or injured. Pakistan has regularly warned the USA to end Drone strikes.
The attacks have resulted in increasing Anti-Americanism. The strikes are
counterproductive, they help produce more militants then they kill.” Brigadier
Nadir Mir told The Voice of Russia.
However,
the general also believes that America and Pakistan can rekindle their ties, if
only to a certain extent. He states that bringing peace to Afghanistan is in a
great interest for both countries.
“Pakistan
and America can rekindle their ties to an extent; the strain in ties is due to
US War in Afghanistan spilling over into Pakistan. Efforts should be made for
negotiated peace in Afghanistan, a stable but unoccupied Afghanistan is in the interest
of Pakistan, USA, Russia, China and everybody else.” He added.
Will
making a pact with Russia be fruitful for Pakistan? Brigadier Nadir Mir
certainly thinks so. “Russia and Pakistan can help create consensus in the
entire Central Asian – West Asian regions for peace and Geo-economic bonding.”
Pakistan
clearly is looking to become a major economic player in the world as it aims to
bring in support from China and other neighboring countries.
China
has already spent hundreds of millions in developing Pakistan, creating new
trade routes into their own country as well as spreading their own influence.
According
to Brigadier Nadir Mir, Russia is the obvious step in creating a new world
power for Pakistan. “By joining a pact with Pakistan, Russia and China can
establish an economic power house.”
Brigadier
Nadir Mir also states “Pakistan is located at the crossroads of empires.
Geo-economically it is a ‘Bridge State’ between multi regions,
geo-strategically; it is the ‘Interposing State’.”
According
to Brigadier Nadir Mir, America’s war is not the only reason for Pakistan
seeking stronger ties with Russia. The fact of the matter is, America is an
ocean away, and Russia is logically a powerful neighbor that they wish to
embrace.
“For
decades Pakistan has been an American ally which is oceans away, Russia is much
closer. Moscow and Islamabad need to build a stronger relationship.” He added.
No
matter how we look at this, America seems to be losing its influence around the
world. As China and Russia pick up the pieces, America will be trying hard to
rekindle any ties it had with Pakistan as well as other countries in the Middle
East and South Asia.
Soldier to Scholar
By D.S. Hurrell
Dallas College
Q1: Your book ‘Gwadar on
the Global Chessboard’ outlined the economic and strategic potential this port
has for Pakistan.
For those who have not read your book, could you elaborate on this strategic
port?Dallas College
A1: A vision of the planet’s pivotal geography in fusion with
Pakistan is the concept– a geo-economical concept, potentially becoming one of
the most important city in the world. “Gwadar is the
next Dubai”. Many think-tanks are of the opinion that the imminent
control of the Chinese spells the creation of a new Dubai in Pakistan. Or as
the American author Robert D Kaplan writes, “At the intersection of Empires,
the Port City of Gwadar could become the new silk route nexus”. My aims of
writing this book: ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ are Firstly
•To project Gwadar’s great potential – a major economic alternative, to begging for funds.
•Gwadar Concept is not limited to the Mekran Coast. It is in fact an Economy Changer for all of Pakistan.
•To project Gwadar’s great potential – a major economic alternative, to begging for funds.
•Gwadar Concept is not limited to the Mekran Coast. It is in fact an Economy Changer for all of Pakistan.
A Bonanza for Baluchistan.
Secondly
•China the world’s second biggest economy needs to be fully linked to Gwadar.
•Pakistan needs an economic and cultural bonding with multi-regions. This includes China, Central Asian States, Russia, West Asia- Iran, Saudi Arabia – Gulf States, Turkey and Africa.
Secondly
•China the world’s second biggest economy needs to be fully linked to Gwadar.
•Pakistan needs an economic and cultural bonding with multi-regions. This includes China, Central Asian States, Russia, West Asia- Iran, Saudi Arabia – Gulf States, Turkey and Africa.
Thirdly
•Gwadar though vital has been neglected – victim of negative politics and hostile Geopolitics.
•Baluchistan’s problems (Exploited by India and foreign powers) demand attention and resolution.
•The Geo-Political indicators favour Gwadar Development.
The Gwadar Concept
•The Global Chessboard is dynamic and evolving. Global economic balance is shifting. Pakistan should initiate a pro-active Geo-economic policy.
•Optimize Pakistan’s Multiregional Geography for Geo-economics gains. Pakistan’s economic bonding with China, Central Asian States – Russia, West Asia – Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Gulf States and Africa.
•Gwadar Port is concept based. The concept is to synergize Pakistan’s multiregional (Geo-Strategic) location, Open Sea Board for Oil – Gas Pipelines, Energy Centre, Transshipment, Transit, Trade, and Finance Generation.
•Gwadar is the Future of Pakistan.
•Gwadar though vital has been neglected – victim of negative politics and hostile Geopolitics.
•Baluchistan’s problems (Exploited by India and foreign powers) demand attention and resolution.
•The Geo-Political indicators favour Gwadar Development.
The Gwadar Concept
•The Global Chessboard is dynamic and evolving. Global economic balance is shifting. Pakistan should initiate a pro-active Geo-economic policy.
•Optimize Pakistan’s Multiregional Geography for Geo-economics gains. Pakistan’s economic bonding with China, Central Asian States – Russia, West Asia – Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Gulf States and Africa.
•Gwadar Port is concept based. The concept is to synergize Pakistan’s multiregional (Geo-Strategic) location, Open Sea Board for Oil – Gas Pipelines, Energy Centre, Transshipment, Transit, Trade, and Finance Generation.
•Gwadar is the Future of Pakistan.
Q2: Is there a link between
unrest in Balochistan, the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline and the Gwadar Port?
A2: There is a clear
Geopolitical link between unrest in Balochistan, the Iran Pakistan gas pipeline
and the Gwadar Port.
Firstly, the Balochistan unrest is Pakistan’s internal problem. This issue must be solved as per Pakistani (including Baloch) aspirations but without foreign meddling. Secondly, reportedly, USA is chiseling a West Asian Strategy. This includes war against Iran and destabilizing Pakistani Balochistan and Irani Seastan. In my article ‘Balochistan and Geopolitics’ published in Pravda ru (Moscow) and Nation (Pakistan), I had highlighted some of these aspects. The Americans want to sever Pakistan Iran (including gas pipeline), block China from reaching Indian Ocean at Gwadar. With Pakistan’s new friendship with Russia, even curtail Moscow’s influence at Gwadar in future. Recent American writings betray their Geo strategic designs. One article is quoted below:
‘To counter what China is doing in Pakistan, the United States should play hardball by supporting the movement for an independent Baluchistan along the Arabian Sea and working with Baluch insurgents to oust the Chinese from their budding naval base at Gwadar. Beijing wants its inroads into Gilgit and Baltistan to be the first step on its way to an Arabian Sea outlet at Gwadar.’
Selig S. Harrison “Chinese Cozy Up to the Pakistanis”
The Indians have been trying to destabilize Balochistan for ages. If India was not so hostile, it would have remained in the Iran – Pakistan – India (IPI) gas pipeline project, despite American pressure. A quote below is self-evident; Stable Pakistan Not in India’s Interest
Firstly, the Balochistan unrest is Pakistan’s internal problem. This issue must be solved as per Pakistani (including Baloch) aspirations but without foreign meddling. Secondly, reportedly, USA is chiseling a West Asian Strategy. This includes war against Iran and destabilizing Pakistani Balochistan and Irani Seastan. In my article ‘Balochistan and Geopolitics’ published in Pravda ru (Moscow) and Nation (Pakistan), I had highlighted some of these aspects. The Americans want to sever Pakistan Iran (including gas pipeline), block China from reaching Indian Ocean at Gwadar. With Pakistan’s new friendship with Russia, even curtail Moscow’s influence at Gwadar in future. Recent American writings betray their Geo strategic designs. One article is quoted below:
‘To counter what China is doing in Pakistan, the United States should play hardball by supporting the movement for an independent Baluchistan along the Arabian Sea and working with Baluch insurgents to oust the Chinese from their budding naval base at Gwadar. Beijing wants its inroads into Gilgit and Baltistan to be the first step on its way to an Arabian Sea outlet at Gwadar.’
Selig S. Harrison “Chinese Cozy Up to the Pakistanis”
The Indians have been trying to destabilize Balochistan for ages. If India was not so hostile, it would have remained in the Iran – Pakistan – India (IPI) gas pipeline project, despite American pressure. A quote below is self-evident; Stable Pakistan Not in India’s Interest
“Baluchistan will
achieve independence. For New Delhi this opens a window of opportunity to
ensure that Gwadar Port does not fall into the hands of the Chinese. In this
there is synergy between the political objective of the Americans and the
Indians. Our goodwill existing in Baluchistan requires intelligent leveraging.
……………………….. Today the collapse of Pakistan as a state is almost certain
……………………….. looking ahead, New Delhi should formulate an appropriate strategy
for ‘Post Pakistan Scenario’ to secure India’s interest in Central Asia.”
Bharat Verma ,Editor, Indian “Defence Review“
Bharat Verma ,Editor, Indian “Defence Review“
The fact is that there is
no need for confrontation. Pakistan seeks peace and prosperity of which Gwadar
is one manifestation. If the Chinese and Americans can do business in Dubai,
USA and China, then why not at Gwadar? A global consortium can be proposed by
Pakistan, addressing US concerns and Chinese requirements. As my book ‘Gwadar
on the Global Chessboard’ highlights that Gwadar is not a zero sum game. Gwadar
can connect South Africa to China, Russia through the shortest routes and can
bring peace and prosperity to dozens of nations. All can benefit from this gift
of nature.
Q3: We have seen Property
prices in Kabul drop as a result of the expectations that chaos will follow the
withdrawal of American forced from Afghanistan in 2014. How do you think the
withdrawal will affect Pakistan?
A3: The fall of property prices in Kabul may be an indicator of future
events. In fact Afghanistan needs peace like the rest of the world. Consider
the fact that the last three decades have seen only war. First the Soviets then
the Muhahideen, later Taliban and now Americans/NATO. The Americans are
withdrawing but plan to leave behind between 10,000
and 30,000 troops. (Mostly
Special Operation Forces). The war will continue, at some level. The
Afghanistan War will not end till all foreign military forces withdraw and the
majority Pakhtoons (including Taliban) are part of the solution. This implies a
negotiated settlement, which leads to durable peace. This is possible but only
if Pakistan is the peace maker and sponsor. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan
and peace prospects are ideal for Pakistan. A tiny fraction of the elite has
prospered from the Afghan War. The rest of Pakistan has suffered enormously
from the war next door. Over 40,000 causalities estimated 80 billion dollars in
losses suffered, National fiber weakened and Pakistan destabilized. US Drone
strikes act as a catalyst for extremism and radicalism. Therefore, in essence
US military withdrawal followed by peace should be very welcome in Pakistan and
the region.
A new leaf should be turned. US Geo strategy should be replaced by Geo-economics. Landlocked Afghanistan should be linked to Pakistan’s – Gwadar. The Americans are welcome as investors – businessman (they are even welcome in Vietnam where they fought a long war). Pakistan and America were friends before the US War in Afghanistan. They should remain friends after America leaves Afghanistan.
A new leaf should be turned. US Geo strategy should be replaced by Geo-economics. Landlocked Afghanistan should be linked to Pakistan’s – Gwadar. The Americans are welcome as investors – businessman (they are even welcome in Vietnam where they fought a long war). Pakistan and America were friends before the US War in Afghanistan. They should remain friends after America leaves Afghanistan.
Q4: A lot of mention is
made of Pakistan’s weaknesses, the enormous strains pulling the country apart.
My impression of Karachi when I visited in 2011 was that of a city under siege,
perhaps a symbol of the country as a whole. Can you tell us about Pakistan’s
strengths?
A4: Pakistan’s strength is the most pertinent question, but often
neglected. Thank you for asking it.
•Firstly Pakistan’s Geography
Its location is super. The location is globally pivotal. If North of it Is the famed Mackinder’s Heartland, itself a part of Spykman’s Rimland. It is located on the Cross Road of Empires. It joins Central Asia, West Asia, South Asia and Indian Ocean. Geo economically it is a ‘Bridge State’ between multi regions, Geo strategically, it is the ‘Interposing State’. West of it is oil rich Gulf, North West energy rich Caspian Sea/Caucasus. River waters, glaciers in the north, Arabian Sea – Indian Ocean in the South.
For a medium sized state, it has all kind of terrain, deserts plains, coast, hilly, snow mountain regions and all four weathers. Its natural treasures abound (though mostly untapped or utilized so far). Reko Dik Gold Reserve in Baluchistan estimated over $ 1 trillion. Thar Coal Reserves in Sindh have energy estimated equal to Saudi Arabia – Iran oil energy output combined. A lot else to follow. Only Kashmir and its river waters occupied by India is the problem.
•Firstly Pakistan’s Geography
Its location is super. The location is globally pivotal. If North of it Is the famed Mackinder’s Heartland, itself a part of Spykman’s Rimland. It is located on the Cross Road of Empires. It joins Central Asia, West Asia, South Asia and Indian Ocean. Geo economically it is a ‘Bridge State’ between multi regions, Geo strategically, it is the ‘Interposing State’. West of it is oil rich Gulf, North West energy rich Caspian Sea/Caucasus. River waters, glaciers in the north, Arabian Sea – Indian Ocean in the South.
For a medium sized state, it has all kind of terrain, deserts plains, coast, hilly, snow mountain regions and all four weathers. Its natural treasures abound (though mostly untapped or utilized so far). Reko Dik Gold Reserve in Baluchistan estimated over $ 1 trillion. Thar Coal Reserves in Sindh have energy estimated equal to Saudi Arabia – Iran oil energy output combined. A lot else to follow. Only Kashmir and its river waters occupied by India is the problem.
•The second is demography
By 2015 Pakistan’s population will be 200 million of which 65 % or 130 million will be youth. This energetic – nationalist youth bulge is Pakistan’s future and strength. Pakistan’s national character includes ‘faith in Islam’, ‘love for Pakistan’, ‘courage and spirit of freedom’.
•Thirdly, Military and Nuclear Strength
Pakistan’s Military is strong, professional and motivated to defend Pakistan. Its nuclear strength is robust and sophisticated. This is to ensure deterrence as Pakistan believes in peaceful resolutions of all disputes. Pakistan cannot be conquered by anyone.
By 2015 Pakistan’s population will be 200 million of which 65 % or 130 million will be youth. This energetic – nationalist youth bulge is Pakistan’s future and strength. Pakistan’s national character includes ‘faith in Islam’, ‘love for Pakistan’, ‘courage and spirit of freedom’.
•Thirdly, Military and Nuclear Strength
Pakistan’s Military is strong, professional and motivated to defend Pakistan. Its nuclear strength is robust and sophisticated. This is to ensure deterrence as Pakistan believes in peaceful resolutions of all disputes. Pakistan cannot be conquered by anyone.
Q5: What advice would you
give the young future leaders of Pakistan?
A5: My advice to young
future leaders of Pakistan is as under:
•Firstly, unite all Pakistanis on one nationalist platform and achieve consensus for national interests.
•Secondly, a reformist agenda to rid Pakistan of major ills. Build Gwadar and revive a national economic cycle.
•Thirdly, a pro people welfare system for ensuring decent basic living to the nation.
•Fourthly, stressing on all forms of education for human resource development of the youth bulge.
•Last yet not least, ensuring national sovereignty and security at all costs.
Pakistan Zindabad!
•Firstly, unite all Pakistanis on one nationalist platform and achieve consensus for national interests.
•Secondly, a reformist agenda to rid Pakistan of major ills. Build Gwadar and revive a national economic cycle.
•Thirdly, a pro people welfare system for ensuring decent basic living to the nation.
•Fourthly, stressing on all forms of education for human resource development of the youth bulge.
•Last yet not least, ensuring national sovereignty and security at all costs.
Pakistan Zindabad!
Brigadier Nadir Mir author
of ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ is a veteran of the Pakistan Army.
His blog is Pakistan and Geopolitics (wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com/) and his next book Geopolitik Pakistan (A Global and Futuristic Outlook) is being published
Nuclear Discourse (A Nuclear Discussion at Two Tiers – South Asia and Global) is being revised and updated.
His blog is Pakistan and Geopolitics (wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com/) and his next book Geopolitik Pakistan (A Global and Futuristic Outlook) is being published
Nuclear Discourse (A Nuclear Discussion at Two Tiers – South Asia and Global) is being revised and updated.
The Global Anti Elite Revolution
Once the Bastille was stormed on 14 July 1789 in Paris,
the French king Louis XVI was informed that it was not a revolt, but a
revolution. This is what the unfolding scenario appears like today. What
differentiates the present and apparently future crisis is not chaotic civil
strife – rioting but idea and concept based spontaneous radical game change.
There are a number of issues involved here, but a central one is ‘Equality’. The
monopolistic elites in most of the world control bulk of the wealth, power and
resources leaving a paltry or marginal part for the masses or the majority. The
traditional have nots are being joined by a large segment of the middle classes
against an elite culture increasingly demonized in the information age. In the
Middle East besides economic equality, political – social cultural equality
drives the protesters. In USA and EU, it is more to do with economic equality
as political, socio, cultural restrictions are relatively few.
The French Revolution was followed by numerous in Europe
of 1848, once the Metternich conservative order was challenged, in multiple
states. While Revolutions were a historical occurrence the Russian 1917,
Chinese 1949, Iranian 1979 became more notable on geopolitical account.
Hitler’s Nazi Revolution entered history books with the fall of Berlin 1945.
Francis Fukuyama (in The End of History) proclaimed the
death of communism and victory of capitalism. Today capitalism is under attack
in its own bastion. If the Soviet Communist order lasted from 1917 till 1991,
the capitalists’ victory over Marxist Leninists – appears short lived also.
From 1991 — 2011, a twenty years period was the glory of capitalism. Though of
course ‘Pure unbridled Capitalism’ will be under severe strain in future. That
this has happened in the West should be no surprise. Karl Mark a German,
writing ‘Das Capital’, had clearly Germany in mind, and of course the classic
‘Mother of all Revolutions’ 1979 was French!
The Marxist Revolution was initially meant for rapidly
industrializing ‘Deutschland’ rather than serfdom based ‘Mother Russia’. Irony
of history, Geopolitics and First World War etc helped usher March and October
1917 Revolutions in Moscow. Germany was still revolution prone, but the rise of
Hitler deflected it into nationalism and racialism. Still the word Nazi stood
for National Socialists!
Today Revolution is globally becoming a house hold word.
USA, EU and large parts of the world will experience radical – revolutionary
upheaval. The most ironic part of the tale is that America may be ripe for a
Second Revolution. The First American Revolution, commenced as the war of
independence from the British Crown, followed by numerous reforms that followed
and later expansion that created the modern United States. There are several
reasons for the Second American Revolution. The US economy is in decline; at
least its share of Global GDP is shrinking. Washington’s endless wars and
outrageous expenses could put the most notorious spend thrift in history to
shame. Wealth within USA is monopolized by the elite. So long as the lower and
lower middle classes were in the financial comfort zone, no one thought of
‘Occupy Wall Street’ movement. Now Ron Paul himself talks of Revolution.
By 2020 China’s economy may supersede USA. Washington’s
policy of containing Russia (with the world’s largest land space) and China
(the world’s future largest economy) may not be doable. In fact, America’s
super expensive wars of the previous decade have already ruined its economy.
The cumulative effect of all this would inspire the good hearted, charity
giving, God fearing, amiable folks in America for a real change. Amazingly
Washington supported the ‘Arab Spring’ movement, which was in fact the right
thing to do, but the chickens are coming home to roost! (A Libyan Revolutionary
banner said it all – ‘today Libya, tomorrow Wall Street’). As per one analysis
USA is among the most unequal societies.
The environment on the European continent is even more
bleak for the present economic order. The European economic malaise, EU
interstate disparities are further aggravating its crisis. The Euro Crisis is
not simply a financial matter. It also has nationalistic, socio – cultural
facets at work. Germany and Greece have not only different economies but also
have different people. EU faces both intra and inter European economic issues.
EU may manage its issues but the future remains uncertain. After all Europe was
the birth place of modern revolutions and revolutionaries. The word radical,
recently reflective of militants – terrorists may be realigned with traditional
anarchists and revolutionaries.
The situation in countries like India – Pakistan and
others are even worse in terms of equality. India with its inequality based
ethos, may not see a revolution, but rather may face civil war and turmoil. The
Brahman inspired Delhi order would strive to crush all such movements or term
them as ‘terrorists’! (the most popular word in India). The world’s richest and
poorest people live in India. Even while India wastes money as the world’s
biggest arms importer, hundreds of millions of Indians live in abject poverty.
There are more hungry people in eight Indian states than all of Africa. The
Maoists and other revolutionaries are fighting the Indian system and have been
termed as the biggest internal threat by Delhi.
Pakistan of course is getting ripe for a revolution,
because a corrupt, foreign influenced and incompetent elite monopolies most
wealth and delivers little. People are losing faith in an unresponsive
political system in Pakistan. The economic meltdown further emboldens
militants, anarchists and miscreants. A reform revolution is the only solution
to Pakistan’s predicament. A new welfare state model and not monopolistic elite
based system is the need of the hour
The world yearns for peace and prosperity. An end to wars
and fair distribution of wealth within nations and societies would lead to a
better world. This may have sounded utopia yesterday but is the road map for
tomorrow.
The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.
Geopolitics of Peace is an endeavour by Nadir Mir.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Balochistan and geopolitics
By: Nadir Mir, March 02, 2012
Recently, a resolution was passed in the US Congress to divide Pakistan and carve out an ‘independent Balochistan’. With this, an old neocon dream was revived. This time the so-called globalists and propagandists, masquerading as human right activists, are the cheerleaders. Against this backdrop, Colonel Ralph Peter’s map of the ‘New Middle East’ truncating, balkanising every country - Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan - was reproduced. Despite the fact that it was scorned and reviled even at the time of its earlier exhibition. It seems that the neocons and influential globalists of America desperately want to initiate World War III. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s interview, If you can’t hear the drums of war, you must be deaf, with Alfred Heinz on November 27, 2011, is a clear expression of this desire. The neocon-globalist geopolitical wish list - the rationale for the so-called ‘independent Balochistan’ - is as under:
i Cripple Pakistan by separating Balochistan (46 percent of its territory with large mineral resources, besides the future global port of Gwadar).
i Balkanised Pakistan forced to give up its nuclear arsenal.
i Establish India’s hegemony over Pakistan.
i Leftover US forces in Afghanistan and US controlled ‘new Balochistan’ to act as strategic central position for multi-regions.
i US controlled Afghanistan-Balochistan to link the Central Asian energy oil and gas pipelines with Gwadar.
i Delink Pakistan and Iran by carving out Balochistan and obviate the Iran-Pakistan energy/gas pipelines.
i Establish US military presence in Balochistan for upcoming US-Israeli war against Iran.
i Block Russia-Pak cooperation with Gazprom (Russian Gas Company) reaching Gwadar.
i Balochistan and Kurdistan to be artificially created to have imperialist bases in the heartland of Islam.
i ‘Independent Balochistan’ - a prelude for Kurdistan to break away from Turkey; separate Xinjiang and Tibet from China; Siberia from Russia; and separate Makkah and Madinah from Saudi Arabia.
i US military presence in Gwadar to control the Gulf. To use the port as an alternative for USA’s 5th fleet based in Bahrain or another fleet if brought near the Gulf.
i Use Gwadar as a military base for intervention in the Saudi Peninsula.
The rationale of these ill-intentioned pseudo thinkers is absolutely absurd. According to them, since the Pakistani elite is exploiting Balochistan, so it should be balkanised. Those who believe that Balochistan should not be a part of Pakistan are geopolitical imbeciles. Indeed, the propagandists making these claims are clueless about regional realities because:
i Pakistan: It will fight a war, even a nuclear war of national survival to defend itself.
i Iran: The Iranian Seistan is part of Balochistan, which the imperialists want to carve out. Therefore, Iran will fight a war in unison with Pakistan to defend Balochistan against the US threats.
i Afghanistan: The Taliban are winning; the Americans are leaving. No Afghan - not even Karzai - will cede the Afghan territory to become ‘greater independent Balochistan’. Nor can landlocked Kabul take up fights with both Islamabad and Tehran.
i Turkey: The Turks will support Pakistan and oppose independent Balochistan. Those who are plotting Balochistan also support Kurdistan to balkanise Turkey. Turkey will oppose Balochistan splitting by Nato, even if Nato is foolhardy to play the diabolical game of neocons.
i Saudi Arabia: The Saudis, too, will support Pakistan and oppose the Balochistan movement.
i India: It has been supporting the destabilisation of Balochistan and will continue to do so. But for India to overtly support Balochistan can lead to a nuclear war with Pakistan. Besides this can also trigger freedom movements in Kashmir, Khalistan, Assam, Tamil Nadu and a dozen other places. Playing the US-Israel game will spoil its relations with Iran, Russia and China.
i China: It will support Pakistan. USA’s aim in Balochistan is to block China from Gwadar. Balochistan today, Xinjiang tomorrow! China’s defence begins from Pakistan.
i Russia: It is Pakistan’s new friend. Besides, the Pak-Iran link is supported by Moscow.
So, the geopolitics of the region negates any viability of an independent Balochistan. In addition, anti-Americanism in Pakistan has a complex dynamic. The US meddling in Balochistan will not create an ‘independent Balochistan’, but will initiate a war, perhaps, leading to World War III.
The situation in Balochistan certainly demands immediate attention. Out of 150 Baloch tribes three major ones Marris, Bugtis, and Mengals have had problems or are in conflict. The issue of Bugtis is greatly linked to the murder of Nawab Akbar Bugti. A fair trial of those responsible is their demand. The Mengals can be communicated with. Some of the Marris leaders are more adamant and would need to be worked on. Pakistan needs to accommodate most of the Balochistan demands and satisfy the people, while ensuring its national interests. Half the demography of Balochistan which is Pakhtun are patriotic like the great majority of Baloch.
Bugti’s killing by Musharraf led to the present Balochistan crisis. The army or the ISI is not responsible. USA and India did not oppose Musharraf’s actions in Balochistan. This was a US-India baited gambit (to lure Musharraf into a crackdown and create turmoil for instigating independent Balochistan). Musharraf was praised by Washington and assured by Delhi of its non-involvement in Balochistan, luring him into the mess Pakistan faces today in the province. For all this time a covert war was being waged for claiming independence of Balochistan. During this period a worldwide network was established. This became overt in February 2012 as war with Iran is near centre stage in 2012. However, those who are planning war against Pakistan must be told that the choice is between peace and total war; indeed, the country will be defended at any price!
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army and is the author of the book Gwadar on the Global Chessboard.
Blog: wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com
Ron Paul – The American for Real Change
Nadir Mir
Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”
Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com/
The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.
Geopolitics of Peace is an Endeavour by Nadir Mir
Ron Paul, among Republican Party Candidates for 2012 US Presidential elections, is the American for real change. Reminding the world of virtues which had made USA a model for the world in yesteryears. Like many Great Americans, he is honest, brave, smart, honourable, generous and futuristic. Ron Paul a suave politician reminds folks of the American Revolutionary Spirit of 1776. Of the courage to stand up for truth, challenging conventional wisdom and chiseling a pragmatic road map for the future.
Cognizant of the fact that Neo-con led decade of 2000-2010 had ruined America, he advocates Neo atonement and redemption. As a patriotic American, he knows the good hearted people of USA were again being led astray by the pied pipers cabal of Globalists, Military-Industrial Complex and Neo- con remnants. This time the issue is more serious than declining at home and being over stretched abroad. If the War Lobby-cum Globalists have their way, they may drive USA into a World War (as a Ron Paul supporter, Benton exclaimed. ‘We need another armed conflict, like we need a hole in the head!)
Attacking Iran or Pakistan will be crossing the Rubicon. Putin had even earlier reportedly told his Generals ‘Prepare for Armageddon!’ Now after alleged interference from the west in Russian Politics has been termed as ‘an act of war’ by some Moscow Quarters (Imagine the mood in the Kremlin). The Chinese Navy was recently put on high alert by Beijing. Russia – China had coordinated their stance on Syria, to block the NATO onslaught. War beyond Syria, into Iran and Pakistan will spiral out of control regional war – Nuclear World War.
All this is taken into account by Ron Paul’s Geopolitical vision. He vehemently believes that the world does not need more wars. He also bravely accepts that one of the Nations which need rebuilding is called ‘United States of America’. His foreign policy is not simply isolationism, but of reducing Washington’s’ insatiable appetite as the Global Police Cop. He understands like many smart Americans do that USA can lead the world through its soft power, without recourse to hard power, or aggressive wars. (No matter how they are sugar coated, or made palatable on the basis of ‘American Exceptionalism or more recently ‘Terrorism Lexicon’)
Ron Paul and his supporters understand that even after building one aircraft carrier, the Chinese will face eleven US Carriers in the oceans (and bigger ones of Carl Wilson, class). They also remember that America won the decisive naval Battle of Midway, Second World War, with two aircraft carriers while sinking four Japanese Carriers, turning the tide in the Pacific. Even if Iran, builds ten nuclear bombs, Israel has hundreds and America can deploy thousands of nukes. Besides in high- hyper tech war no one match USA. No State Actor can hope to get away, after attacking America. The only Non State Actor Al-Qaeda is on the sights of US military power since a decade for this attempt. With two oceans for safety on the flanks, soft neighbours in the North and South, the USA has no one to fear- Except Itself. (Going overboard in its endless foreign wars, amidst a dwindling economy at home)
Ron Paul’s stance is based on courage and hope, not ‘instigated fear’. Historically USA would never have become such a great Nation without these virtues. From the ‘May Flower sailing to New England, the Thirteen Colonies seeking Independence, Boston Tea party, Lexington, Bunker hill, the star spangled banner, till the fall of Yorktown, the declaration of Independence was all about American Courage and Hope.
With fluctuations, this continued till the Cold War. Ironically after American Victory in the Cold War (termed by Francis Fukuyama as ‘End of History’) the ‘Fear Factor’ set in. Paul Kennedy had termed USA as a declining power (rise and fall are natural, as no nation can keep rising for ever). Still fear of America’s decline, or greed for foreign conquests, (corporate led) has made the ‘fear factor’ predominant in US Politics – Geopolitics. The last decade saw the ‘terrorist fear’ (exploited by Neo-Cons) taken to extreme. Obviously USA had to be made safe from all forms of foreign attacks, by Washington, but without losing balance (In the event the Americans lost their civil liberties, economic progress and are not winning their wars either)
As the American people (despite their diligence) face economic deprivation, the Germans in Europe, and Chinese in Asia are laughing all the way to their banks. The Germans and Chinese are role models of prosperity, (even as Turkey and Brazil join the new rich group). While the Americans are cursed globally for everything which goes wrong! (Due to America’s overextended Global Cop Role, it would be poorer at home and demonized abroad)
Great Americans who have been traditionally smart and futuristic know this is the wrong road. Time to change track! America needs fresh thinking –A New Narrative.
Ron Paul’s’ vision outlines a new America. The Ron Paul philosophy encompasses.
· Bringing US troops back home from Iraq, Afghan Wars, rather than starting new wars.
· Solving the Iran issue by means other than war.
· Building American Economy and reducing national debt.
· A relatively non interventionist stance in over all US foreign policy.
· Improving the lives of Americans at home and raising their prestige abroad. And a lot more!
(Many US war veterans having seen protracted and futile war at close quarters support Ron Paul) The Ron Paul theme is current, and populist. A radical thinker, albeit too radical for Republican tastes. Before Ron Paul contests the Democratic Party and President Obama, he has to match his own party mates. His concept for America is sound, the question –‘Is USA prepared for him’? Is the Ron Paul idea whose time has come? Or is he ahead of his times! Historically the Americans were revolutionaries in infancy, then turned conservative and now may see revolutionary cycle again.
After the First World War, the Americans became isolationists again! Isolation in American parlance however today has an entirely different context. Post First World War, when US GIs returned home it was 1919-1920 onwards. Today almost nine decades later a global world is an economically integrated world. It is US Geo-strategy which needs to be truncated and re chiseled not Geo-economics. America’s economic relations with Germany or China and the rest of the world would grow and not be curtailed, by saying goodbye to new, unwanted wars. A new era of peace and prosperity can be ushered. America can grow rich, strong and prestigious even without the military- industrial complex going in overdrive! That is the new idea!
Ironically Ron Paul is feared by fellow Republicans and assailed by opposing Democrats. Both the Elephant and the Donkey (the two party symbols need a new rider. The American people have to decide who that will be) Ironically it is already being said that US Presidential Election 2012 is boring, routine and uninspiring except for Ron Paul (of course this may not be true).
In the mean while, new radical thinking against the elite, or unbridled capitalism has also seeped in. ’Occupy Wall Street, LA’ etc though it still a minority. Will this become a tidal wave? Meanwhile US elections-politics is mostly conservative. As one foreign resident of USA said – ‘If they do not elect Ron Paul then God help America!’
If Ron Paul is elected president, a change towards peace and prosperity for USA and the world is expected. At least Third World War, towards which the world is edging, would most likely be averted. If the Republicans or Americans do not elect Ron Paul, he would still be credited with having tried his ideas for peace and prosperity.
Many great Americans did not become the President of the United States, but they stands tall, their stature undiminished. Ron Paul may then be one of them!
Peace in Afghanistan and the Good American
Nadir Mir
Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”
Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com/
The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.
Geopolitics of Peace is an Endeavour by Nadir Mir
The world needs peace in Afghanistan (which of course starts with a US troop withdrawal). America’s Vice President Joe Biden recently stated – “The Taliban per se is not the enemy” .This is a step towards peace, which should be welcomed by everybody. The ‘Good American’ Vice President Joe Biden has always been known for his upright character and forthright views. Even after 9/11, during Bush Administration, and Dick Cheney’s blustering, Joe Biden voiced his independent views. Among America’s elderly statesmen, he hopefully understands Afghanistan’s need for Peace. The World also needs to hear some Common Sense if not Geopolitical Sense from others in Washington!
Ironically Biden’s statement was assailed from a number of quarters within USA. The Washington Post was skeptical, others were critical.’ Biden Does It Again’ was Fox News. (Anyone who speaks the truth or logic or preaches peace is to be ridiculed by American Globalist Media, even if it is Vice President of USA!) War lovers termed it as” Biden’s Jaw Dropping Gaffe”. The Times of India was perplexed by Biden’s Olive Branch to Taliban! (Delhi had earlier absurdly convinced itself of Washington’s’ perpetual animosity for Taliban and was now amazed by its perfidy. Delhi has yet to learn Real Politik American Style!). US official sources soon clarified the contents implying Biden meant something else, even as Jay Carney defended it from the White House! Karzai from Kabul welcomed Bidens’ pragmatic statement, clarifying the need for ending the feud with Taliban.
The fact of the matter is that if Taliban are to be constantly demonized (A propaganda requirement after 9/11) and are undefeated, how does US Army withdraw from Kabul? (And also save face) If American troops do not leave (they cannot win anyway, even if they do not lose Dien Bien Phu fashion) the war gets protracted. As long as US troops remain, the Talibans resist. (The rest of NATO European Troops do not even count in Taliban Calculations) Not only Afghanistan is tragically destroyed by war (First Soviets now Americans) but Pakistan is destabilized. US- Pakistan relations have nosedived from ‘unstinted support’ to going conflictual. With Iran ‘A Point Of No Return’ according to the Atlantic and numerous other world views (Including this scribe’s ‘Next War Iran’ published in Pravda Ru.) The region is boiling!
In Afghanistan the Strategic Grand Climactic (Turning point) has been reached. Washington’s choice is to relent or escalate. Relent in Afghanistan preferably by negotiated settlement with Taliban, and Pakistan on board. The war weary American Public, with over 70% people want US troops pull out from Afghanistan. (America’s longest War in history). In Germany over 80% Germans want their military involvement finished in Kabul. Culturally rich and peace loving Germans, living affluent lives have no reason to prolong an endless and meaningless conflict.
Time in any case is against US – NATO. Not only does economic decline in USA and financial malaise in EU warrant an end to the Afghanistan War. The element of time is on the side of the Taliban. As Russian Asurenipal reminded the quote of stoic mountain warriors (Of Afghanistan) –addressing NATO –‘You have the Watches, We have the Time!
Vice President Joe Biden was right that the Taliban were not the enemy. Then the good people of USA would ask – why are we fighting the Taliban, if it is not the enemy? The simple answer – Time for Geopolitics of Peace. A negotiated Peace Agreement in Kabul to which Pakistan is a party and the Indians are not invited!
America’s soldiers should come home. Young American boys and girls should not die or be maimed anymore, in the treacherous mountains of Afghanistan. Nor Kill innocent Afghans or Pakistanis. The War has gone long enough. Are Ten Years not enough to prove that the American Soldiers are brave? How much more revenge does US seek for 9/11? But it’s also proven that the Taliban are even more tough and full of valour. Honouring a brave enemy is no dishonour (even if the Age of Chivalry is past –but not dead).
To end the confusion, who is America’s enemy? Those who attack America and those who drag USA into senseless - useless wars. After Osama Bin Laden’s killing by American Forces, 50-100 Al Qaeda operatives are estimated by US forces in Afghanistan and they are already decimated in Pakistan. Once the American Forces leave, peace will return, or strife will reduce in Afghanistan.
Now the news Mullah Omer’s name has been removed from the terrorist (FBI) list is even more welcome. The Afghan Taliban are heroic, frugal warriors, fighting a War of National Liberation (In their own perception). Departing US Troops have nothing to fear from the honourable Taliban. In any event after a decade long horrific war the Taliban also need peace. Yet the Globalists are disappointed. The liberal puppets of the region are pissing in their pants (due to indicators of US – Taliban peace prospects) and so called Regional Aspirant Delhi will learn an unforgettable lesson, if it tries to invade Afghanistan.
Vice President Joe Biden is now a Good American! Good Americans are those who are willing to move in the direction of peace. Bad Americans –Neocons, Globalists etc want to again conquer the world (and ruin USA!)The Good Afghans want peace, and exit of foreign forces (a prerequisite for peace). Good Taliban are basically freedom fighters, living their own lives, as per time honoured culture and traditions. Good Pakistanis want freedom from their own treacherous and corrupt elite and withdrawal of US forces from Pakistan and Afghanistan. (Good Pakistanis do not want extremism in any form) Peace at home, peace abroad. Bad Afghans and Bad Pakistanis are those who support foreign wars for their own petty ends. (A minority of liberal puppets living on alien dole) It is time for Geopolitics of Peace. Status quo or stalemate is past. The choice is US Exit Afghanistan for Peace or a Larger Regional War. The American Choice-leave Afghanistan now or lose both Pakistan and Afghanistan later. Only the demented (Indian funded) would choose the latter!
All sane, smart men and women would opt for Global Peace. The world needs Good Americans who withdraw all US Forces from Afghanistan, to usher an era of peace followed by prosperity. Peace in Afghanistan and Good Americans are now synonyms!
(Geopolitics of Peace is an endeavour by Nadir Mir)
Geopolitics of Confusion
Nadir Mir
Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”
Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com/
The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.
(Geopolitics of Confusion has been published in Pravda ru, Windows to Russia and Opinion Maker)
US – NATO attack on Pakistan
US – NATO attacked a non NATO Ally Pakistan!
The attack was unprovoked, wanton, cowardly and ruthless. It was open aggression and violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty. US – NATO aggression was condemned or Pakistan received support and sympathy from China, Russia, Iran, OIC (Saudi Arabia) – Turkey. Even UK expressed regrets; France supports an inquiry into the issue. Germany was obviously disappointed by Pakistan’s cancellation of participation at Bonn Conference
US filled with hubris even refused to apologize, while Delhi was gloating over the death of Pakistani Soldiers and its predicament. The Pakistani Nation is livid with rage and united to defend Pakistan. The American sanctioned attack (no other power on the planet can dare to attack Pakistan at its own) is radicalizing Pakistan. The beleaguered (mini minority) corrupt and treacherous elite in Pakistan are finding excuses to explain American aggression.
The time has come to end the Geopolitics of Confusion!
Firstly why was this aggression launched?
A long list of answers can be compiled, some are presented here:
· A strategy of deflection to keep away from the ‘Memo’.
· Gunship raid, attack (live) rehearsal – against Pakistan’s nuclear sites. (Helicopters at night used even earlier for ‘snatch operations’ like the Abbotabad Raid).
· Daily Beast article which claims this as ‘Obama’s Foreign Policy Doctrine’ and terms it as ‘Off Shore Balancing’ (with money and bravado in short supply, avoid land battle. Use of heliborne/drone/air power for foreign policy ends of USA).
· Condition Pakistan to stay prostrate during expected ‘war against Iran’ by Israel / US (urgency of expected strike on Persia)
· Intimidate Pakistan before Bonn Conference. (Absurd but irrational Globalists can do anything)
· Pakistan’s (offensive) containment. Degrade, disgrace Pakistan Army and drive a wedge in the Pakistani Nation. (The opposite effects have been achieved. The Pakistani Nation stands united and supports the Army vehemently)
Secondly who is with and against Pakistan?
With Pakistan stand its brave plus patriotic Armed Forces, and the nationalistically motivated people of Pakistan. The soldiers and masses stand together against foreign threats. Externally to varying – degrees Pakistan is supported by China – Russia – Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia – OIC. Almost the entire region is against US sponsored wars, or longevity for its military presence. The Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan are already in a state of war with USA. Most of the world respects Pakistan (Pakistan’s nomination to Security Council seat was testament). India is of course completely untrustworthy. It can always launch ‘Cold Start’ offensive on any pretext in harmony with US MILITARY STRIKE – against Pakistan. (In December a major Indian Army Exercise is underway in the deserts against Pakistan). Still the regional Geopolitics would have to be viewed by Delhi, more than Pakistan’s offer of MFN.
Russian support can prove a game changer for Pakistan. It would tilt the scales, Russia – China and not only China supporting Pakistan. Deterring USA to an extent, while inhibiting India from joining US for an attack on Pakistan. (Besides Pakistan’s conventional forces and nuclear deterrent – tactical weapons included, could keep India at bay)
The British even as America’s most Allied Ally are not openly clashing with Pakistan. (Both due to British Policy and British vulnerability at home. More so, the fate of the British Embassy in Tehran clearly indicates an Iranian – British clash). In fact Pakistan’s relations with the British, French and Germans (major NATO members) have been good. They could even be better if NATO withdraws from Afghanistan. (There would be little to have friction on). Pakistan – German friendship should improve further. Germany is the true and future leader of Europe and respected by Pakistanis.
Now the question who is against Pakistan?
A brutally candid answer is:
Firstly, Pakistan’s own corrupt, treacherous and incompetent elite, a mini minority which wants to keep robbing and exploiting the Pakistani Nation. They seek solace and work for foreign powers (USA – India). The treacherous elite would sell the Motherland for a song. They want to serve as slave overseers for a shackled Nation. Selling it to the first bidder. Yesterday it was USA alone but now it is USA – India. This is the Pakistan Corruption – Treachery Nexus, who are more loyal to Washington – Delhi than many Americans and Indians and of course Anti Pakistan. (After all in USA, Americans are challenging the system – Occupy Wall Street, LA etc or Anna Hazara ‘Anti corruption Drive’ in India)
Secondly the cabal of America’s Globalists, military – industrial complex, left over Neo cons who still want to conquer the world. (Despite being chastened in Iraq – Afghanistan). On the contrary, the good hearted, charity giving and amiable people of America many of whom are now questioning this perpetual war quest. They seek jobs and living at home rather than wars abroad! The White House and State Department are confused in the Geopolitical labyrinth of Afghanistan.
The war lovers of course love war. They want to continue the war in Afghanistan and start new ones in Iran – Pakistan! (Not divining that the combined Geopolitical space of Afghanistan – Pakistan – Iran – Iraq will prove a Giant Black hole (even for Uncle Sam).
Thirdly, Delhi the serpent, is always bidding its time to strike Pakistan. Still the complex and multi faceted (Delhi does not want to lose Tehran / Moscow affinity) regional Geopolitics weighs heavy on Indian minds. As does the fear of nuclear holocaust from a Pakistani response.
Veteran Indian Diplomat MK Bhadrakumar had predicted a ‘Persian Response’ by Pakistan for this attack, (asymmetrical plus Strategic Defiance). Simon Tisdall warning in ‘Pakistan has had enough’ had opinioned that an Iranian type Revolution in Pakistan could be one outcome in future.
‘A hot flash in the Cold War with Pakistan’ is how the Atlantic titled its article. The only people who still think in terms of an alliance in the Global War on terror are Pakistan’s dimwitted, thieving, treacherous elite! The rest of the world is quite clear on the real issues, which are:
· Pakistan’s Denuclearization (through ‘Memo of Treachery’ or American Geo strategy)
· America’s partial withdrawal from Afghanistan
From the MemoGate to Gunship attack etc, are all tactics of one supreme over arching strategy to denuke Pakistan. (War hawks controlled, Indian influenced).
Washington wants to keep its ‘Strike or Nuclear Grab Option’ open against Pakistan (before or after war with Iran). For this herculean task there are three pre requisites.
· Treacherous elite support within Pakistan. (Memo and related kind)
· Prepositioning, maintaining secret – clandestine forces, Special Forces in Pakistan in disguise. (To act as path finders, initial strike force)
· Afghanistan Bases (operations for denuking strike)
Without these three pre requisites any Strategic Denuclearization Scenario remains fiction and outside the realm of feasibility. (Any attempt against Pakistan’s nuclear sites will have catastrophic consequences any way).
Strategic logic dictates that all three pre requisites (for denuclearization attempt) be denied to foreign forces.
· The treacherous elite have to be marginalized.
· Secretly positioned clandestine foreign forces eliminated or expelled.
· Afghan Bases Denied. (Complete pull out of all foreign forces from Afghanistan has to be Pakistan’s avowed policy)
Besides Pakistan’s brave soldiers, the Nation stands united. China, Russia and Iran at the very least seek Pakistan’s strategic autonomy from NATO. EU – NATO can be divided more so with Turkish support. British are cautious, French non hostile, Germans Peace Seeking. In America, the Afghan war has divided them, even as they unite for the war against Iran.
Pakistan should lobby for:
· An immediate ceasefire in Afghanistan and Pakistan – Afghanistan border.
· The political face of Taliban for talks.
· Early resolution of Baluch problem, where Empire (US – NATO) will strike back in Pakistan. (The next front being attacked by western – Indian Geo-strategy – Charter of Freedom for Baluchistan etc)
· Complete and early withdrawal of all US – NATO forces from Afghanistan and Pakistan. (Disagree to any stay behind NATO forces in Afghanistan).
· Moscow – Islamabad synergism can prove a game changer. Supply routes to NATO in Afghanistan should be jointly blocked by Pakistan and Russia as part of a Peace Policy.
(‘Next War – Iran’ written by this scribe for Opinion Maker has been published by Pravda Ru and Windows to Russia. A view in Moscow is that Pakistan and Russia can together choke NATO in Afghanistan!)
· Pakistan needs to muster more tangible support from China, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey on Afghanistan while keeping it cool with India for the present (through diplomacy – deterrence).
The problem in Afghanistan is very simple.
The Americans lost the war, but do not want to admit it.
There is still time for them to declare victory and go home today. Tomorrow may be a different day!
Geopolitics of Peace
Nadir Mir
Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”
Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com/
The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.
Next War – Iran
The Geopolitics of the times may indicate that the next war is Iran. Although Pakistan being an established nuclear power would logically be higher on the scales of denuking agenda for so called globalists. Still Geopolitical logic dictates otherwise.
In Iran’s case, the American agenda is to prevent it from going nuclear. (Something which Pakistan achieved over quarter of a century ago – Enriched Uranium) The recent IAEA accusative report, Israel’s brinkmanship (you do it or we do it), American election fervour (attacking Iran is an election issue for 2012, at least for Mitt Romney Republican Presidential candidate), conservative Arab animosity for Revolutionary Iran (in future nuclear armed), Iran’s energy linkage to Russia – China, Iran’s defiance of USA plus western world, and finally the fear or perception of Tehran crossing the nuclear Rubicon combine for ‘Strike on Iran’.
The most likely version is an air and missile strikes or campaign (depending how the war progresses). Still a limited invasion cannot be ruled out (US has freed most of its forces from Iraq for the purpose).
PM Benjamin Netanyahu, National security advisor Uzi Arad and Defence Minister Ehud Barak plus numerous Israeli leaders of late are cajoling for a strike on Iran. American friends have joined the Iran demonization campaign. For nearly a decade, this crying wolf – Iran going nuclear – or need to strike has been going on. This time it looks for real. The problem is both Israel and Iran are supremely confident and itching to fight.
In one scenario, Israeli air force (100 F15E, F16IS, F16cs), plus land based missiles (jhericos) and two Dolphin submarines (firing cruise missiles) off Iran’s coast initiate the first blow. This may be a one – two blow i.e., missile strikes preceding or following the air strikes. Destroying as much as possible of Iranian nuclear projects (Natanz, Esfahan, Busher etc) with bombs and missiles. Tehran’s retaliation with missiles plus Hezbollah, Hamas rockets are absorbed by Israel. Threatening to up the ante (Nuke Iran) Tel Aviv (evoking paranoia of a Second Holocaust) drags USA into the war, to use its larger military muscle. The Iranians fight back (Iran will respond with full force has already been said by Ayatollah Ali Khameni). Though the high intensity war may fizzle out in weeks or months, a low intensity war may continue for years. The Arab – Islamic world would be inflamed, the western world divided. War drags on – at least the asymmetrical part is protracted.
‘The Point of No Return’ an article by the Atlantic makes clear the high probability of war with Iran. The Israelis are evasive on even if they would inform Washington about such a strike. An Israeli strike appears imminent now or in spring 2012 (winter is not considered ideal for such operations).
In fact the initial strategic moves have been initiated on the Middle East Geopolitical Chessboard. NATO is planning to intervene to achieve regime change in Syria. This is aimed at depriving Iran of its chief ally Syria and somewhat suffocating the Geopolitical space available to Hezbollah and Hamas. After Syria and Iran’s (claimed by US / NATO) isolation, the stage will be set for war on Iran initiated by Israel, US or jointly. Tehran’s revolutionary fervour which engulfed the British Embassy and reports of Libyan (NATO trained) fighters being shipped to fight against the Damascus Regime and a lot more are indicators of the gathering Great Storm.
Despite an election year if USA strikes Iran, it would obviously be a heavier punch than Israel. More so, it may not be limited to Iran’s nuclear establishment, but also aim at the Revolutionary Guards, military industrial – economic complex, ports, and communication infrastructure. In essence ‘Cave Age or Scorched Earth’. According to David Rothkopf (author of Super Class), it would be folly to assume President Obama cannot strike Iran due to an election year. By the same token, many Americans and Europeans are against an attack on Iran.
The British are unsure, the French hesitant, Germans Anti aggression, the Russians (Putin led) against an attack, the Chinese peace loving, even India and Pakistan may have similar views – (no attack on Iran). The world yearns for peace, but the Israeli leaders are preparing (even if the Israeli nation is divided on the issue). Good Americans want jobs at home not conflict abroad – but the war lobby wants war.
Attack on Iran plans have been on hold since President Bush era. Now in 2012, US Presidential campaign ‘most Republican Candidates’ except Ron Paul are for ‘bombing Iran’.
Interestingly America’s ex defenders Mr. Robert Gates, Admiral Mike Mullen, General Zinni etc have serious reservations on the ‘Persian Misadventure’. Even the present Defence Secretary Panetta (despite europhia of Bin Laden killing)’warned of unintended consequences!
Even more ironically the Israeli nation is divided by half on the subject. (After all the expected Iranian riposte of missiles, rockets and asymmetrical attacks is going to first of all target Israel). As a smart Israeli went to the extent of saying that if America was so worried about a ‘Second Holocaust’ it might fight Iran itself (without Israeli involvement). The Israeli Defence Forces even while confident are apprehensive and rightly so!
Still wise people in Europe, America and elsewhere are asking pertinent questions. A single Israeli Air strike will not be sufficient to totally destroy the Iranian nuclear projects, (delay it by 2 to 3 years), what next? If the US does not bomb Iran, what is the war termination strategy? Will it become a regional war by design or default? Will it escalate to nuclear realm?
What will be the impact on the Arab spring and Middle East? (Probably go hyper Anti Israel – Anti American!)
The reality is, there are no good answers. What if radioactivity due to Israel – US bombing reaches Nuclear Armed Pakistan and India? (Of course the Pakistani elite have no time for such issues. They are uninitiated into Pakistani Geopolitical issues, what to ponder about Iran?)
Unfortunately the fact is that an attack on Iran will adversely affect Pakistan in many ways. Pakistan will be surrounded by hostile India, unstable Afghanistan and warring Iran. Radioactivity leaks due to bombing may reach Pakistan! (Even handling Dengue Mosquitoes has been an uphill task). Inflame Shias, bring Iranian refugees, disrupt gas, oil import and bring Pakistan closer to the denuking agenda!
Reportedly the Russian PM Putin when recently briefed on emerging Geopolitics and probability of war told his generals, ‘Prepare for Armageddon’!
Putin – a great visionary leader is absolutely right. US – NATO attack on Iran would unleash ‘the hounds of hell’ not only for the victim state but the region around, the world at large and the attackers themselves!
The only viable solution in Global interest is ‘Geopolitics of Peace’. A comprehensive peace settlement from Mediterranean Sea to the Gulf to include Israel – Palestine, Israel – Iran issues. Plus pull out of all foreign troops from Afghanistan and Iraq. The need for denuking wars would stand obviated. The specter of hell on earth (for everybody) exorcised!
The Memo of Treachery
Nadir Mir
Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”
Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com/
The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.
The ‘Memo of Treachery’ has been considerably unveiled. Actually it is no great mystery. This is in fact the corruption, transfer wealth abroad – get foreign support – stay in power or acquire more power – money complex in action. Pakistani liberals (puppets) living abroad, posing as the ‘face of Pakistan’ the linchpin for this Faustian bargain. (Between Pakistani traitors and alien supporters).
It is certainly not about civilian control over the military establishment (which is a good thing). It is about corrupt, self serving elite, who seek foreign support to keep robbing the people of Pakistan. (Betraying Pakistanis is not an issue, but part of the agenda).
Without confusing the issue, the ‘Memo’ sent by some Pakistanis (with bank accounts, assets and residence abroad) sought foreign (Uncle Sam’s) support which by simple connotation meant:
§ Weaken Pakistan’s National Security by cutting ISI – Army down to size.
§ Invite US military forces in Pakistan for partial occupation (as if drones were not enough)
§ Exposing, denuding and ultimately compromising Pakistan’s nuclear projects. (Depriving Pakistan of its deterrent)
§ Handing over Pakistanis demanded by India. (Today militants, tomorrow hijab wearing women! Any one Delhi considers not friendly or not in love with Indian’s inequality based Brahman Order)
§ Practically advocating steps leading to Pakistani Nation’s eventual and complete enslavement to US Geopolitical diktat and Indian over lordship plus much worse. . . .
All that was asked by the authors of the treacherous memo was to be in power in Pakistan. (Along with their foreign based stolen wealth and to continue duping the innocent people of Pakistan forever).
Now even Admiral Mike Mullen (recipient of the memo) has recollected, after initial denial (a memory loss, apparently from too much work!) And confirmed the memo was sent by Pakistanis (friends of USA)
Hussain Haqqani the Pakistan Ambassador has obviously rejected Ijaz Mansoor, a Pakistani businessman, making this claim about the ‘Memo’. In any event Hussain Haqqani is better known as ‘America’s Ambassador for Pakistan in Washington’.
Reportedly and predictably Hussain Haqqani initially refused to return to Pakistan (gaining time to lobby in USA) and threatened to seek asylum in USA but later retraced. With an Ambassador like this who needs enemies!
In essence the ‘Memo’ is a clear case of treachery to the state of Pakistan. Articles in The News by Shaheen Sehbai and Muhammad Malick -- ‘The Treasonous Memo’ and from Ansar Abbasi – HH resignation alone will not be enough’ are timely, eye opening and riveting.
A complete, impartial inquiry by the Supreme Court would be in order. Hussain Haqqani’s resignation is not enough. He should be tried for treason in a fair trial. If found guilty he should be dealt under the law. (It was Hussain Haqqani who reportedly told the Americans, Pakistanis were like carpet merchants on price haggling issues!)
Not carpet merchants but Pakistanis are a proud, patriotic, peace loving, independence minded nation. (Except for a tiny, mini minority of self serving, thieving, foreign supported elite).
The nefarious characters involved in the plot to weaken ISI, dilute the army, invite American troops into Pakistani homes, compromise nuclear arsenal, accept every Indian demand and the long list of crimes of infamy are traitors of the worst order.
If they are not traitors then what is treachery to Pakistan? This is not about a clash between liberal puppets, pro western in outlook or radical extremists, fundamentalists. (That narrative is old – obsolete and boring). It is about the right of Pakistani Nation to live in peace and freedom, with security, prosperity and honour. An unfettered Nation – master of its own destiny!
Without being sold to the first bidder, invaded by America, threatened by India and betrayed by its own corrupt and treacherous elite. The time has come to squeeze the space on traitors of all hues. If Islamabad – Rawalpindi cannot deal with a ‘Rogue Ambassador’, what can it do?
A fair trial but heads must roll (literally). If those who betray Pakistan are not dealt today, it would be tragic.
But they will inevitably face justice tomorrow by the Pakistan Revolution!
Interview – Nida –e—Millat
How US can improve its image in Pakistan?
Regardless of US, Pakistan remaining allies or not, they were never destined to be enemies. Yet anti Americanism grows in Pakistan and frustration with Pakistan increases in America. Even though 'disenchanted allies' for long, the last decade, post 9/11 has resulted in a growing animosity. This is a result of American geopolitical naiveté, Pakistani wishfulness and Indian deceit creating an explosive brew. Yet there is a clear distinction between US and Pakistani global perceptions. US being a global albeit sole super power, has to worry about a long list of geopolitical rivals, allies, surrogates and fence sitters.
Washington has to relate to Putin’s Russia, China's rise, the Middle East Arab Spring, Turkish growth and independence, Iran’s defiance, North Korean wild card antics, European economic gloom etc. Besides the mess American Neo Con policy resulted in at home and abroad.
Pakistan's case is much simpler. Its geopolitical world is limited. Indian threat, Afghanistan issues and American relations are key subjects for now. Afghanistan the geopolitical square on the global chessboard for testing both! America’s stock in Pakistan has plunged to the lowest depth. (US / NATO attack on Pakistan is a turning point in the relationship). America needs Pakistan, while it is in Afghanistan. But Washington will need Islamabad even more later. Pakistan's geography is globally pivotal. (This scribe’s book 'Gwadar on the Global Chessboard' makes it quite evident). Pakistan’s demography will be the most numerous in the Muslim world. (3 billion Muslims by 2030). Pakistan may be the world's 3rd or 4th most populous state decades from now. According to Mr. Bruce Riedel (former CIA and advisor to President Obama) Pakistan will possess the world's 4th or 5th biggest nuclear arsenal in the next decade. The key question Americans should address – how to improve its image in Pakistan?
A few cardinal points to ponder are presented here:
People
The only people who are duped by Fox TV, Neo Con plus Globalists Media etc are some gullible Americans. The rest of the world including Pakistanis are quite clear about these issues. Even if the majority of Pakistanis lack high end education, there is ample rustic wisdom in the Pakistani Nation. America’s constant reference to Pakhtoons, Baloch, Punjabis, Sindhis, Sunni, Shia etc, are seen as attempts to divide the Pakistani people. As is US patronage of dictator dispensation and elite, viewed as corrupt plus treacherous by many in Pakistan. Washington's investment in Pakistani liberals is also a complete waste as far as containing extremism is concerned. Pakistani Nationalists with moderate views are the best recipe for dealing with extremists of various hues. Pakistan's liberals are frequently and often correctly seen as puppets with self aggrandizing agendas. Many NGOS have been discredited due to American links. Even European or other western NGOS, organization have fallen in disrepute (for no fault of theirs) as being fronts and full filling US agenda.
Bottom line: ‘Befriend the people of Pakistan'.
Nukes
Pakistani nukes though guarded by its military are the pride of the nation. In a country of corrupt elite, hungry and angry people, internal and external threats, the nukes are seen as deterrents, equalizers and symbols of national pride.
Relentless American inspired propaganda against Pakistani nukes – missiles (even if contributed by India and others) is threatening, shocking and pride snatching for Pakistanis. Indo – US nuclear deal is nuclear apartheid for Pakistan. (Regardless of what Americans say about AQ khan’s affairs). Pakistani Nation would prefer nukes to be used if it ever faces – ‘use them or lose them scenario’.
The average Pakistani knows that India does not have the capability or courage to attempt nuclear defanging of Pakistan. But the Gungho – cow boys might attempt it, resulting in a regional – global catastrophe.
Bottom line: US should accept 'Nuclear Pakistan' and stop its tirade against it.
Centre of Gravity
Centre of Gravity
Geopolitically speaking ISI – Pakistan military is the centre of gravity. Though over all historically speaking, it is the freedom spirit of the Pakistani Nation. A concerted campaign against ISI and Pakistan military, amounts to degrading its centre of gravity. (After ten years of Pakistani sacrifices in blood, treasury, infrastructure, national emotions in the so called global war on terror).
Bottom line: US should abandon attempts to divide Pakistani Nation from ISI – Armed Forces and forgo demonizing them.
Kashmir
Genocide in Kashmir by Indian Army has resulted in hundreds of thousands of Kashmiris killed, besides thousands of Kashmiri women raped. US intervention in Bosnia, Libya and numerous other places was for much less. Unresolved Kashmir is the core issue preventing peace in South Asia. By condoning Indian war crimes (2000 plus in unmarked graves recently identified in Indian held Kashmir), US is aggravating the problem.
Bottom line: Help resolve the Kashmir issue
Afghanistan
The majority of Pakistanis want peace in Afghanistan. Peace cannot prevail until foreign forces leave Afghanistan, whether by agreement or by quick exodus. As long as foreign forces remain, the Afghans will resist. It is not a question of Haqqanis involvement or anyone else for that matter but of US departure.
Bottom line: US should relent and withdraw all its forces from Afghanistan. A negotiated peace agreement in Afghanistan involving Pakistan is the solution.
A history of US betrayal haunts Pakistani minds. The current issue is not US walking away from Kabul but installing Indians before departure. As American drone strikes killing many innocents signify US hubris, entrenching Indians in Kabul would once again prove American betrayal. If Washington does this, it will lose the Pakistani nation’s confidence. Any US or US sponsored attempt, be it diplomatic or military against Pakistan’s nukes, would end Pakistani nation’s relations with USA forever. (And create a sea of radioactive hostility).
So far the PERCEPTION of American strategy towards Pakistan has been:
§ Patronize liberal puppet elite
§ Divide Pakistani nation
§ Demonize ISI, nuclear, military in Pakistan.
§ Support the enemies of Pakistan to destabilize and encircle it.
§ Aim to denuclearize and balkanize it.
Obviously this has resulted in the lowest level of US – Pakistan relations in history. Going further down can best be summed up by the German philosopher’s famous quote.
Friedrich Nietzsche
Geopolitics of Peace
Nadir Mir
Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”
Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com/
The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.
Confusion or Containment for Pakistan
Mr. Bruce Riedel’s (ex CIA, advisor to US President) recent article was titled ‘Containment of Pakistan’. It would be more appropriate to title it as ‘Confusion or Containment for Pakistan’.
Mr. Riedel had accused Pakistani Generals of Neo blasphemy – ‘not believing in an American victory in Afghanistan!’ The fact is that the majority of people in Afghanistan itself and neighbouring Pakistan, Iran, Central Asian states, China, Russia, besides the cultured people in Europe and rest of the world do not believe in an American victory. Smart Americans mercifully now in majority realize the Afghan War is lost. Thinkers and writers like Eric Margolis, Michael Scheuer and others have been saying it for years. Ironically the definition of US victory in Kabul keeps changing.
The aim and end of war (primary principal of war) itself seems to be more slippery than an eel. So to use American parlance – ‘Mission Creep’. Since the war in Afghanistan is not won (nor can be won) blame the Haqqanis, Taliban, Pakistan and anybody else in the neighbourhood. Gore Vidal, a great American writer had aptly titled his book ‘Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace’.
For ten years Pakistan was a non NATO Ally (rather not wanted Ally). Then it was graded as FreEnemy (friend – enemy) and now Mr. Bruce Riedel suggests containment of Pakistan (which is a policy option of dealing with enemies). To put the record straight, out of the trillion dollars war effort Pakistan received under $20 billion, while suffering $70 billion losses. Of course the pain, anguish, bereavement of nearly 40,000 casualties suffered by Pakistan cannot be measured in tangible term. Certainly they don’t matter to war mongers and their ilk. (Mouth pieces of the military – industrial – financial complex).
Patriotic and smart Americans would not worry about ‘Waziristan’ but about ‘Wall Street, considering the economic malaise at home. Conversely, the globalists want a new war with Pakistan and Iran (may be with Turkey, Saudi Arabia) followed by China and Russia. A strategy of deflection, to divert attention from problems at home. The capitalist cabal system is under attack! So when are these low paid, deprived, lower middle class, but good Americans going to be termed as anarchists, miscreants and terrorists? (May be inspired by OBL from his watery grave – if the American account was true!)
Washington can try ‘Containment of Pakistan’ (with all the consequences) but containment of its military is simply absurd. The Pakistan military is a part of the nation like US military is a part of America. Obviously Washington – Delhi propaganda tries to drive a wedge between the Pakistani people and their soldiers. Civilian supremacy remains a supreme concept. The problem is that the corrupt elite in Pakistan which the Americans and the Indians want to pamper, don’t represent the nation. They are perceived as puppets. The American quest for a pliant Pakistan subservient to India (turning hostile to China) is rejected by the same civilians and common Pakistanis Mr. Riedel claims to be supporting.
Furthermore, the notion that Pakistan Army is ambitious in terms of Afghanistan is preposterous! America led NATO has waged a decade long horrific war. Before US exit, hostile Indians want to entrench themselves in Kabul. (Even as a number of Indian Strike Corps mass on Pakistan’s borders under the garb of Winter Exercise 2011). Millions of Afghan refugees are sheltering in Pakistan. Kabul refuses to rectify the Durand Line agreement (not even fence it for security reasons). US / NATO troops concentrate on Waziristan borders, escalating drone strikes, threatening special operations, massing hardware for a mini ‘Shock and Awe’, posturing for an air campaign and the works! What is the Pakistan Army expected to do? It can’t be ‘contained and cooperative’ at the same time!
Finally Mr. Riedel’s obsession with Pakistani nukes (or is he voicing some sinister agenda). Even if Mr. Riedel’s view of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal becoming 4th or 5th largest in the world is true, so what is the problem? The Pakistani population by some estimates may be also 4th – 5th largest in the world. What’s wrong with the 4th – 5th largest country having that big a nuclear arsenal?
Containment of Pakistan may retard Pakistan but also forsake the geopolitics of peace. A cornered, bullied and threatened Pakistan will turn more nationalistic or militant. It will not become the dove which some misguided Americans funded by neo rich Indians desire. A geopolitical realignment may follow. Squeezed by Americans and Indians on two fronts, Pakistan will seek new allies – China, Iran, Saudi Arabia even Russia, while fraternizing with Turkey.
A contained Pakistan on two fronts will lead to conflict. The Afghan War may extend to Pakistan, Iran and India. A vast war region, with peace prospects diminishing by the day. An all out war can spiral out of control, go nuclear, destroying the region and affecting the globe. In case of a limited conflict, even if the Pakistan Military is bruised, beaten or humiliated in battle with American – Indian forces, (unlikely in a short span) the change in Pakistan will not be what Mr. Riedel had hoped for. In an emotionally charged, nationally hysterical public mood, pliant – puppets will not come to power. Radical minded revanchists could usurp power.
Another possibility is a revolution sweeping Pakistan. If the Arab brothers can have a spring, good people of USA can ‘Occupy Wall Street’ and Ayatollahs in neighbouring Iran bring a revolution (1979), why not Pakistan? A revolution would be the best thing for Pakistan. But the revolutionaries don’t take diktat from foreign powers – the historical legacy so far.
The cause of peace can be best served, not by ‘Pakistan’s containment’ but by US Exit from Afghanistan through a ‘Negotiated, Peace Yielding Settlement’. This is the advice expected from sages, and geopoliticians who seek a peaceful and prosperous world for tomorrow.
(Geopolitics of Peace is an endeavor by Nadir Mir)
Published: May 28, 2011
‘US-India nexus bent upon splitting Balochistan’
LAHORE – American and Indian interests in Gwadar coincide hugely, and both are bent upon splitting Balochistan in order to materialise its nefarious designs of truncating Pakistan and Iran, and denying Chinese access to the Port.
This has been maintained by Brigadier (retd) Nadir Mir, who has written ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’, a comprehensive study of the Port, for which he claims to be ‘the architect’. He asserts that he was involved with the project since ‘providence brought him to the stage’.
Mir believes that Gwadar has all possibilities of economic resurgence – ‘conduit for ailing economy of Pakistan’ – since it will act as a multiregional link up utilising Pakistan’s pivotal global geography, and connecting different regions like China with the Gulf, Afghanistan and the Indian Ocean. To him, after access given to China, Russia and the Central Asian Republics, Pakistan will be the direct beneficiary. “It is a twist of irony that today Pakistan is inviting Russia to warm waters after the former USSR’s attempt was foiled by us,” he mentioned, adding that the step could end Pakistan’s dependence on others since huge number of job, services, and assignments would be created, and Balochistan will become the richest province of all.
Mir avers that there are three aspects of the Balochistan problem; first, injustice has resulted in grievances, and the Baloch are not getting fair deal. Secondly, the biggest blunder was committed by killing Nawab Akbar Bugti leading to further alienation. And foreign influence, especially of India and US, has further aggravated the situation. “Baluchistan will achieve independence. For New Delhi this opens a window of opportunity to ensure that Gwadar Port does not fall into the hand of the Chinese. In this there is synergy between the political objective of the Americans and the Indians,” he quoted Indian Defence Review, adding that India wanted to control the India Ocean and build new water navy to block the Chinese. “India has been planning and systematically building asymmetrical resistance in Balochistan having identified it as Pakistan’s Achilles’ heel. For this, India has been using West Asia, safe house and consulates in Afghanistan,” he mentioned.
LAHORE – American and Indian interests in Gwadar coincide hugely, and both are bent upon splitting Balochistan in order to materialise its nefarious designs of truncating Pakistan and Iran, and denying Chinese access to the Port.
This has been maintained by Brigadier (retd) Nadir Mir, who has written ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’, a comprehensive study of the Port, for which he claims to be ‘the architect’. He asserts that he was involved with the project since ‘providence brought him to the stage’.
Mir believes that Gwadar has all possibilities of economic resurgence – ‘conduit for ailing economy of Pakistan’ – since it will act as a multiregional link up utilising Pakistan’s pivotal global geography, and connecting different regions like China with the Gulf, Afghanistan and the Indian Ocean. To him, after access given to China, Russia and the Central Asian Republics, Pakistan will be the direct beneficiary. “It is a twist of irony that today Pakistan is inviting Russia to warm waters after the former USSR’s attempt was foiled by us,” he mentioned, adding that the step could end Pakistan’s dependence on others since huge number of job, services, and assignments would be created, and Balochistan will become the richest province of all.
Mir avers that there are three aspects of the Balochistan problem; first, injustice has resulted in grievances, and the Baloch are not getting fair deal. Secondly, the biggest blunder was committed by killing Nawab Akbar Bugti leading to further alienation. And foreign influence, especially of India and US, has further aggravated the situation. “Baluchistan will achieve independence. For New Delhi this opens a window of opportunity to ensure that Gwadar Port does not fall into the hand of the Chinese. In this there is synergy between the political objective of the Americans and the Indians,” he quoted Indian Defence Review, adding that India wanted to control the India Ocean and build new water navy to block the Chinese. “India has been planning and systematically building asymmetrical resistance in Balochistan having identified it as Pakistan’s Achilles’ heel. For this, India has been using West Asia, safe house and consulates in Afghanistan,” he mentioned.
He observes that self-serving dispensation of Musharraf, under US pressure and to appease India, Gwadar was not given to the Chinese. About Indian interests in Balochistan, Mir is of the view that the Indian aim of destabilising Balochistan is manifold. First, quid pro quo for Pakistan’s alleged interference in the Indian-Held Kashmir, severing Balochistan and bringing it under its hegemony. Secondly, India wants denial of Gwadar’s control to Pakistan since from here our Army and Navy can navigate Indian shipping to stalk Indian plans since the Port is located at mouth of Gulf.
Thirdly, Gwadar will bring Pakistan closer to the Gulf Arabs since the proximity will develop relations damaging to the Indian interests. “Despite all drama of Confidence Building Measures and dialogue, India sees Pakistan as zero-sum game.
Our any strength is in disadvantage of India,” he opined, adding that American and Indian stakes coincide tremendously in Gwadar. While referring to Selig S. Harrison’s article ‘The Chinese Cozy Up to the Pakistanis’, Mir mentions that the US has been recommended to work for independence of Balochistan. “Think tanks and lobbies in the west, which if not for any other reason, blackmail Pakistan and talk about splitting Balochistan.
Even in the neocon era of Bush Junior, new Middle East map had been shown independent Balochistan truncating Pakistan and Iran, while blocking the Chinese access to Gwadar,” he maintained.
Thirdly, Gwadar will bring Pakistan closer to the Gulf Arabs since the proximity will develop relations damaging to the Indian interests. “Despite all drama of Confidence Building Measures and dialogue, India sees Pakistan as zero-sum game.
Our any strength is in disadvantage of India,” he opined, adding that American and Indian stakes coincide tremendously in Gwadar. While referring to Selig S. Harrison’s article ‘The Chinese Cozy Up to the Pakistanis’, Mir mentions that the US has been recommended to work for independence of Balochistan. “Think tanks and lobbies in the west, which if not for any other reason, blackmail Pakistan and talk about splitting Balochistan.
Even in the neocon era of Bush Junior, new Middle East map had been shown independent Balochistan truncating Pakistan and Iran, while blocking the Chinese access to Gwadar,” he maintained.
Geopolitics of Peace – 1 by Nadir Mir
Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”
Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com/
The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.
Geopolitics defined in multi ways is also ‘war politics among nations!’ When major powers clash, it leads to a great war. Ironically, the Clausewitzian notion of ‘war being the continuation of policy’ appears to be turned upside down. As detractors and peace advocates lament ‘policy is the continuation of war’! Again Clausewitz interjects ‘if policy is grand so will war be!’ The so called globalists (left over Neo Cons plus new converts) whisper aloud that they want another ‘Grand War’ as Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya were not enough. War with Iran was aborted or delayed and has left them heartbroken.
So now Geopolitics is leaning towards a new rumored war against Pakistan and possibly Iran, as is being projected by some US think tanks. This includes the Huttington, ‘clash of civilization theorists’ plus propagandists and balkanists as appearing in the Huffington Post. Even Henry Kissinger the ever green American Geostrategic sage has talked of the ‘Balkans of the next World War’. This war if ever fought would be the most tragic – suicidal war. Without aim and end, with little to gain and a lot to lose by all. Besides peaceful alternatives are available. The futility of a ‘Great War’ or the ‘Reign of Total Chaos’ needs to be understood before understanding the value of peace. The world needs an era of peaceful prosperity; therefore let us dwell on the ‘Geopolitics of Peace’.
First the global geopolitical environment must be grasped pragmatically. The Western World’s dominance in world affairs appears to be fading. At least the global economics balance is tilting away from the Western World. Much before 2020, China may rival the US economy. America today faces a serious debt default. If the US economy has slowed down the EU has its own ailments. In a nut shell, Western monopoly on global wealth stands challenged and rebuked by Eastern and other global economies. Strategically – militarily, Russia has made a comeback. Though there can be no invasion Soviet fashion, post Georgia, Moscow has drawn the Rubicon. Heart land Russia is confident, tactically cooperative yet strategically hostile to the West.
By contrast US – NATO spent a decade chasing elusive, asymmetrical Islamic antagonists. Bogged down in protracted war, US – NATO, after facing resilient Taliban in Afghanistan and stoic Iraqi resistance, forayed into the Libyan adventure. US unilateral raid in Abbotabad, Pakistan has surged Anti Americanism. But Anti Americanism is not confined to Pakistan, but shared in Iran, Turkey, Arab World and a large global swathe.
The Western world’s decline and rise of the rest (Farid Zakriya) has been further compounded by the Middle East revolutionary fervour. Yet US hyper war military remains pre-dominant, even as Robert Gates “avoid land war in Asia” warning must be heeded. American Geo Strategy is at a turning point. Pakistan – Iran – Afghanistan – Turkey – Saudi Arabian Peninsula – India are all Rim land players. A new contest may be starting. If the Bush Neocon era symbolized the –‘encirclement of Russia’, a new era may be on the horizon. The Obama Admistration cajoled by left over Neocons, friendly India, and persuasive Israelis is in a bind over Pakistan – China. The Geopolitical question is to relent or escalate? Yet Saudi Peninsula – North Africa also beacons Western – American attention. Post Osama period marks a defining moment for America. Logic, US economic malaise and war weary American public want the troops back home. The globalists want ‘perpetual war’. Peaceful deinduction is the logical step from Afghanistan. Still hubris, miscalculation, greed and ill advice can lead to a Cold War with China and Hot War in the region. Though the global environment may not replicate a century earlier but still Mark Twain was apt ‘history may not repeat but it does rhyme’.
Historical perspective
First World War (1914 to 1919)
The final spark was the murder of Arch Duke Ferdinand. Yet the real cause of the ‘Great War’ was intra European Geopolitics. The power plays of many nations and empires but finally the rise of Germany and Britain’s avowed ‘policy of confronting rising powers on the continent’, all led to this catastrophic world event. The roots of the ‘Great War’ may have gone a hundred years to the fall of France after Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo in June 1815. The European War turned into a World War, bleeding the youth of Europe and destroying a generation. European empires fell, societal and revolutionary upheaval followed. Who gained, not the direct contestants. In any event, the seeds of the next World War were laid.
Second World War (1939 to 1945)
After twenty years of uneasy peace and turbulence in Europe, the Second World War began lasting from 1939 to 1945. The Treaty of Versailles and Hitler’s proclivity for brinkmanship were not the only reasons, for the Second World War. Hitler despite being the great propagandist did not have a flair for Geopolitics. The Western World was saved more due to Hitlerian blunders than its own prowess. In any event, from the ruins of Berlin and millions dead rose the Cold War.
Cold War till 1991 and beyond
Practically, the Soviet Union contest lasted from 1945 till 1991, leading to the demise of the Soviet Union and victory for Washington’s Alliance. Still Francis Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ was to prove illusionary and he was forced to rewrite ‘After the Neo Cons’. The Bush Administration and Neo Con Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq led to a global human disaster, besides Geopolitical remaking. Neither did it benefit the image or treasury of the United States to put it mildly. (Some claims figure in terms of 2,25000 total fatalities and $4 trillion direct and indirect expenditures – losses).
1991 was in a sense the high point of American power and prestige. 1991 to 2011 is ironically again a twenty year gap like between First and Second World War. Another Great War or even Cold War does not make sense. This time there is no Hitler not even Saddam, Bin Laden or even Gaddafi as sparks to a larger conflagration. Merely, successful politicians! Like President Zardari and his friend President Karzai, both democratically elected!
So where are the Balkans of Mr. Kissinger? Where does the new war start? And for what -- Afghanistan – Pakistan – Kashmir – Iran. Instead of US withdrawal from Afghanistan, it is being goaded in the ‘denuclearization scenarios’ of Pakistan by some US globalists and Indian extremists. Even as good hearted, charity giving Americans are seeking withdrawal of their forces to end Afghanistan’s endless war and its outrageous expenses. Any American attempt to denuclearize Pakistan would also extend to Iran, which is considered a greater existential threat by Israel. This would result in a larger war against Pakistan and Iran.
Similarly, any attempt at Baluchistan balkanization would again involve Pakistan and Iran as the Iranian part is called Seastan bordering Pakistani Baluchistan. This would bring Pakistan and Iran in a holy alliance of national survival, something which American Geopolitics is loath off. Some extremists in India and so called globalists think tanks want Baluchistan Balkanized or Pakistan cut into four pieces. So Indian hegemony and American presence can share common borders in West Asia – South Asia! Apart from the moral and international, legal question of advocating cutting a country into pieces, this does not look like Geo strategy but ‘naive hallucinations’. Forced into a corner, Pakistan and Iran will defend themselves and probably combine their assets; it will lead to a radical realignment not suited to American Geopolitical interests. Those who are pushing the ‘war agenda’ are not Geo politicians or Geo strategicans, but merely propagandists. Hitler was the best propagandist but naive at Geopolitics – the world knows his fate and the suffering of the world.
Predictable Scenario
If Pakistan is squeezed by US – India nexus, it would logically be forced into a new Geopolitical arrangement. In the event, Pakistan would fully embrace China, Iran, SCO – Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in a maximalist mode. The low intensity war with prospects of converting in hot war would include the Geopolitical space of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and Kashmir – India. This could lead to an extended /all out war – nuclear war.
A New Cold War?
The Geopolitical realignment might see SCO with new members, Pakistan and Iran or linked to SCO as a strategic new entity. It could lead to a Cold War between America and NATO on one side and China and Pakistan, Iran on the other side. SCO and Russia would most likely join China. South Arabia and Turkey both close to Pakistan would oppose US/NATO conflict with Pakistan. India though a strategic partner of USA may not confront China, more so, if Russia and SCO were aligned with Beijing. The great Chinese in their eternal wisdom already talk of a ‘new security architecture for Asia’. NATO rather EU is not keen on confrontation/Cold War with Russia – China. An extreme version of this scenario in future could be a new SCO vs. old NATO. Such a Cold War spreading would convert the world again into the Bi Polar World. With a difference, that a declining Western World faces China – Russia combined. Heart land Plus supported by many Rim land powers, no longer allied and controlled by the Americans. Such a contest would hasten America’s own decline, regardless of the damage American power can inflict on others.
Even if the contest is focused on a smaller region that is Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan and by extension India, Saudi Peninsula and Turkey, it would not be in America’s Geopolitical interest. These vast geographic spaces, exploding demography, military resistance, asymmetrical potential and nuclear destruction would create a giant black hole for America. War and radicalization would extend to the Middle East and to some parts of Africa. If the American cause in Afghanistan was a few thousand militants, radicalizing hundred of millions may prove counterproductive in Central – Southern Eurasia and Africa. This may even prove overwhelming for US and NATO in the medium to long term. Dealing with a few thousand Yemeni militants is one thing and confronting millions in Pakistan – Iran is another. Asymmetrical war has no front, flank or center. This war could well extend to Europe and America itself which is in nobody’s interest.
In such a war scenario, US/NATO would sink in a deepening quagmire in Southern Eurasia. After ten years long war in Afghanistan, it would be a much greater geopolitical disaster. With the US economy in severe recession, it could be termed as not misadventure but simply absurd. Direct American military intervention would confront the numerous demography of these vast regions. The losers would be the direct contestants (US and NATO) besides the nations of these regions, as happened in both First and Second World Wars. The winners would obviously be Russia and China – SCO.
So what is the solution? The answer is ‘Geopolitics of peace’. A new Geopolitical paradigm is the solution. Numerous state actors some non state actors and lobbies are involved in this affair. Still the minimalist -- doable aims of US, China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, EU and even Israel have to be factored in to achieve consensus for peace. Not only in Afghanistan but the regions around. Pakistan cannot be expected to compromise on its national interests nor China on its global rise. Still there is everything to gain and nothing to lose from a negotiated, durable, peace settlement. Not only for the regional countries but the world at large. The Geopolitics of peace is the way forward. A civilized and prosperous world and not the prospects of another World War or even a New Cold War.
well done sir I read your column in the Nation" Kashmir Is Pakistan", so real and I like it. I have pasted it on my personal blog with you name and picture, you can visit it on . www.4kashmir.blogspot.com ,
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thanks
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